Bitcoin - Part 2

[PartSkeptic]

So what? Most businesses fail in their first year operation. The extreme examples that you cherry picked failed because ultimately they were based on contracts that would become unfulfillable. In the case of the tulip mania the problem was offering massive amounts of money for tulips that hadn't been grown yet. In the case of the company stocks that you cherry picked, the company couldn't match the hype and so failed.

Bitcoin is neither a business nor a contract. It is like stamp collecting. You either buy it, sell it or do neither. Those invested in bitcoin are not going to ditch them any more than stamp collectors will burn their stamps.

The tulips could have been delivered. The people did not want an expensive tulip. They wanted someone to buy the tulip. First, at a higher price, then as it crashed, at any price. If one paid the equivalent of 10 years salary for a single tulip, and then suddenly found no-one would buy at any price, why bother taking delivery?

Stamps and art increase in value and have done so for decades, if not centuries. The increase is steady and reasonably reliable. One does not have to sell a rare stamp but put it on show for guests. Or just look at it in private in amazement with satisfaction at the value one got for the money paid.

When bitcoin drops to one cent per coin, and stays there, what does one do then? Tell one's grandchildren a story of being caught in the bitcoin bubble?

If one invests in a start-up company one assesses the risks and checks the business plan. Astute investing can be very rewarding on an ongoing basis. The underlying fundamentals are well understood, as are the risks.

The risk with bitcoin is that if it continues to fall people will not buy. If people do not buy the demand falls off. With falling demand come ever larger drops in price. Might as well buy two pizza and brag about the most expensive pizza one ever bought. Oh I forgot. With falling value and interest will come fewer businesses willing to transact.

 

[Craig B]

So what? Most businesses fail in their first year operation. The extreme examples that you cherry picked failed because ultimately they were based on contracts that would become unfulfillable. In the case of the tulip mania the problem was offering massive amounts of money for tulips that hadn't been grown yet. In the case of the company stocks that you cherry picked, the company couldn't match the hype and so failed.

Bitcoin is neither a business nor a contract. It is like stamp collecting. You either buy it, sell it or do neither. Those invested in bitcoin are not going to ditch them any more than stamp collectors will burn their stamps.

I picked these examples because I think Bitcoin is an extreme case. May I disagree with you that Bitcoin speculation resembles philately or art collecting. Here's why. The objects in that case have a physical form, so they may be admired for that, as well as be traded. Bitcoin is the first speculative subject that has no physical form at all. If you want something similar to stamp collection - go for tulips!

 

[Craig B]

The tulips could have been delivered. The people did not want an expensive tulip. They wanted someone to buy the tulip. First, at a higher price, then as it crashed, at any price. If one paid the equivalent of 10 years salary for a single tulip, and then suddenly found no-one would buy at any price, why bother taking delivery?

Physical delivery was practicable, if any speculator wanted it. The issue with the tulips that caused the crash was not that only undeliverable futures contracts were exchanged in the market.

In the Northern Hemisphere, tulips bloom in April and May for about one week. During the plant's dormant phase from (Northern Hemisphere) June to September, bulbs can be uprooted and moved about, so actual purchases (in the spot market) occurred during these months. During the rest of the year, florists, or tulip traders, signed contracts before a notary to buy tulips at the end of the season (effectively futures contracts).​

Tulip mania^WP

 

[PartSkeptic]

Even when they are open "jokes" (read as "useless for anything"), the masses are "investing".

Same principle. Find a buyer willing to pay a higher price.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy...ke-currency-soared-to-2-billion-this-weekend/

...Nobody was supposed to take Dogecoin seriously. Back in 2013, a couple of guys created a new cryptocurrency inspired by the "doge" meme, which features a Shiba Inu dog making excited but ungrammatical declarations.

...But cryptocurrency investors didn't get the memo. As the cryptocurrency market in general exploded in the summer and fall of 2017, Dogecoin went along for the ride. Its value started rising, and by the end of 2017, the value of all Dogecoins in circulation was almost $1 billion.

Then on Saturday the value hit $2 billion. Since then, it has lost some ground and the value of Dogecoins in circulation is now around $1.7 billion.

 

[applecorped]

More fun than lotto

 

[psionl0]

I picked these examples because I think Bitcoin is an extreme case.

Just as I said earlier. Find some extreme unrelated example and say "ergo bitcoin". It doesn't matter if it is a chalk and cheese comparison. It is only when bitcoin is compared to something that isn't bad that differences matter.

For example:

May I disagree with you that Bitcoin speculation resembles philately or art collecting. Here's why. The objects in that case have a physical form, so they may be admired for that, as well as be traded. Bitcoin is the first speculative subject that has no physical form at all.

That is a typical luddite reaction. If you can't hold it like a baby rattle then it doesn't exist. The only reason you don't want to compare bitcoin to stamps is because then you would have to describe everybody who buys stamps a "greater fool".

If you want something similar to stamp collection - go for tulips!

When did stamp collecting become a tulip mania craze?

