ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
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After MtGox I thought it would never get to $1,000 again. There certainly doesn't seem to be a hard limit on hype.
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After MtGox I thought it would never get to $1,000 again. There certainly doesn't seem to be a hard limit on hype.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
I am amazed at the hype. I watched analysts on CNBC pushing the product and saying now is the time to buy because it has dropped. It will make bank money obsolete he said. He did admit that 98% of the cryptos are scams but not Bitcoin, Ripple and Ethereum.
The more I speak with people the more I find some who have invested. They expect to sell at a massive profit. Last night I spoke to a person whose relative has invested in bitcoin. It seems he might have done so in the middle of 2017. He may have invested heavily because he is going on an expensive holiday and is looking to quit his job and buy a business. Even at this price he is urging others to invest. I told the person to advise him to get out and take his profits (or cut his losses) before it is too late.
It reminds me a family of three brothers (all married with children) in South Africa who were told that their grandfather in England had actually died very rich and his will had stipulated that the money only be distributed years later. They celebrated being rich, and for a year spent like they were millionaires - new houses, new furniture, new cars, new clothes, private schools, holidays, jewelry. Finally one suggested the family charter a jet and fly over to see what the delay was. It turned out the father had met a floozy and was trying to impress her and it got out of hand. It all ended in trauma and bankruptcy. Just the thought of being rich makes ordinary people very stupid.
I sat on the sidelines listening to this play out.
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PartSkeptic
Illuminator
It is a great concept to sell. It presses many emotional buttons. The key is the complexity which allows a lot of buzzwords and phrases. Don't delay and live with regret for the rest of your life. The best time to buy is now while it is falling/crashing - look at the previous crashes. It could reach a million dollars per coin. There is no limit.
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
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Disclaimer: I read a bunch of stuff, and do not vouch for accuracy.
As I understand, Ethereum can be used to buy ICO's (a subject about which I'd like to have a separate discussion) and Ripple was intended as a protocol for international transactions to (hopefully) replace SWIFT which has been in use for decades. Then they got caught up in the hype and shot halfway to the moon.
Edited to add: Ripple may have been intended as a legitimate banking product, but tulips are also real flowers that look nice. That doesn't mean it's not massively overvalued.
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Eddie Dane
Philosopher
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The most insidious button is the conspiracy button.
'Of course, your bank/ Warren Buffet/Mainstream media are telling you to stay out of Crypto. They are the system, and this is the great Libertarian revolution.'
It conditions people to ignore warnings.
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
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One of my best friends is a self-made millionaire.
When he was still poor, he was insanely frugal. We'd go to raves and he'd spend the whole night clutching the same glass of mineral water.
People have no real idea of the mentality that makes people rich and keeps them rich.
Many people also seem to think that having a million bucks would mean a yacht with a helicopter and bikini babes.
In reality, it buys you a reasonable house in a major western city that then costs 20K a year to keep up.
Hellbound
Merchant of Doom
Heh. Yeah. What put in in perspective for me was someone pointing out that the gas station/convenience store on the corner in your local neighborhood? That's probably pretty close to a million dollars in value (property and business).
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
That has been the case every time bitcoin suffered a severe price drop.
Although I am quick to point out the BS in this thread, I am nowhere near as bullish about bitcoin as it might appear. Yet every time, bitcoin surprises me.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
The negatives are starting to seep into the consciousness of the public. When stories of failure start emerging, as they will, there will be more unease. The pool of buyers will dry up and with falling demand the price must fall. The downward spiral will feed on itself.
No gift of prophecy needed. Just knowledge of history and people.
With the heavy investment in promoting the product, it will take some time it seems. This dead cat will use up it's nine lives in a series of bounces.
The current price action heralads another fall. This time below 8000. Will it be a better buy down there?
Or a less bad buy.
The latter in simple terms.
Eddie Dane
Philosopher
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It has definitely surprised me up to now.
These things are always surprising. Not even the smartest people who ever lived can predict them.
Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he 'could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.' Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003's] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words 'South Sea' in his presence.
blash
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Do you think bitcoin was invented yesterday?
People have been saying EXACTLY this ever since bitcoin was first traded. And every SINGLE time this rubbish theory has been uttered, the idiots who parroted the theory have been wrong.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Why don't you modify all your posts the way I modified this one. It will save you a lot of keystrokes and still be just as informative.
PartSkeptic
Illuminator
So now it is a waiting game. Place your bets and predictions folks. I reckon it will be less that $1,000 by the end of February, and less than $100 by the end of October.
Cock eyed optimist.So now it is a waiting game. Place your bets and predictions folks. I reckon it will be less that $1,000 by the end of February, and less than $100 by the end of October.
$500 by end of january and penny dreadful by june.
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
It's actually happening right now, yet you deny it???
No, Bitcoin wasn't invented yesterday. But until recently most people didn't realize just how bad its negatives were. Bitcoin mining is now using roughly the same amount of electricity as New Zealand a country of 4.7 million people, yet transactions are taking much longer to process. At this point Bitcoin is effectively worthless as a day-to-day currency, and it will only get worse.
"But it's a store of value!" the coiners cry. Value of what? The energy used to produce it is a sunk cost. It may be a revolutionary new technology but anyone can clone it. Most of the current 'value' in Bitcoin is just naked speculation with nothing to back it up - which is why many people are (rightly) equating it to a Ponzi or pyramid scheme.
Libertarians argue that Bitcoin is The Future because it isn't beholden to the 'manipulative' banking system and 'corrupt' governments with their 'oppressive' regulations and 'hyper-inflationary' fiat currencies. But these 'advantages' are now being seen as the disadvantages they always were. The lack of regulation and legal protections makes it more risky and expensive to own, not less. Its attractiveness to criminals, tax evaders and irrational speculators has forced governments to take draconian actions against it. And its builtin supply limit makes it highly deflationary, a killer of productivity and prosperity.
So what are Bitcoin's actual fundamentals? It has none. In fact the only reason Bitcoin has increased in 'value' is that investors think it will become more valuable. As soon as they change their minds the price will collapse - and it's already happening!
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Nothing is happening that hasn't happened hundreds of times already. And that includes all of the sooth-sayers predicting that the latest fall in price heralds the end of bitcoin.
You already made a fool of yourself once by saying that bitcoin was in a bubble when the price was $1000. Your ability to divine the future hasn't improved since.
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
The killer will be when miners give up because there isn't enough money in it to justify the electricity bill (already ~80% of total mining costs). When that happens you may not be able to buy or sell Bitcoin at any price, making it worthless as an investment. And with transaction fees much higher than conventional 'fiat' currencies, not worth using as money either.
But that doesn't mean it's totally worthless. As a textbook example of a bubble it will be very valuable to economists and students of history, and will probably make a few authors rich. It could also be a valuable lesson to investors - though I suspect many will not learn from it.
Depending on how much the remaining investors are able to delude themselves, Bitcoin may well struggle on for many years - bouncing up and down as their mood changes. A hard core of believers could keep it going forever, so long as they continue to believe!
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