Bitcoin - Part 2

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That depends on whether being a store of value (or in this case, a parabolic gain in wealth) is more or less important to you than a medium of exchange. My friend who is worth hundreds of millions now is happy with it whatever you call it.
Not my point. He's happy because he's on the winning side of a speculative boom, not because the object of his speculation is an effective form of currency. It is a well recognised feature of bubbles that speculators have no interest in any aspect of the object they're speculating in, except its increase in price. They have no interest in anything else. But I was referring to bitcoin's efficiency as a currency. It has serious defects, one of which I pointed to.

Tulips are very pretty. Did the speculators of 1636-37 care about that? No. Tulips aren't an effective currency, are they? Did the speculators worry about that? Not at all.
 
What possible relevance could tulips have to bitcoin? It is the most contrived analogy - ever.
I explained that. "It is a well recognised feature of bubbles that speculators have no interest in any aspect of the object they're speculating in, except its increase in price. They have no interest in anything else." Tulips, shares in railway companies, it doesn't matter. So bitcoin's effectiveness as a currency doesn't matter to them. If Bitcoin is a bubble, as it appears to be, its price will finally crash just like the price of Tulips in 1637. I hope Tippet's friend sells out in time.

Here is an interesting article on that aspect of Bitcoin, from The American Conservative, of all places.
 
No you didn't. You simply said that tulips crashed within a year so bitcoin will crash within 10 years or 20 years or 30 years ...
These are both bubbles, and they have the common features of bubbles. I would be very surprised if bitcoin's crash was delayed for decades, but the future timetable of bubbles is always unpredictable.
You might as well have said that pink unicorns don't exist therefore bitcoin doesn't exist.
Why? I believe in the existence of Bitcoin, just as I believe in tulips or railways.
 
I explained that. "It is a well recognised feature of bubbles that speculators have no interest in any aspect of the object they're speculating in, except its increase in price. They have no interest in anything else." Tulips, shares in railway companies, it doesn't matter. So bitcoin's effectiveness as a currency doesn't matter to them. If Bitcoin is a bubble, as it appears to be, its price will finally crash just like the price of Tulips in 1637. I hope Tippet's friend sells out in time.

Here is an interesting article on that aspect of Bitcoin, from The American Conservative, of all places.


Extract from your link that sums it up.

Fraud, after all, is deliberate deception to secure unfair or unlawful gain. By calling tokens a nouveau currency, the proponents of bitcoin have managed to turn a pretty common form of financial swindle into a trendy method of speculative endeavor that people talk about at holiday cocktail parties. At just about any social situation, you will hear people talking confidently about bitcoin or blockchain or both.
 
These are both bubbles, and they have the common features of bubbles.
Nah. Your quote about speculators doesn't just apply to failed investments. You simply picked the most spectacular failure that you could think of then said "ergo, bitcoin".

Extract from your link that sums it up.
I don't know what is meant by a "nouveau currency" but bitcoin falls somewhere in between a pure commodity and a liquid currency. There is absolutely not deception involved whatsoever.
 
These are both bubbles, and they have the common features of bubbles. I would be very surprised if bitcoin's crash was delayed for decades, but the future timetable of bubbles is always unpredictable. Why? I believe in the existence of Bitcoin, just as I believe in tulips or railways.

In order to predict a crash, you must know what bitcoin is worth. What is bitcoin worth?

Bitcoin allows people to move value outside of totalitarian/confiscatory government borders. I am certain that is the big reason why it is so popular. It has zero intrinsic value, but neither does your favorite scam the US dollar. It's value is that which is ascribed to it by people who are willing to pay for its utility. Do you see any reason why people will stop valuing bitcoin and the adoption rate will plummet? If not, you probably have no business speculating on crashes. That, plus the fact that since you're not willing to short it, means you're not willing to put your money where your mouth is.
 
Ever traded real gold?