 

[psionl0]

The risk with bitcoin is that if it continues to fall people will not buy. If people do not buy the demand falls off. With falling demand come ever larger drops in price. Might as well buy two pizza and brag about the most expensive pizza one ever bought. Oh I forgot. With falling value and interest will come fewer businesses willing to transact.

That is trivially true for all forms of investment.

That is exactly what happened after the MtGox hack in 2011. The price of bitcoin went into free fall month after month. The price ultimately fell from nearly $30 to $3 and everybody thought that this was the end of the bitcoin experiment.

Bitcoin has not gone through a sustained price fall like that since.

 

[Craig B]

When did stamp collecting become a tulip mania craze?

It didn't. That's why I think you were mistaken to write

Bitcoin is neither a business nor a contract. It is like stamp collecting. You either buy it, sell it or do neither. Those invested in bitcoin are not going to ditch them any more than stamp collectors will burn their stamps.

And I think that comparison is completely laughable. Bitcoin's not like stamp collecting. It's like the Tulipomania of 1636-37, the South Sea Bubble of 1720, the Railway Mania of 1845, the Stock Market Bubble of 1929, the dot com internet boom of 1999-2000 or the credit bubble of 2003-08. My desire to rubbish the comparison made me write this

I can't think of a case in which Joe Kennedy was advised by his shoe shine boy: buy Penny Blacks, and then Joe said, "when the shoe shine boy is giving advice on stamp collecting, it's time to get out."

Then the price of penny blacks crashed and brought the economy down with it. Not likely.

I then wrote

But it is the same thing, one on a socially and economically insignificant scale, the other not. Bitcoin, like 1840 penny stamps, has no intrinsic or use value giving it any particular price at all.

So intrinsic lack of value, not a mania, is what stamps and Bitcoin have in common. I then noted the reason why you promote Bitcoin

Also unlike old cancelled stamps, Bitcoin has been made the darling of the extreme libertarian right, who support it on ideological grounds. Nobody treats stamps like that, AFAIK.

Perhaps bitcoin is the first historical example of libertarians committing economic-ideological hara-kiri. And as I have pointed out also, these people don't have the same affection for Penny Blacks.

In short; the only person who thinks collecting Bitcoin is like philately is yourself.

 

[Craig B]

That is trivially true for all forms of investment.

That is exactly what happened after the MtGox hack in 2011. The price of bitcoin went into free fall month after month. The price ultimately fell from nearly $30 to $3 and everybody thought that this was the end of the bitcoin experiment.

Bitcoin has not gone through a sustained price fall like that since.

It's not clear if you are then stating "and therefore it won't go through a sustained fall like that ever again in future". Is that what you are trying to tell us?

 

[psionl0]

It didn't.

But you wrote, "If you want something similar to stamp collection - go for tulips!" If you didn't mean to imply that tulips was like collecting stamps then why would you write something like that?

Bitcoin's not like stamp collecting.

Yes it is. Stamp collecting is the closest analogy to trading in bitcoin that I can think of. It is true that bitcoin has potentially more use than being locked up in a humidity free environment but what bitcoin can be used for (other than a store of value) is a minor consideration ATM.

It's like the Tulipomania of 1636-37

No it isn't for the reasons I have already given.

the South Sea Bubble of 1720

No it isn't. From what I have seen of the south sea bubble, it was a complicated system of shares and contracts (which you will never understand) that fell into a heap because it couldn't deliver what was promised.

the Railway Mania of 1845

I haven't studied this one. Maybe you can give us a point by point comparison.

the Stock Market Bubble of 1929

Now you are getting close. Any time stock or commodity prices rise too fast you can expect and equally dramatic fall. Of course, the stock market collapse was mad worse by the monetary policies of the time.

Note that the stock market recovered nicely and 1929 is ancient history. This is something you claim won't happen with bitcoin.

the dot com internet boom of 1999-2000

No it isn't. It was just a case of dot com business failing early like most business do. Many dot com companies are booming today.

or the credit bubble of 2003-08.

Bitcoin is not a debt instrument so "credit bubbles" are totally irrelevant.

One of the supposed aims of crypto currencies is to avoid the need for money to be borrowed into existence. I point this out not because I support a digital gold standard but just to point out how way off course your ranting is.

It's not clear if you are then stating "and therefore it won't go through a sustained fall like that ever again in future". Is that what you are trying to tell us?

Why would I state something like that? Only you are psychic enough to make a certain prediction like that.

All I can say is that there is nothing that indicates that the past trends in the last 8 years won't continue for some time into the future. I suspect that it would take a major global event to put a permanent dent in bitcoin. Would you like to divine what that event will be?

 

[Samson]

Bitcoin is crashing. This follows the news cycle. Bitcoin will never trade 20k because there is no value. The Nigerians and Koreans are chasing a dream that corporate America will not validate.

 

[psionl0]

Bitcoin is crashing. This follows the news cycle. Bitcoin will never trade 20k because there is no value. The Nigerians and Koreans are chasing a dream that corporate America will not validate.

This is just part of the normal ups and downs of bitcoin prices.

Everybody who has ever said "bitcoin will never trade above $X again" has been wrong. I have no reason to believe that you have picked it this time.

