Bitcoin - Part 2

[ponderingturtle]

Like many bubble things in the past. I have said Bitcoin may survive. I don't know its ultimate future, to be sure. But it has become the excuse for a bubble, and I know the bubble's ultimate future. Pop.

Let's test that. Can we agree that unless some real value has entered the Bitcoin trading system, the price rise is a bubble? The only possible source of new value input would be a realisation among the investing public that Bitcoin provides a useful medium of exchange or saving, as a currency or similar device. Good and well, perhaps the increase in price reflects that? Well let's see. The bottom of the last crash in 2011 was $2..

Please there has been tons of crashes since then. Like the Mt Gox one that cause bitcoin to lose 80% of its value in 4 hours over night, that is far worse than the supposed crashes in property values that only maybe lost 50% of their value.

When will the regular crashes have a long term effect, who knows.

 

[Tippit]

Let us have this evidence, which will prove you right and me wrong, if your evidence is valid. Otherwise you'll seem like a CT "nut" which you say you're not.

I don't care whether you or anyone else thinks I'm a nut. You can read Eustace Mullins and/or google the subject if you're interested.

 

[Craig B]

I don't care whether you or anyone else thinks I'm a nut. You can read Eustace Mullins and/or google the subject if you're interested.

I don't think you're a nut in fact.

I think you're a very traditional kind of antisemite, circulating allegations about Jewish conspiracies that have no foundation in reality, and quailing before the prospect of having to justify them. Just like your inspiration Eustace Mullins:

Eustace Clarence Mullins Jr. (March 9, 1923 – February 2, 2010) was an antisemitic American writer, propagandist, Holocaust denier, and disciple of the poet Ezra Pound. His best-known book is The Secrets of The Federal Reserve, in which he alleged that a group of shadowy organizations had conspired to write the Federal Reserve Act for its own nefarious purposes, and then induced Congress to enact it into law. David Randall called Mullins "one of the world's leading conspiracy theorists." The Southern Poverty Law Center described him as "a one-man organization of hate".​

 

[Tippit]

I don't think your a nut in fact.

I think you're a very traditional kind of antisemite, circulating allegations about Jewish conspiracies that have no foundation in reality, and quailing before the prospect of having to justify them. Just like your inspiration Eustace Mullins:

Eustace Clarence Mullins Jr. (March 9, 1923 – February 2, 2010) was an antisemitic American writer, propagandist, Holocaust denier, and disciple of the poet Ezra Pound. His best-known book is The Secrets of The Federal Reserve, in which he alleged that a group of shadowy organizations had conspired to write the Federal Reserve Act for its own nefarious purposes, and then induced Congress to enact it into law. David Randall called Mullins "one of the world's leading conspiracy theorists." The Southern Poverty Law Center described him as "a one-man organization of hate".​

The conspiracy doesn't have anything to do with whether or not the Rothschilds are jewish. Anti-semitism is the cloak behind which they can hide, without fear of criticism. As I said before, you have a confirmation bias. You're not interested in any evidence, because you're already prepared to dismiss it for one reason or another. But this is a derail from the bitcoin thread.

 

[Craig B]

The conspiracy doesn't have anything to do with whether or not the Rothschilds are jewish. Anti-semitism is the cloak behind which they can hide, without fear of criticism. As I said before, you have a confirmation bias. You're not interested in any evidence, because you're already prepared to dismiss it for one reason or another. But this is a derail from the bitcoin thread.

I don't think it is a derail. I think you believe that Bitcoin has a real value because it enables liberty loving people to escape from the Jewish government money conspiracy which has created worthless scam FR notes. Therefore Bitcoin has an intrinsic merit and value. I deny that and have argued against it.

To say that it doesn't matter if the Rothschilds are Jewish because antisemitism is the cloak behind which they can hide, makes no sense whatsoever. If they're hiding behind antisemitism it does matter if they are Jewish, as must be obvious to everyone.

Recall also my prediction. If and when the Bitcoin bubble pops, you will tell us that this is the doing of the Rothschilds, destroying a rival to their scam paper money, by short selling the hard-earned possessions of innocent investors.

 

[Tippit]

I don't think it is a derail. I think you believe that Bitcoin has a real value because it enables liberty loving people to escape from the Jewish government money conspiracy which has created worthless scam FR notes. Therefore Bitcoin has an intrinsic merit and value. I deny that and have argued against it.

I'm not an anti-semite, I don't think Federal Reserve notes are worthless, nor do i think that bitcoin has intrinsic value. So you managed to get all of that absolutely wrong. Congratulations?

