Bitcoin - Part 2

[psionl0]

You seem to think that "demand" is the only source of "value"; that a thing has a "price" only because there are people willing to pay that price, but no more fundamental principle is involved.

Exactly! That's all there is and there ain't no more.

Sure, in some cases, you might find a rational theory to explain the price of something. For example, stock prices are generally some multiple of the dividend the stock pays and that multiple depends upon the public perception of the reliability of the dividend and what the returns of comparable investments might be.

If demand for something radically changes suddenly then a reason for the change in demand can often be isolated. However, you can seldom predict when demand for something will suddenly change nor the direction of the change.

 

[Craig B]

Exactly! That's all there is and there ain't no more.

Sure, in some cases, you might find a rational theory to explain the price of something. For example, stock prices are generally some multiple of the dividend the stock pays and that multiple depends upon the public perception of the reliability of the dividend and what the returns of comparable investments might be.

If demand for something radically changes suddenly then a reason for the change in demand can often be isolated. However, you can seldom predict when demand for something will suddenly change nor the direction of the change.

I agree with that, that it is not always possible. But the rest of your thesis is baloney. You are telling me there's no distinction in principle in the significance of a price of $19,600 for something that has been talked up from $10 by speculators, on one hand; and on the other, something that has been around $19,600 consistently, and it produces a revenue of $1200 per year.

You're saying, the sale price at the moment is $19,600 and that's all we need to know. There ain't nuffin else we need to find out about it. There ain't no more.

That pet rock of yours ... does it do due diligence for you when you decide where to invest your money?

 

[psionl0]

You are telling me there's no distinction in principle in the significance of a price of $19,600 for something that has been talked up from $10 by speculators, on one hand; and on the other, something that has been around $19,600 consistently, and it produces a revenue of $1200 per year.

That is the complete exact opposite of what you quoted.

 

[PartSkeptic]

(snip)

That pet rock of yours ... does it do due diligence for you when you decide where to invest your money?

Don't knock the rock. Some of them can be very good predictors.

There is a rock in a Game Park near here that does Weather Forecasting. It hangs on a tree and has a signboard with the predictions.

Condition . . . . . . . . Forecast
Stone is Wet . .. . . . Rain
Stone is Dry . . . . . . Not Raining
Shadow on Ground . Sunny
White on Top . . . . . Snowing
Can't see stone . . . .Foggy
Swinging stone . . . .Windy
Jumping Stone . . . .Earthquake
Stone Gone . . . . . .Tornado

Perhaps psion10 pet rock should appear on TV with some of the crypto enthusiasts, stuck on a spinning wheel pointing to "Buy" "Sell".

 

[gabeygoat]

Bitcoin itself seems like the Friendster of cryptos

 

[psionl0]

Bitcoin itself seems like the Friendster of cryptos

If that is a reference to the long gone Napster then I would suggest that bitcoin is more like the Gnutella of cryptos.

 

[Samson]

Bitcoin defies TA for the first time. It is heading north of the North Pole.
It will return...

 

[Craig B]

That is the complete exact opposite of what you quoted.

On the contrary, it's exactly the same as what I quoted:

... There ain't no more.

 

[bytewizard]

Over $11,000 today. Any buyers?

 

[PartSkeptic]

Over $11,000 today. Any buyers?

You should have a flood of anxious buyers mortgaging their houses and selling their cars. After all, the experts are still saying "it is going to the moon!"

 

[psionl0]

After all, the experts are still saying "it is going to the moon!"

I thought it was the scammers who were saying that. The "experts" keep saying that bitcoin is about to die.

(Both claims have the same smell that air coming from the nether regions has).

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Bitcoin Transaction Volume Is Puzzling Investors

Earlier this year, when Bitcoin’s price fell by more than 60% from its record close, a less-noticed Bitcoin figure also plunged: the number of daily transactions.

There are many explanations for the fall-off in trading, from software- to news-related. What’s less understood is why the level hasn’t recovered as Bitcoin’s price made a 50% comeback since Feb. 5. That’s left some investors wondering whether the cryptocurrency is waning in popularity...

Transactions plunged from a seven-day average of almost 400,000 in mid-December to about 200,000 this week, according to research firm Blockchain.info. The last time it was this low, the currency traded below $500.

A year ago, bitcoin’s market capitalization was about 85% of the total sector. It’s now around 40%, according to website Coinmarketcap.com.

“Merchants, payment processors and online gambling are moving off of Bitcoin,” Samani, who has $50 million allocated to the space, said in an email. “Our Bitcoin position as a fund is small — I believe Bitcoin is in the process of failing.”

 

[psionl0]

Bitcoin Transaction Volume Is Puzzling Investors

It's amazing what you can make an article say if you cherry pick paragraphs:

Not everyone agrees that lower volumes signal trouble for Bitcoin. It may be a healthy return to normality and signs that the market is maturing.

Should prices start rallying again, traders may well be coaxed back, according to David Drake, whose New York-based family office has more than $10 million in cryptocurrency and blockchain investments. He sees the currency soaring to $35,000 by the end of the year.

“We have a legacy of transactions being too slow and expensive, and it will take some time for people to forget,” Drake said by phone. “But they’ll come back.”

 

[Samson]

It's amazing what you can make an article say if you cherry pick paragraphs:

Drake sees an ocean of bigger fools.

 

[Craig B]

It's amazing what you can make an article say if you cherry pick paragraphs:

I see you haven't chosen to highlight this "He sees the currency soaring to $35,000 by the end of the year." That'll be nice for him, as we're told he's holding $10 million of that crypto.

ETA why would anyone buy at $35k? Because they expect somebody to come along afterwards and buy at $36k. That second person awaits a third with $37k, and so on.

 

[psionl0]

I see you haven't chosen to highlight this "He sees the currency soaring to $35,000 by the end of the year." That'll be nice for him, as we're told he's holding $10 million of that crypto.

That illustrates my point quite nicely.

ETA why would anyone buy a stamp at $35k? Because they expect somebody to come along afterwards and buy that stamp at $36k. That second person awaits a third with $37k, and so on.

ftfy.

 

[rayheno]

Do you guys never get bored of this back and forth stuff? Its been going on for months

 

[PartSkeptic]

Do you guys never get bored of this back and forth stuff? Its been going on for months

No. It is fascinating watching the graphs. And we are waiting for the time psion10 admits defeat (as bitcoin hits the floor).

 

[psionl0]

Do you guys never get bored of this back and forth stuff? Its been going on for months years

ftfy.

You would think so. However, every time you think that everything that could possibly have been said about bitcoin has been said, a new set of "bitcoin experts" starts the whole cycle again.

The most recent incarnation of bitcoin prophecies appears to have started around HERE.

ETA as for Craig B, this is one poster who has copied more posts from the original thread than any other.

 

[Samson]

A nice head and shoulders pattern with retest of the neckline is in place.
Last 11151, expect 500 dollars down minimum.