Bitcoin - Part 2

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GlennB said:
For a friendly wager:

If you think Bitcoin will go below 1,000 this year, name the date when that first happens (never mind if it later climbs back above 1,000), or just state "It won't happen".

April 10th
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Linear approximation says March 10th, but it falls faster. Question is, will it stop ? Let's be bold. I say March 1st.
 
Eddie Dane said:
My bet:

it won't happen this year. It will find support somewhere around $3000.
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That's simply a bet. Let's however suppose you had a mathematical formula that showed conclusively that the price will have no support above $3,000 and will fall from its current value of $7,200 (ETA now $7,050) down to that lower level. Assume that anyone could access your formula. What would holders do with this knowledge? They would sell or go short, anticipating whatever timescale your formula showed, thereby invalidating it. If the formula indicated that an attempt to hold the line at $3,000 would be effective only temporarily, the attempt wouldn't be made at all, thus invalidating it once more.

That's why these things are unpredictable even in principle. All predictions, even mathematically correct ones, are self disconfirming as soon as they become known.
 
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psionl0 said:
He pronounced on a loud voice that blockchain will go away. That makes him is an idiot.
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Yes, because smart people are never wrong.

So now we're here: first you dismissed him because he was a nobody. When shown that he wasn't, you dismissed him because he was a "self-professed" expert. Now when I call you on it you switch to dismissing him because he (alledgedly) was wrong at some time in the past. That's pretty good. Now you need guilt by association and you'll be just about ready to claim your prize. It's just a matter of knowing whether you'll use some old boogeyman like the Nazis or commies, or if you'll go for something more au-goût-du-jour, like feminists or the alt-right.
 
Samson said:
That is a clear case of cherry picking. You took one prediction of about 5.
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Yeah, and it was wrong.

It's pretty amazing that you think we should ignore the wrong ones just because it embarasses you.

Just own it. You were wrong. Happens to everybody. No need to do mental gymnastics to avoid admitting it.
 
Belz... said:
Yes, because smart people are never wrong.

So now we're here: first you dismissed him because he was a nobody. When shown that he wasn't, you dismissed him because he was a "self-professed" expert. Now when I call you on it you switch to dismissing him because he (alledgedly) was wrong at some time in the past. That's pretty good. Now you need guilt by association and you'll be just about ready to claim your prize. It's just a matter of knowing whether you'll use some old boogeyman like the Nazis or commies, or if you'll go for something more au-goût-du-jour, like feminists or the alt-right.
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What the **** are you talking about?

I only said "Roubini who?" because this was a person who made a pronouncement without any justification whasoever. No matter what credentials a person may have, if they can't justify what they are saying then they are just plain STUPID.
 
The clamp-down grows.


http://fortune.com/2018/02/05/bitcoin-china-website-ico-block-ban-firewall/

China will reportedly block anyone in the country from accessing websites that offer cryptocurrency trading services or initial coin offerings (ICOs). Advertisements relating to Bitcoin and other virtual currencies have also been scrubbed from search engines and social media in the country.

The authorities in China have already banned ICOs and shut down domestic exchanges, but that didn’t solve the issue of people accessing foreign services within the country.

Now, according to local media, China will block access to domestic and foreign services “to prevent financial risk.” China has a long tradition of blocking unwanted foreign websites using the so-called Great Firewall of China.
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phiwum said:
Could be. We'll see when the time comes.

It would be nice to have a deadline. Whay do you propose?
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The "middleman" has always been a necessary scourge in business. They cost so much in terms of transactions but many transactions can not happen without them. Don't tell me that when we are on the verge of technology that could eliminate them that we will suddenly say the we prefer the middlemen.

No, I don't have a deadline.
 
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Samson said:
That is a clear case of cherry picking. You took one prediction of about 5.
Read the thread.
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OK:

1) 12/10/17
Futures trading begins in an hour on CBOe.
Expect $8000 this week.
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It went from $15736 at 6pm 12/10/17 to $19205 on 12/17/17. It did the exact opposite of your prediction.

2) 1/12/18
The algo just said buy bitcoin.
Last 13919

That is computer driven, no emotion.....
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on 1/12/18, the high was $13934, went up on 1/13 to $14316 hovered in that range for a few days and then dropped off to a low of $9833 on 1/17/18. It has yet to again reach that point where you said buy. Not very helpful and from an investment perspective, completely worthless unless you define the buy/sell points. You said "Buy" but never said "sell." And even if you did say sell at the ~$14k high, any profit-taking would have been minimal to non-existent. Hit, but extremely narrow and pretty meaningless in the big scheme of things.

3) 1/27/18
Sounds like we have come full circle.

From a technical perspective it looks like a decent rally coming here to around 15000.
Weird.
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The high on 1/27/18 was $11391. No rally to $15000 happened. You later said that the "rally" to $11500 to $12220 "satisfied the algo," but your prediction is your prediction -there was no "rally" at all. The price hovered around the $11k mark for 2 days. Miss.