To say that it doesn't matter if the Rothschilds are Jewish because antisemitism is the cloak behind which they can hide, makes no sense whatsoever. If they're hiding behind antisemitism it does matter if they are Jewish, as must be obvious to everyone.

You're wrong again. You don't have to actually be jewish to use anti-semitism as a defense. In fact, many claim the Rothschilds are Turkish/Khazars, and are jewish imposters. I personally don't care what ethnicity or religion they are, because I care about the actual money scam, whether they're running it, or some other dynastic banking family.

Recall also my prediction. If and when the Bitcoin bubble pops, you will tell us that this is the doing of the Rothschilds, destroying a rival to their scam paper money, by short selling the hard-earned possessions of innocent investors.

That specific prediction is as worthless as your other predictions, and your baseless and ignorant opinions on bitcoin.

 

[Craig B]

I'm not an anti-semite ...

You don't have to actually be jewish to use anti-semitism as a defense. In fact, many claim the Rothschilds are Turkish/Khazars, and are jewish imposters. I personally don't care what ethnicity or religion they are, because I care about the actual money scam, whether they're running it, or some other dynastic banking family.

who claims the Rothschilds are Khazars? Ah but you won't tell me will you? The Khazar stuff is another well known traditional antisemitic theme, as you must be well aware.

According to the Khazar theory of the new anti-Semites, most Jews today, particularly Ashkenazi Jews, are not racially Jews at all but descendents from the Turkic tribe of Khazars, whose ruling class and parts of its rank and file population converted to Judaism in the 8th or early 9th century CE. Hence, argue the racialists, Ashkenazi Jews have no rights to live in the racially Semitic Middle East and especially not in the Land of Israel.​

 

[Fudbucker]

I don't care whether you or anyone else thinks I'm a nut. You can read Eustace Mullins and/or google the subject if you're interested.

Eustace Mullins? Seriously?

 

[psionl0]

Explain how the bitcoins could be stolen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox

And a website indicates that there are less than 500,000 actual bitcoins. This is correct because the reward is at 12.5 bitcoins per block. Psion10 - How does one explain 850,000?

If a "website" says that then it must be true - NOT.

As at 19 Dec 2017 08:00 there were 16,752,363 bitcoins. (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins)

The reward per block is a well known formula that halves every 4 years and a new block is generated every 10 minutes. Under this formula, a maximum of 21,000,000 bitcoins will ever exist.

At the time of the MtGox heist, the reward per block was 50 btc. By the end of 2012 there was 10,500,000 btc in existence. So, in late 2011 there would have been around 7,500,000 btc in existence.

 

[PartSkeptic]

If a "website" says that then it must be true - NOT.

As at 19 Dec 2017 08:00 there were 16,752,363 bitcoins. (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins)

The reward per block is a well known formula that halves every 4 years and a new block is generated every 10 minutes. Under this formula, a maximum of 21,000,000 bitcoins will ever exist.

At the time of the MtGox heist, the reward per block was 50 btc. By the end of 2012 there was 10,500,000 btc in existence. So, in late 2011 there would have been around 7,500,000 btc in existence.

I mixed up blocks and bitcoins. There are 52,560 blocks generated each year. After 210,000 blocks the reward halves. There is no limit to the number of blocks that can be generated, only to the reward of bitcoin creation.

 

[PartSkeptic]

I don't care whether you or anyone else thinks I'm a nut. You can read Eustace Mullins and/or google the subject if you're interested.

Eustace Mullins appears to me to be a conspiracy theorist and an antisemite. His holocaust denial is very fanciful and contrary to the documented facts.

That said, Jewish influence is substantial and so is their financial clout. I doubt they operate as a cabal or have central planning but they do network intensively among themselves for the financial advancement of Jewish interests. There is no denying that as a group they are extremely intelligent and have benefited many nations in many ways.

There is a book on the internet that can be downloaded called "When Victims Rule". The tone is very antisemitic, but the facts seem quite solid when I checked some of them. At 2,000 pages with extensive Jewish sources, it is almost impossible to read. It details the extent of Jewish influence, and some of the problems during their history.

It is hard to find facts about the Rothschilds on the internet. They started out as five Jewish brothers and at first hired only Jewish employees. As time went on they married various figures of European royalty. Very secretive for such an influential organization which is a concern.

The main culprit Mark Karpeles in the Mt Gox scandal was a Jewish Frenchman and has managed to stay out of prison. Does that matter? Depends on one's point of view and biases.