I bought some Kruger Rands in South Africa. I traveled to New Zealand with them. No duty and no limit (being a Kiwi citizen). Not considered currency or jewelry. Yes, they see them on the Xray machines. When I got there, I went to the nearest coin exchange. They looked at the coins, looked up the spot price and gave me cash. Easier and more secure than bitcoin.

How many refugees in the world used gold and (at earlier times) diamonds to transfer wealth easily. With bitcoin you might have nothing by the time you get to your new country (or a serious increase in wealth if lucky).
 
In order to predict a crash, you must know what bitcoin is worth. What is bitcoin worth?

Bitcoin allows people to move value outside of totalitarian/confiscatory government borders. I am certain that is the big reason why it is so popular. It has zero intrinsic value, but neither does your favorite scam the US dollar. It's value is that which is ascribed to it by people who are willing to pay for its utility. Do you see any reason why people will stop valuing bitcoin and the adoption rate will plummet? If not, you probably have no business speculating on crashes. That, plus the fact that since you're not willing to short it, means you're not willing to put your money where your mouth is.
I have no business speculating on crashes, and I don't, so I don't short anything. The value of Bitcoin is summed up by your friend who you tell us "is worth hundreds of millions now is happy with it whatever you call it." And that sort of bonanza isn't a reflection of its "utility". I hope he gets out in time.

Here is what I predict. The Bitcoin bubble will pop, and you will then tell us it has gone down because it has been sold short by the villains of the Federal Reserve and the Elders of Zion led by the Rothschilds, trying to rob honest investors, and destroy a rival to their worthless fiat dollar. That's the usual CT nuts' explanation when one of their obsessions goes haywire. A plot.
 
You have told me, contrary to my statement that he was a notorious antisemite, that
It's historical knowledge that JP Morgan was an agent of the Rothschild dynasty in the US.
Could you link me to sources for that, or quote some of the relevant "historical knowledge"?
 
Sure, but that's obvious, and irrelevant. We're not discussing the difference between your job market value and your wage, we're talking about the perpetual debasement of the unit of account for your wage. Are you trolling?
You said that, I quote, "your employer not giving you a raise is not the one ripping you off", and I pointed out this untruth. You are right in that it was an obvious falsehood, yes.

Wrong. See above. If the unit of account for their wages is debased, then their wages as opposed to their nonexistent savings are debased, and they're affected by inflation. Any idea how many minimum wage hours it takes to buy premium Manhattan real estate? Lifetimes. We're going in circles.
Then don't go in circles; I'm not making you. I'm not even sure why you say "wrong", when the first half of this is essentially identical to what I've been saying all along. I suspect you just don't like that I don't find it a big deal.

I said that yes, constant wages do effectively decrease over time if one doesn't get a raise, and that this is a reason why people need to renegotiate wages. And that it's far from the only reason why people need to renegotiate wages.

When I look back over a period of my earnings, they have roughly doubled, whereas inflation over the same period was about 8%. If I hadn't renegotiated my contracts during this time, I would have been a lot worse off, and not because of inflation.

I have no idea how Manhattan real estate value expressed in minimum wage hours is relevant to any of this. You can elaborate on it if you want, but I'm not particularly curious to know.

My original point, which I will restate here, was that bitcoin ought to be compared to other things that people store value in over long term, because they do not, and should not, do that in currencies, and bitcoin makes a particularly lousy currency.

You have since been trying to twist this into a debate of, apparently, some money scam and elite's corruption agenda that you seem to have. While I find it a little charming, I am mostly uninterested in all that.

Why do employers owe their employees raises for inflation? The theft of purchasing power accrued to the money issuer, not the businessman. The businessman's costs all go up, because there are fewer scarce resources as a result of the monetary debasement, yet you want to blame the businessman and not the banker.
Well why would you think the employers owe the employees a fixed value wage for all eternity? They definitely don't. They can give you raises - or they can give you cuts. They can fire you. Someone else can hire you.

Employment is a contract. Inflation is a fact of daily life, as are many other factors that make your work worth more or less over time, often way more significantly than inflation. If you're unhappy with your current contract, renegotiate it, or - if the employer isn't willing - find another employer. That's quite simple.

