Bitcoin - Part 2

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Here's a prediction based on nothing: BTC is currently at $7215 on coinbase. I predict that BTC will hit $7400+/- $100 by 6PM eastern time.
 
xjx388 said:
Right. That's why I didn't include those very broad predictions. It is worth noting that the price kissed 20k (within $300 or so). So technically, you are still right but 19700 is close enough for most people.
I focused on predictions that would work out in the shorter term and that someone could conceivably act on:Not sure what you mean here.

Well, it's easy to say that now, but at the time you said it, it sure seemed like a prediction like any other you have made.
And there are more.
I don't see where you called for a sell on the futures.

I have no dog in the fight, honestly. I am not knowledgable enough to debate TA. For me, there is only one form of proof that is important: Is there money being made consistently over time with TA? It's very easy to make broad predictions and have a few of them sorta come true. It's quite another thing to show a series of actual trades initiated solely on the guidance of TA that show a consistent profit over time.
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On the last question yes it is possible. As an example I ws asked by people to trade and since november 4 of 4 accounts are in profit showing an average 70% return on a very high leverage platform. I do better for others than for myself.
Price history is all I know, last week I said shares and property down US dollar up mainly due to the bond market, but normally I would not make such a prediction.

Bitcoin is easy on fundamentals, it has no fundamental value, so a rather special case to predict.
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Samson said:
On the last question yes it is possible. As an example I was asked by people to trade and since november 4 of 4 accounts are in profit showing an average 70% return on a very high leverage platform. I do better for others than for myself.
Price history is all I know, last week I said shares and property down US dollar up mainly due to the bond market, but normally I would not make such a prediction.
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OK. You have a 3 month pool of data where you show gains. The market itself showed nice gains during that time span as well. Did you take profit before the slide today and are your gains still the same? Will your method consistently outpace the market so that in 1/5/10 years you earn more than a simple S&P 500 index fund? If so, you should really apply as a hedge fund manager because your methodology would be highly sought after.
 
Belz... said:
I'm talking about your succession of excuses as to why you're going to dismiss this guy. I've made that pretty clear in my last couple of posts, so your confusion is puzzling.
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You are still not making any sense. Based on what he says, I have good reason to dismiss this idiot. Your reasons for worshiping him are far less clear.
 
xjx388 said:
OK. You have a 3 month pool of data where you show gains. The market itself showed nice gains during that time span as well. Did you take profit before the slide today and are your gains still the same? Will your method consistently outpace the market so that in 1/5/10 years you earn more than a simple S&P 500 index fund? If so, you should really apply as a hedge fund manager because your methodology would be highly sought after.
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This method is not concerned with beating anything but the free market.
Those accounts trade short side and long side of oil gold currency pairs of all hue, stock price indices in Australia Europe and USA.
I willm post screens of a representative account for your interest, and thank you for not :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
Amazingly (or I think it is amazing), there are now adverts for bitcoin on TV here in Japan.

Yet overnight the value has gone to 675000 yen. It’s dropping like a stone. I wonder if it will suddenly be propped up by a number of people wanting to buy while it is “cheap” and creating a mini peak before it heads downward again.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
But it's not crashing, honest! This just a 'market correction'. :rolleyes:
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Technically, it is a "correction". Corrections are reversions to true valuation. The true valuation of Bitcoin is zero. The correction is accelerating.

Many corrections dip below the mean before settling down. If Bitcoin does, it will imply that people will be paying others to take their bitcoin.
 
Here is a correction. The PE ratio is 34 to 1. Correction to the mean will imply that stocks have a long way to go, a 50% drop.

The PE ratio of bitcoin about 1,000,000 to one (I am being generous:)). It has a long way to go to it's mean of a tiny fraction above zero (zero it what is should be).

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/trump-stock-market-down-324880

On top of all this, stocks blew past traditional valuations as they raced ahead in 2017 and early 2018. A widely followed ratio designed by economists Robert Shiller and John Campbell that compares stock prices to corporate earnings hit 34 this year. The historic median for the ratio is 16.
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psionl0 said:
What is the PE ratio of the USD?
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Great question. :thumbsup:

The answer is that the dollar is a currency and not a share in a company.

One could argue that the dollar represents a share in the US economy and/or government. One of the desired characteristics of a currency is that it has a relatively stable value.

As a currency, Bitcoin has as much value and stability and backing as the extinct Zimbabwean dollar.

Bitcoin is not behaving as a currency but as a speculative investment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation

Speculation is the purchase of an asset (a commodity, goods, or real estate) with the hope that it will become more valuable at a future date. In finance, speculation is also the practice of engaging in risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from short term fluctuations in the market value of a tradable financial instrument—rather than attempting to profit from the underlying financial attributes embodied in the instrument such as capital gains, dividends, or interest.

Many speculators pay little attention to the fundamental value of a security and instead focus purely on price movements. Speculation can in principle involve any tradable good or financial instrument. Speculators are particularly common in the markets for stocks, bonds, commodity futures, currencies, fine art, collectibles, real estate, and derivatives.
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angrysoba said:
Amazingly (or I think it is amazing), there are now adverts for bitcoin on TV here in Japan.

Yet overnight the value has gone to 675000 yen. It’s dropping like a stone. I wonder if it will suddenly be propped up by a number of people wanting to buy while it is “cheap” and creating a mini peak before it heads downward again.
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You can see that from the start of the fall. And these 'traps' are deeper and deeper, yesterday they raised the value up to 10% .. only to drop again below where it started. The bottom hasn't been found yet and who knows where it lies. Imho the 'real' value is about start of 2017, when most ppl didn't 'invest' into BTC yet, they just mined it or used it to buy nuclear material. It will return there.
 
psionl0 said:
So something does not have to generate a return to be investment-worthy.

Your criticism of the lack of a return from bitcoin was just a case of special pleading.
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What drivel is this? Have you decided to invest all your money in dollar notes under your mattress? Well, it would be better than Bitcoin I admit.
 
psionl0 said:
You are still not making any sense. Based on what he says, I have good reason to dismiss this idiot.
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Indeed, and as I said, based on a single, alledged mistake he made once. Nobody who's not an idiot ever makes mistakes, right? You wouldn't have ever made a mistake, would you?

This pileup of excuses to avoid admitting to being wrong are hilarious, but at least I know it's because you don't want to think of yourself as an idiot, according to your own logic.

Your reasons for worshiping him are far less clear.
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Here it's my turn to ask you what you're talking about. Please present your evidence that I am worshipping him. This should be very amusing.

Hint: I don't even know who this guy is. I'm simply pointing out the ridiculousness of your excuses to dismiss him which vary from post to post.
 
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