psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
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It's now at 14200, and still fluctuating vigorously, so it's far from proven that the recovery to 16000 was lasting. What does your algorithm have to say about that?
I admit the recovery was impressive in its way. Who is buying now? Is it libertarians maxing out their credit cards to destroy the hated fiat scam counterfeit dollar imposed on freeborn Americans by the Rothschild-dominated conspirators of the Federal Reserve? If that is what's happening then this is more serious than the 1636 Tulip mania.
I see your friend psion is having a snooze. Very wise.
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There was a significant DCB immediately after the big day of the 1929 NYSE crash, which was on Tuesday October 29. Says Galbraith.
The next day those forces were at work which on occasion bring salvation precisely when salvation seems impossible. Stocks rose wonderfully, miraculously, though still on enormous volume. The Times industrials were up 31 points for the day, thus recouping a large part of the terrible losses of the day before. Why this recovery occurred no one will ever know. Organized support can have no credit. Organized reassurance has a somewhat better claim.
But on the following Monday "the market started on another ghastly slump".
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Well, untold trillions have been looted by the issuance of fiat currencies throughout history. The Federal Reserve Note relies on the petrodollar scam, which itself relies on the US Military to do violence against anyone who would dare sell oil in a non-dollar currency, as well as domestic legal tender laws and the full force of government.
On the other hand with a float of roughly 17 million bitcoin at a price of roughly $15,000, the bitcoin market cap is roughly "only" $255 billion. On top of that, it's a decentralized and completely voluntary system. No one is holding a gun to the head of anyone deciding to buy bitcoin for whatever reason. I'll leave it to you to decide which is "bad" or "good". I doubt you will be able to figure it out, though.
I fully admit that I can't figure out your theories which to me resemble more the ravings of an obsessive than the result of profound meditation. Your idea, repeated in this post, but already stated here
is startling. Here in the UK people point guns at other people not in order to force them to accept Sterling, but to force them to relinquish as much of it as they happen to be carrying at the time.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Why don't you post something that wasn't already posted a million times in 2011? The numbers may change but the ridiculousness never does.
RJ made the same post on 5 September 2017. (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11984488&postcount=860)
He frequently pops in to say that "this time it really is the bubble (truly ruly)" - just like you do.
What is it you are claiming is ridiculous and jackass? That the recent Bitcoin behaviour is a speculative bubble? You are saying that is not merely incorrect, but ridiculous. You're saying that the best strategy is to buy at any market price and hold indefinitely?
It is a speculative bubble. There is no input of value into the Bitcoin system. The price increases are the result not of valuation of income created by an asset, but of speculation based on the hope that past price increases will,continue in future.
The ragged pattern of bubble instability, always utterly unpredictable in detail, is being followed with impressive failthfulness by Bitcoin.
As I have stated, this may not be the final slump, but that will indeed come. What are you saying this is if not a bubble? Is it investment in an asset? Then where is the underlying wealth creation? If I buy a house to let, it is the rent paid by the tenant. If I own a farm it is the sale of its produce. If I put money in the bank, that bank lends it to people with projects that will generate future income.
But where is the Bitcoin income? Is it providing a valued service? As a currency it is ineffective as it is not readily or cheaply transferable, and as a store of value hopelessly unpredictable.
So what are you saying it is? A bubble, but an eternal infinite one? The "God Bubble"? That is not possible.
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PartSkeptic
Illuminator
The idea of a purely digital currency that cannot be hacked, cannot be controlled, and is purely a medium of exchange is the pie-in-the-sky sold to people who buy it purely to speculate that the value will rise over time and that they will become rich buying it, holding it for a while and then selling at a massive profit.
Bitcoin does not have the features of an ideal digital currency.
It consumes vast resources of computing power and electricity for a start.
It is slow and difficult to confirm that you actually have a bitcoin rather than a piece of paper someone tells you is a bitcoin.
Governments can make it illegal and stop people buying and trading.
The amount of advertising is huge (Yuuuuge) and it means that people are skimming vast profits off the trading of bitcoin.
How many people are using it as a currency? Everyone I know who bought it did so as an investment. Many others would not touch it.
Someone makes the rules. Branching or forking for example. Or updating the code. Think it is done by consensus - think again. Anarchy produces chaos.
I am in total agreement with CraigB. Not an asset and not a currency either. And the first dead cat bounce - maybe one more and then poof.
Bitcoin does not have the features of an ideal digital currency.
It consumes vast resources of computing power and electricity for a start.