 

[Craig B]

I haven't studied this one. Maybe you can give us a point by point comparison.

No problem. Railway mania^WP

... the modern stock market made it easy for companies to promote themselves and provide the means for the general public to invest. Shares could be purchased for a 10% deposit with the railway company holding the right to call in the remainder at any time. The railways were so heavily promoted as a foolproof venture that thousands of investors on modest incomes bought large numbers of shares whilst only being able to afford the deposit. Many families invested their entire savings in prospective railway companies – and many of those lost everything when the bubble collapsed and the companies called in the remainder of their due payments.​

A pretty typical spec bubble. So is bitcoin.

What will interest historians this time is the libertarian ideology whose influence suffuses this particular speculative episode.

 

[PartSkeptic]

Psion10:
I am reading an article that says Bitcoin, unlike other crytocurrencies, will survive the coming crytocurrency crashes because it "has a store of value". It says that when fiat money also crashes, bitcoin will be there holding your value and enabling you to trade.

Let me say that I do one hour of work for a company and they pay me electronically by an EFT into my bank account. That amount of "credit/money" would perhaps enable me to fill my car with one tank of gasoline. If I chose to wait a year and the price of gasoline in fiat money stays the same then I can still buy a tank of gasoline.

If I buy the equivalent value of one tank of gasoline in bitcoin how sure I am that I will be able to buy a tank of gasoline in a years time?

What "guarantees" do I have?

Will the gas station take my bitcoin credit? Will an exchange pay me the fiat cash to do so?

What guarantees the "store of value"? Who guarantees the "store of value"?

If people decide to move away from bitcoin, and the price drops, how long do I have to wait for the value to return to the "store of value" I put in?

 

[Eddie Dane]

Bitcoin is crashing. This follows the news cycle. Bitcoin will never trade 20k because there is no value. The Nigerians and Koreans are chasing a dream that corporate America will not validate.

Maybe, maybe not.

Bitcoin has a level of volatility I haven't seen since I dated that Sicilian chick who would throw cutlery at me during arguments.

 

[Craig B]

Maybe, maybe not.

Bitcoin has a level of volatility I haven't seen since I dated that Sicilian chick who would throw cutlery at me during arguments.

A bit of dialogue from the Godfather has found its way into this thread.

 

[Eddie Dane]

Psion10:
I am reading an article that says Bitcoin, unlike other crytocurrencies, will survive the coming crytocurrency crashes because it "has a store of value". It says that when fiat money also crashes, bitcoin will be there holding your value and enabling you to trade.

Let me say that I do one hour of work for a company and they pay me electronically by an EFT into my bank account. That amount of "credit/money" would perhaps enable me to fill my car with one tank of gasoline. If I chose to wait a year and the price of gasoline in fiat money stays the same then I can still buy a tank of gasoline.

If I buy the equivalent value of one tank of gasoline in bitcoin how sure I am that I will be able to buy a tank of gasoline in a years time?

What "guarantees" do I have?

Will the gas station take my bitcoin credit? Will an exchange pay me the fiat cash to do so?

What guarantees the "store of value"? Who guarantees the "store of value"?

If people decide to move away from bitcoin, and the price drops, how long do I have to wait for the value to return to the "store of value" I put in?

The digital gold argument is strange to me.

You can leave gold at the bottom of the ocean for a thousand years and it will still be gold. But your grandchildren will find your digital wallet and not know what a USB port is for.

You cannot get together with a bunch of programmers and create a new indestructible metal. Or write a whitepaper about how you intend to do that, cash in, and not even lift a finger.

Bitcoin might maintain it's position as the first and original Crypto, but you're essentially talking about brain position then. That's branding. Brands can lose relevancy, just ask the Commodore computer brand.

So, Bitcoin can be digital gold. But I and my buddies can also make a digital gold. That makes Bitcoin less of a store of value in my opinion.

 

[psionl0]

... the modern stock market made it easy for companies to promote themselves and provide the means for the general public to invest. Shares could be purchased for a 10% deposit with the railway company holding the right to call in the remainder at any time.

So the railway companies were promoting themselves, selling shares in themselves directly to the public for 10% deposit?

I don't see how bitcoin itself could do any of that. Of course an exchange could do something similar but from your quote, it doesn't seem that the railway companies were using an exchange.

 

[psionl0]

What "guarantees" do I have?

None.

There is no indication that the bitcoin price cycles won't continue as they have done for the last 8 years (for a few years anyway). However, technology and the finance market change so rapidly that there is no telling what the future holds. As always, "caveat emptor".

 

[Craig B]

So the railway companies were promoting themselves, selling shares in themselves directly to the public for 10% deposit?

I don't see how bitcoin itself could do any of that. Of course an exchange could do something similar but from your quote, it doesn't seem that the railway companies were using an exchange.

Brokers were doing something exactly similar in the 1929 boom.

... a great deal of speculative trading was based on credit, what was known as "margin buying". An investor during the 1920s could purchase stock for cash or use his available cash as a ten percent downpayment or margin on a more sizeable purchase with ninety percent financed on loans from stockbrokers. This allowed investors to purchase ten times as much stock as they had money to pay for.​