Bitcoin - Part 2

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Dr.Sid said:
Pfft .. you linked an article from Onion :D
Oh wait ..
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With Bitcoin it's impossible to tell the difference between parody and reality.

"he wants to use bitcoin to quell an economic crisis so severe people are finding it difficult to pay for necessities (food is in such short supply... And then after that, it's all about securing the funding..."
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Incredibly naive attempt to manipulate a country's economy, or a scam?

Venezuela’s Hyperinflation and Coins Falling from the Sky
Jonathan Wheeler is so inspired by blockchain technology and the potential of cryptocurrencies that he has taken the decision to dedicate his attention to it full time in his personal capacity.

“I’m abruptly leaving my job so that I can focus 100% of my efforts on driving the mission of leveraging Bitcoin to solve Venezuela’s hyperinflation,” he wrote.
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Hmmm...

Wheeler describes himself as a “passionate investor, blockchain enthusiast, software engineer, entrepreneur, dreamer, inventor, and activist.”
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...and nutcase. I'm going with 'incredibly naive'.

But there are some interesting tidbits in those articles,

"To the duo, that's especially true now that bitcoin has the lightning network – a layer-two technology expected to help the cryptocurrency scale by pushing transactions off-chain."
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Blockchain not good enough? But it's supposed to be revolutionary!

"Wheeler realized one of the major pain points to bitcoin adoption among those citizens is that it's generally so difficult to use."
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Bitcoin too difficult to use? Say it isn't so!

"with the market for crypto tokens so hot right now, he and his team would be able to raise much more money"
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So hot that its 'worth' as an asset has dropped by 66% since January. Venezuela might do better putting its faith in an asset that is actually appreciating in value right now - like oil for example (I hear they have a bit of that lying around...).

As a currency Bitcoin has inflated by 192% so far this year, with no guarantee it won't continue to lose value. Instead of 'airdropping' $300 million in inflationary Bitcoins they could inject a similar amount of a more stable currency such as US dollars (though sadly the effect would probably be similar).

Wheeler concluded by saying that “If we successfully pull off this mission, it has the potential to become one of the greatest socioeconomic experiments in the history of the world, and I don’t think that’s hyperbole. It would be like witnessing the first atomic bomb go off
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More likely it will simply bomb, but the idea that a private group of naive do-gooders (or cynical scammers) could 'bomb' a country's economy is still scary.
 
Crash pending, happy thread.
The crypto hoax is unravelling.
Defence of 6000 failed, freefall to 1600?
 
Looking at the graph it seems there is a fairly steady trend (almost linear) from 10,000. Not much in the way of upward breaks.

Could we expect to see some acceleration downwards as people panic?
 
PartSkeptic said:
Looking at the graph it seems there is a fairly steady trend (almost linear) from 10,000. Not much in the way of upward breaks.

Could we expect to see some acceleration downwards as people panic?
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Decline held, currently at $6369. The fall will continue, however. And it is indeed pretty linear down from $10,000. As it crosses people's buying levels during the pre-Christmas boom, panic may increase as all hope of a substantial recovery must sooner or later vanish from even the most deluded mind.
 
Craig B said:
Decline held, currently at $6369. The fall will continue, however. And it is indeed pretty linear down from $10,000. As it crosses people's buying levels during the pre-Christmas boom, panic may increase as all hope of a substantial recovery must sooner or later vanish from even the most deluded mind.
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These sharp rallies can be achieved on small volume, and are probably orchestrated by panicking vested interests, who have no hope of liquidating their holdings without causing a crash. The gross turnover in the futures market looks to be about 6 million a day, compared to trillons in the physical fx markets.
 
psionl0 said:
Price at time of prediction: $11,558
Price at end of January: $10,109
Current price: $6,326

Just to be kind to you I assumed you meant the end of June. The price at the beginning of June was around $7,500.
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Direction is where the profit lies, but no point repeating myself.
My oil thread is going gangbusters but people lose interest too quickly.
If I did just what I posted I would do better than I achieve ironically.
Shorting bitcoin is tricky because the futures contracts only last a month, but I note they are all quoted at the same price, so that is a help.
 