It is slow and difficult to confirm that you actually have a bitcoin rather than a piece of paper someone tells you is a bitcoin.
Governments can make it illegal and stop people buying and trading.
The amount of advertising is huge (Yuuuuge) and it means that people are skimming vast profits off the trading of bitcoin.
How many people are using it as a currency? Everyone I know who bought it did so as an investment. Many others would not touch it.
Someone makes the rules. Branching or forking for example. Or updating the code. Think it is done by consensus - think again. Anarchy produces chaos.
I am in total agreement with CraigB. Not an asset and not a currency either. And the first dead cat bounce - maybe one more and then poof.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
I'm sure that you know I was referring to the differences between 2011 and 2017. What the posters were saying in 2011 proved to be wrong but you repeat them (ad-nauseum) in 2017 and suddenly it becomes correct?
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
ftfy.
Who said it should?
Naturally, scammers are on the wings ready to fleece would be investors in this medium who fail to exercise due diligence. They also flog "get rich quick" schemes over currency trading, day trading in stocks, marijuana, rich Nigerian relatives etc etc etc.
So what? The point here is that Bitcoin is not a means af avoiding currency crimes perpetrated by the guvmint against honest freeborn Americans. Bitcoin is a theatre of criminality like the Nigerian 419 scams or the drugs trade as you correctly suggest. All speculative bubbles have that element. But libertarians exculpate these scammers: It's their victims who "fail to exercise due diligence" who are at fault.
Meanwhile the people who are blamed are the perpetual thieves and swindlers of ... the Bank of England ... the Federal Reserve Board ... the world is turned upside down.
You won't confront this, will you? It will go up forever? It's the God Bubble. Nobody has to go to the trouble of creating real wealth or value again, if that's correct. We can all simply wait for Bitcoin to rise in price forever ... can you not see the fallacy in that reasoning?
It's a delusion. Like perpetual motion, or "free energy": one of these things touted by swindlers.
But I observe that this has become an ideological issue. So there's nothing to be done except to await the inevitable crash and hope the resulting damage is not too severe, or can be cleaned up effectively.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
I don't have a crystal ball and neither do you.
What I can say with a high degree of probability is that at some point in the not too far distant future, bitcoin prices will be such that whenever you remember the posts you are making now you will blush with embarrassment.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
It is not just the dishonest schemes that are the purvey of scammers. A lot of scammers suggest that you can game legitimate investments (you may have seen a poster here recently who believes that "technical analysis" is a guaranteed winner).
Marijuana gets a lot of attention from scammers because its pending legalization in many jurisdictions creates the potential for large profits for those who get into the business early (and even bigger profits if you trust the scammer).
Why? Because they will always go up and up? For if they ever stop and crash then you are the one who will be blushing, and you expect never to be doing that.
So what on earth do you mean? Are tulips now worth trillions of guilders, after rising in price for four centuries? No, they crashed and you can buy them today at modest cost in garden supply shops. Tulips are still there. The bubble burst. If Bitcoin has an intrinsic use value that too will be accessed at rates modestly additional to the face value of the transactions it facilitates, or the stores of wealth it is used to represent, just like any other normal financial instrument. If it turns out to have no use value its final price will be zero.
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psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
If you are referring to these words of yours, I still have a problem, which I will explain again.
What I can say with a high degree of probability is that at some point in the not too far distant future, bitcoin prices will be such that whenever you remember the posts you are making now you will blush with embarrassment.
What does this mean? It means that you will be embarrassed if the price ever falls significantly. It will be you who will blush in that case. Therefore you must either be saying that you will blush as much as you say I will, or alternatively you're saying that the price will not crash at all ever. Which of these alternatives do you have in mind?My algorithm I use to make suggestions, and bitcoin trades accordingly. I saw a great buy indication a few days ago, which I would not mention on this thread.
However gold is something you can drop on your foot and it hurts, and is a great buy while the cryptos collapse.
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12015445&postcount=910
I am very sure gold rallies this year, and cryptos go south.
Wait, are you saying Bitcoin is a currency now?
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Your feeble attempt to turn this around on me won't work. I am not the one making a specific prediction. You are. The onus is on you to prove your claims. So far you haven't been able to come up with a single argument that wasn't thoroughly discredited way back in 2011 and every year since.
The reason I say "high degree of probability" is because I dispassionately look at the history of bitcoin and see that it has defied every negative prediction ever made. There no reason to believe that history is going to change for a few years yet (at least). OTOH, there is every reason to believe that you will join the (very long) list of jabbering monkeys who's names are no longer even remembered.
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