Bitcoin - Part 2

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Samson said:
A nice head and shoulders pattern with retest of the neckline is in place.
Last 11151, expect 500 dollars down minimum.
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By when? (Please stop making these open-ended predictions, eh?)

eta: It might be different in your world, but my only experience in such trades was in the field of sports 'spread betting'. This might be different from the US meaning of those words, but you could buy/sell a sporting performance relative to the spread quoted by the bookie. e.g. you could buy/sell the total points gained by (say) Liverpool during the football season, where the quote was (say) 72-74. Now, if your trade started going badly you'd be hit by a 'margin call' and have to stump up cash to set against anticipated long-term losses. What's more, the duration of the trade was fixed, in this case by the end of the football season, and you could close a position at any time to fix a profit/loss.

You keep making predictions that you could claim as a win, simply because you don't put a time-frame on your predictions, or indicate at what point you'd bail out with a loss when the market moved against you.

Right now I see BC at 11205 and trending up, about 50 above your 'sell' price. Do you bail out?
 
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psionl0 said:
That illustrates my point quite nicely.


ftfy.
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You fixed nothing
why would anyone buy a stamp at $35k? Because they expect somebody to come along afterwards and buy that stamp at $36k. That second person awaits a third with $37k, and so on.​
Is that how you perceive philately? Maybe you can give me some helpful advice.:D

My cousin just bought a Bitcoin. Says it's a rare twopence red one, with unusual cancellation mark. What do you think? Should he stick it in his crypto collectors' album along with the early Penny Black bitcoins?

(I've never seen a crypto album designed for collectors, by the way.)
 
Samson said:
A nice head and shoulders pattern with retest of the neckline is in place.
Last 11151, expect 500 dollars down minimum.
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Seems to be 11410 now. Are you bailing, to minimise your loss at ~260 ?

eta: 11472.
 
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GlennB said:
Seems to be 11410 now. Are you bailing, to minimise your loss at ~260 ?
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It goes like this.
When there is a sell signal, there is a zone created in which the opportunity on the short side is defined. In a rising market this is brief, and here it was 11250 to 11050. Yes, I would have bailed with a small profit.
This bitcoin market is delivering buy and sell signals frequently, at different time ranges. The last signal was a 15 minute buy at 11165, with little time to enter.
I will happily be another relic of bitcoin mania, I may expire without understanding any part of it.
 
Samson said:
It goes like this.
When there is a sell signal, there is a zone created in which the opportunity on the short side is defined. In a rising market this is brief, and here it was 11250 to 11050. Yes, I would have bailed with a small profit.
This bitcoin market is delivering buy and sell signals frequently, at different time ranges. The last signal was a 15 minute buy at 11165, with little time to enter.
I will happily be another relic of bitcoin mania, I may expire without understanding any part of it.
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You need to post these guidelines with your original recommendation, or not post at all. This is the first we've heard about the 11250 to 11050 business. All you actually mentioned was your expected $500 drop.

You come across as one devoted to self-aggrandisement. To avoid that misunderstanding, make it clear what your recommendations truly are, and their limits.
 
Samson said:
It goes like this.
When there is a sell signal, there is a zone created in which the opportunity on the short side is defined. In a rising market this is brief, and here it was 11250 to 11050. Yes, I would have bailed with a small profit.
This bitcoin market is delivering buy and sell signals frequently, at different time ranges. The last signal was a 15 minute buy at 11165, with little time to enter.
I will happily be another relic of bitcoin mania, I may expire without understanding any part of it.
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Pure nonsense. You guessed a 5% drop based on some "head and shoulders pattern" without any well defined time frame... not to mention anything remotely resembling a stop loss. Under these conditions, wins can be claimed after the fact in almost all possible outcomes, with a commodity as unstable as Bitcoin. I seriously doubt you've ever traded anything successively, long term.
 
GlennB said:
You need to post these guidelines with your original recommendation, or not post at all. This is the first we've heard about the 11250 to 11050 business. All you actually mentioned was your expected $500 drop.

You come across as one devoted to self-aggrandisement. To avoid that misunderstanding, make it clear what your recommendations truly are, and their limits.
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My record on this thread is fine. In most cases there has been a significant move in the forecast direction, greater than the opposing move.
Therein lies a winning strategy.
The comparator is coin tossing, where 500 throws will deliver an outcome within standard deviation linmits.
 