 

[psionl0]

Can we agree that unless some real value has entered the Bitcoin trading system, the price rise is a bubble?

What is "real value"? I am not aware that some thing needs to have an industrial or domestic use (like gold) in order to be desirable. The only "useful" thing about bitcoin is that there is no equal when it comes to rapidly transferring large sums of wealth around the globe without interference.

Bitcoin is so novel that nobody can predict what will happen. I was once foolish enough to predict that the price of bitcoin would double from $1,000 to $2,000 within 6 months. Needless to say, I ended up with egg on my face. I would never have anticipated the current spike.

Maybe, if enough big name investors get involved (like central banks), bitcoin will become subject to price manipulations similar to what you get with gold and silver.

 

[Craig B]

What is "real value"? I am not aware that some thing needs to have an industrial or domestic use (like gold) in order to be desirable. The only "useful" thing about bitcoin is that there is no equal when it comes to rapidly transferring large sums of wealth around the globe without interference.

I don't mean anything mysterious. Has the price gone up because of speculation, or has it risen because people are willing to pay $18,000 to have a unit of value they can rapidly transfer sound the globe without interference?

For example, if I buy a postal order of £10 to £99.99 I will be charged 12.5% of the face value, but I am ready to accept that because of the convenience of being able to send money safely by post, so I pay for that service. Is that what is happening on a more impressive scale with Bitcoin? People paying to obtain the transfer advantages you describe? That would be added value, payment for real value.

But if the price of Bitcoin is going up mainly or solely because it went up in the past, is going up now and soeculators want to profit from it going up in future then it is a bubble. Like a pyramid selling scam or a Ponzi scheme, and like these it is in danger of disappearing in a puff of smoke.

 

[psionl0]

Has the price gone up because of speculation, or has it risen because people are willing to pay $18,000 to have a unit of value they can rapidly transfer sound the globe without interference?

Sheer speculation appears to be the prime driver ATM. A burst bubble is probably on the cards.

None of that has any bearing on the future of bitcoin and even trying to predict prices in the short term is pure magic 8 ball shaking.

 

[Craig B]

Sheer speculation appears to be the prime driver ATM. A burst bubble is probably on the cards.

None of that has any bearing on the future of bitcoin and even trying to predict prices in the short term is pure magic 8 ball shaking.

Yes well I have said that when bubbles are going to pop is unpredictable even in principle, and I have pointed out that tulips, intercontinental trade by joint stock companies, railways and the internet all survived the early bubbles they generated. So I'm not about to argue with your post.

However I still do disagree with your previous post which had a quite different tone.

So when push comes to shove all you are saying is that one day, bitcoin will suffer a price drop from which it never recovers but you don't know when and you don't know how.

Like all open ended predictions, that is unfalsifiable and hardly worth all the pages of arguing and irrelevant comparisons and useless quotes that you you have come up with.

i don't think the prediction of the bursting of a speculative bubble is unfalsifiable, irrelevant, useless or anything of the sort. I think it's timely and appropriate, as a warning to the unwary investor.

 

[psionl0]

I have pointed out that tulips, intercontinental trade by joint stock companies, railways and the internet all survived the early bubbles they generated.

Bitcoin is not "tulips, intercontinental trade by joint stock companies, railways and the internet".

 

[PartSkeptic]

Psion10:

Mt Gox. Explain how the bitcoins could be stolen.

BTW - Bouncy, bouncy - Crrrrraa....

 

[Craig B]

Bitcoin is not "tulips, intercontinental trade by joint stock companies, railways and the internet".

Likewise a joint stock company is not a tulip, and the internet is not a railway. What these things have in common is not intrinsic similarity, but that they have been subjects of speculative bubbles and that the things themselves continued to exist after the bubble had vanished. I think blockchain may do the same, though I don't know for sure. Perfectly possible and not unprecedented if it does.

 

[Samson]

I predicted Bitcoin would not reach 20k. It sure went close, but we are in the process of a price crash right now, from a technical perspective. This lines up nicely with the fundamental zero value of the entity.

 

[psionl0]

Psion10:

Mt Gox. Explain how the bitcoins could be stolen.

BTW - Bouncy, bouncy - Crrrrraa....

I'm sure that there is plenty of info out there if you want the nitty gritty details (if memory serves me, it had something to do with faulty encryption).

Suffice to say that if you transfer bitcoins from your personal wallet to the exchange's wallet then the security of your bitcoins is, at most, that of the bitcoin exchange's.