4)Your last advise to do a futures contract to sell at $8902 and you would advise as to when to sell those futures. You have yet to advise as such but if you were to say "do it now," we could count this as a hit.

5)Your prediction of $500 by the end of January. Obvious miss.

So you have 5 predictions and only two of them can charitably be counted as hits. Your performance is no better than chance on this limited data set. If I've missed something, please advise.
 
hello, nobody ordering my wc bulbcoin? I probably forgot to mention that it will be honestly distributed here on skeptics only. that shpuld do the trick.
 
I do waste my time on many stupid things. but wasting it on somebody paying for somebody else's electricity bill seems a bit crazy
 
Craig B said:
That's simply a bet. Let's however suppose you had a mathematical formula that showed conclusively that the price will have no support above $3,000 and will fall from its current value of $7,200 (ETA now $7,050) down to that lower level. Assume that anyone could access your formula. What would holders do with this knowledge? They would sell or go short, anticipating whatever timescale your formula showed, thereby invalidating it. If the formula indicated that an attempt to hold the line at $3,000 would be effective only temporarily, the attempt wouldn't be made at all, thus invalidating it once more.

That's why these things are unpredictable even in principle. All predictions, even mathematically correct ones, are self disconfirming as soon as they become known.
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Worse. It's pop psychology.

I figure that somewhere below 5000 we start to hit the bottom, supported by the libertarian believers who hasn't in formums filled with HODL Memes.

Could be utter BS. As these are not the ones holding most Bitcoin. All these currencies start by giving their devs a couple of thousand coins. So all these coins I suspect are 80% in the hands of their makers. That not only makes them very rich, but I suspect gives them the ability to manipulate a lot.


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xjx388 said:
OK:

1) 12/10/17 It went from $15736 at 6pm 12/10/17 to $19205 on 12/17/17. It did the exact opposite of your prediction.

2) 1/12/18 on 1/12/18, the high was $13934, went up on 1/13 to $14316 hovered in that range for a few days and then dropped off to a low of $9833 on 1/17/18. It has yet to again reach that point where you said buy. Not very helpful and from an investment perspective, completely worthless unless you define the buy/sell points. You said "Buy" but never said "sell." And even if you did say sell at the ~$14k high, any profit-taking would have been minimal to non-existent. Hit, but extremely narrow and pretty meaningless in the big scheme of things.

3) 1/27/18The high on 1/27/18 was $11391. No rally to $15000 happened. You later said that the "rally" to $11500 to $12220 "satisfied the algo," but your prediction is your prediction -there was no "rally" at all. The price hovered around the $11k mark for 2 days. Miss.

4)Your last advise to do a futures contract to sell at $8902 and you would advise as to when to sell those futures. You have yet to advise as such but if you were to say "do it now," we could count this as a hit.

5)Your prediction of $500 by the end of January. Obvious miss.

So you have 5 predictions and only two of them can charitably be counted as hits. Your performance is no better than chance on this limited data set. If I've missed something, please advise.
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You missed some.
I predicted it would never hit 20k. I predicted it would never see 10k agin. So far unproven either way, neither price has yet been seen. Predicting 8k when the futures began is right exceot for the time. The 500 prediction by january would be taken seriously only by fools. And there are more.
The decent rally failure was called when it failed, and the current sell with futures would be showing a 50% return on maintenance margin.

Overall there is a far better than random walk story there, but no proof will be sufficient because as I found on the TA thread there is a yearning to not believe in TA. Even mod Fischer suggested I was using a tipping service when
predictions were accurate without explaining what methodology that service might be using. He was wrong of course.

When I get round to it I will do a full list, for my own research, so no need to say don't bother.
 
Samson said:
You missed some.
I predicted it would never hit 20k. I predicted it would never see 10k agin. So far unproven either way, neither price has yet been seen.
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Right. That's why I didn't include those very broad predictions. It is worth noting that the price kissed 20k (within $300 or so). So technically, you are still right but 19700 is close enough for most people.
I focused on predictions that would work out in the shorter term and that someone could conceivably act on:
Predicting 8k when the futures began is right except for the time.
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Not sure what you mean here.

The 500 prediction by january would be taken seriously only by fools.
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Well, it's easy to say that now, but at the time you said it, it sure seemed like a prediction like any other you have made.
And there are more.
The decent rally failure was called when it failed, and the current sell with futures would be showing a 50% return on maintenance margin.
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I don't see where you called for a sell on the futures.

Overall there is a far better than random walk story there, but no proof will be sufficient because as I found on the TA thread there is a yearning to not believe in TA. Even mod Fischer suggested I was using a tipping service when
predictions were accurate without explaining what methodology that service might be using. He was wrong of course.
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I have no dog in the fight, honestly. I am not knowledgable enough to debate TA. For me, there is only one form of proof that is important: Is there money being made consistently over time with TA? It's very easy to make broad predictions and have a few of them sorta come true. It's quite another thing to show a series of actual trades initiated solely on the guidance of TA that show a consistent profit over time.
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