Samson said:
Direction is where the profit lies, but no point repeating myself.
My oil thread is going gangbusters but people lose interest too quickly.
If I did just what I posted I would do better than I achieve ironically.
Shorting bitcoin is tricky because the futures contracts only last a month, but I note they are all quoted at the same price, so that is a help.
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People lost interest when it became apparent that you cherry pick predictions, ignore or rationalize the ones you get wrong, and pretend that's not what you're doing.
 
The_Animus said:
People lost interest when it became apparent that you cherry pick predictions, ignore or rationalize the ones you get wrong, and pretend that's not what you're doing.
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Really?
So when I started the oil thread what was the prediction?
Its a serious call to start a thread with a specific prediction.
 
Samson said:
Really?
So when I started the oil thread what was the prediction?
Its a serious call to start a thread with a specific prediction.
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Had someone predicted bitcoin would be at 10,000 in June it would be horribly wrong and off by 3,500. You predicted penny dreadful, making you off by over 6000. But the direction was right so somehow that translates in your brain as a win.

You're not fooling anyone
 
The_Animus said:
Had someone predicted bitcoin would be at 10,000 in June it would be horribly wrong and off by 3,500. You predicted penny dreadful, making you off by over 6000. But the direction was right so somehow that translates in your brain as a win.

You're not fooling anyone
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The direction was down. I think that predictions that the price has undergone a bubble peak and will never recover that level are probably accurate, whether the current price is $6,000 or $600. After the peak had passed further investment in the cryptocurrency could have only one result - significant and irreparable loss. The price is now standing at about a third of the peak bubble level.
 
Craig B said:
The direction was down. I think that predictions that the price has undergone a bubble peak and will never recover that level are probably accurate, whether the current price is $6,000 or $600. After the peak had passed further investment in the cryptocurrency could have only one result - significant and irreparable loss. The price is now standing at about a third of the peak bubble level.
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That may be so, but his price predictions are still horribly wrong.

It's like me saying I can read your mind and tell you which card you picked. I say the queen of diamonds and you hold the 4 of hearts but then I claim I'm obviously psychic because I was right that your card was red.
 
Craig B said:
The direction was down. I think that predictions that the price has undergone a bubble peak and will never recover that level are probably accurate, whether the current price is $6,000 or $600. After the peak had passed further investment in the cryptocurrency could have only one result - significant and irreparable loss. The price is now standing at about a third of the peak bubble level.
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Yea but think about how much money must still be moving into Bitcoin just to keep the lights on and the AC's running at the mines.

That is what gets me, who is increasing their bitcoin holdings now and why? Why hasn't it crashed deeper?
 
The_Animus said:
That may be so, but his price predictions are still horribly wrong.

It's like me saying I can read your mind and tell you which card you picked. I say the queen of diamonds and you hold the 4 of hearts but then I claim I'm obviously psychic because I was right that your card was red.
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In December if I said, you're going to lose all your money if you buy more Bitcoin. But you only lost two thirds of your money over six months? Am I psychic? Or is the optimist who says it'll carry on going up and you stand to make millions. Is the optimist psychic?

Neither. But people who said "don't buy any more" were predicting along the right general lines, weren't they?
 
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Craig B said:
In December if I said, you're going to lose all your money if you buy more Bitcoin. But you only lost two thirds of your money over six months? Am I psychic? Or is the optimist who says it'll carry on going up and you stand to make millions. Is the optimist psychic?

Neither. But people who said "don't buy any more" were predicting along the right general lines, weren't they?
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Yes, neither is psychic. What is it exactly that you're arguing here? The price is going to go up or down and predicting either gives you a 50% chance to be right. Just like guessing a card is red or black. But occasionally guessing red or black correctly doesn't make psychic abilities real any more than Samson occasionally guessing direction of change makes his TA ability to predict the market real.

That's why the million dollar challenge required specific testing and his specific predictions have often been very wrong in this thread and others.

But you're welcome to use his TA or your own and become rich and famous
 
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