Here is a law site about Ponzi schemes. The number is quite staggering. They were doing the list once a month for a few years. There is too much paper money (fiat?) chasing promises of big returns. There are people who take your fiat money and use it to buy real things. Mansions, yachts, cars, bubbly, girls and so on. What I have trouble with is that many promised annual returns of 50% or 100% guaranteed.

https://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnew...014-ponzi-scheme-roundup.aspx?Redirected=true

Coincidentally the month I chose has a bitcoin warning:

Bitcoin remains in the news as a Ponzi scheme risk. The SEC issued a warning entitled “Ponzi Schemes Using Virtual Currencies” to warn the public that Bitcoin is vulnerable to Ponzi schemes.

The North America Securities Administrators Association issued a warning to investors last year about digital currencies, and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) also issued its own warning, stating: “Digital currency such as Bitcoin is not legal tender. No law requires companies or individuals to accept bitcoins as a form of payment. Instead, Bitcoin use is limited to businesses and individuals that are willing to accept bitcoins. If no one accepts bitcoins, bitcoins will become worthless.”
Bitcoin was also the subject of a new report that the spike in the price of bitcoin last year from $200 to $1,200 was the result of bots creating fake accounts in an effort to drive up the price. The report notes that the two bots, called Willy and Markus, created fake accounts and purchased bitcoins that were “suspiciously close” in value to the 650,000 bitcoins that Mt. Gox Ceo Mark Karpeles claimed had mysteriously vanished.
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Some schemes are called pump and dump. This involves A buying from B, B buying from C, and C buying from A to drive up the price before A, B and C dump their holdings and disappear into the sunset.
 
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Craig B said:
Is that how you perceive philately?
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No analogy is perfect but bitcoin still more closely relates to stamp collecting than some scam that is pushed onto an unsuspecting public with the pushers taking their spoils long before the late comers catch on.

It is true that there are many philatelists who buy stamps purely for the pleasure of owning a them and have no interest in the price nor in selling them (at least, not for money). However, most of the value of collectors' stamps come from speculators who see stamps as an appreciating asset (much to the chagrin of true philatelists).
 
ponderingturtle said:
Years, go back to the first bitcoin thread.
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I admit to being wrong once more. I said bitcoin has no value beyond what some greater fool is prepared to pay for it. But look at how much argument and debate it has generated and how much entertainment some of us have had.

However, it has cost me nothing but time. I get up and check the chart each day. Sometimes I get it right and sometimes I get it wrong - on a daily or weekly basis. But over time, the trend is down.

If you do not think so, maybe I can interest you in an investment? 30% return every three months. Bridging finance scheme. You must be prepared to wait 3 years before I can start paying back anyone. I need to check out my holiday place in the Caribbean, and open up my account there for you to put the money in. No crypto - just those fiat dollars you want to get rid of. ;)
 
PartSkeptic said:
I admit to being wrong once more. I said bitcoin has no value beyond what some greater fool is prepared to pay for it. But look at how much argument and debate it has generated and how much entertainment some of us have had.

However, it has cost me nothing but time. I get up and check the chart each day. Sometimes I get it right and sometimes I get it wrong - on a daily or weekly basis. But over time, the trend is down.
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I have been waiting for it to crash since it first broke $100. And asside from the odd losing 80% of its value overnight now and then it has never been rendered as worthless as I think it is.
 
psionl0 said:
Only if you consider that time began on December 17 2017.
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Yes. That was the point of peak interest. People are getting a bit wary now.

The latest bounce seemed to have peaked.

Slowly it turned...step by step...inch by inch... down it goes... :D

(apologies to Abbott and Costello)
 
ponderingturtle said:
I have been waiting for it to crash since it first broke $100. And asside from the odd losing 80% of its value overnight now and then it has never been rendered as worthless as I think it is.
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The previous peaks and drops were due to localized issues. The latest peak was truly global in scope. The only way above that is galactic in scope, but that is not possible in our lifetime.
 
Here's what's not going to happen, from an online bubble promotion sheet called "daily penny". The fall may be slow, but the mania described here will not recur.
It really can seem unfair. Last May marked the seventh anniversary of the first transaction using Bitcoin, where two pizzas were purchased for 10,000 bitcoins. Today, those 10,000 bitcoins are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Bitcoin has increased almost 900,000 times in the last seven years.​
If it did recur, say BTC was now worth $10000, and rises by a factor of a million, it would be up at ten billion dollars. Whether it is at nine thousand or ten thousand this month or next is insignificant, compared to these glorious tulip days, which ended in December.
 
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