I am completely unconvinced by the ridiculous argument that the employer is fair to act as if inflation didn't exist, and the resulting devaluation of your wage is not his fault. If your nominal wage hasn't changed for 50 years, and you're still being paid the generous $2 an hour you originally negotiated, while everyone else - including your co-workers that were hired last month - are paid $20 an hour, then no, it's not the bankers that are ripping you off; it's the employer.

It seems you're one of the 999,999 thousand people that Keynes was talking about when he said:

Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
I think you mean 999,999, not 999,999 thousand.
 
Instead of comparing bitcoin with a share, why not compare it with a fiat Federal Reserve Note?

Because there is no agency backing the value of bitcoin. FRN's are backed fundamentally by the GDP of the US, and the requirement that they be acceptable for settling any debt. There is no such agency or economy backing bitcoin.
 
Because there is no agency backing the value of bitcoin. FRN's are backed fundamentally by the GDP of the US, and the requirement that they be acceptable for settling any debt. There is no such agency or economy backing bitcoin.
It just shows that something does not need a government decree or an ability to settle your taxes to be wanted by people.
 
I have no business speculating on crashes, and I don't, so I don't short anything. The value of Bitcoin is summed up by your friend who you tell us "is worth hundreds of millions now is happy with it whatever you call it." And that sort of bonanza isn't a reflection of its "utility". I hope he gets out in time.

I'm so sure you hope he gets out in time, being the caring stranger on the internet that I'm sure you are. At this point, he has "**** you" money, so I doubt whether he needs any well wishing.

Here is what I predict. The Bitcoin bubble will pop, and you will then tell us it has gone down because it has been sold short by the villains of the Federal Reserve and the Elders of Zion led by the Rothschilds, trying to rob honest investors, and destroy a rival to their worthless fiat dollar. That's the usual CT nuts' explanation when one of their obsessions goes haywire. A plot.

Since you don't have any skin in the game, and you don't seem to understand or acknowledge why people seem to like bitcoin, your opinion is useless.

I am here today telling you that in all probability, the Federal Reserve is already involved in bitcoin on the way up, in order to obtain control over it. When you can monetize anything, you can control anything. Whether you think I'm a "nut" is irrelevant, i will keep on speaking the truth as I understand it.
 
I'm so sure you hope he gets out in time, being the caring stranger on the internet that I'm sure you are. At this point, he has "**** you" money, so I doubt whether he needs any well wishing.
He'll need plenty of well wishing if he's still holding Bitcoin when the music stops, but I hope he comes out ahead. If he does, I'm sure you're slandering him by suggesting that wealth will cause him to be contemptuous of other people.

I will keep on speaking the truth as I understand it.
About how the world economy is secretly controlled by the Rothschilds. Yes I'm sure you will keep believing that, and saying it too. One of the things you believe to be the truth is that JP Morgan was an agent of the Rothschilds. That sounds quite interesting - and surprising, and I asked you to present evidence for it. Can you now do so?
 
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He'll need plenty of well wishing if he's still holding Bitcoin when the music stops, but I hope he comes out ahead.
Why should we believe that the "music" will stop this time? Because you are such an authority?

At the moment the price is being driven up entirely by speculation (and probably an injection of drugs money through SilkRoad). This has crash written all over it.
Guess when this prediction was made.
 
Why should we believe that the "music" will stop this time? Because you are such an authority?
I am an authority? Moi?? You've not been keeping up with the financial press comments, eh? Admit it.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ing-20000-cme-stock-markets-tax-business-live

The spot price of bitcoin has also dipped, currently down 1.6% at $18,640 - having hit a new alltime high near $20,000 last night.

CME’s launch of bitcoin futures was accompanied by a series of warnings. For example:

Denmark’s top central banker said bitcoin was dangerous, and investors shouldn’t blame regulators if they lost their money.
A senior Singaporean regulator said bitcoin had no intrinsic value
France’s finance minister is pushing for the G20 to debate bitcoin regulation
UBS’s chairmen, Axel Weber, said regulators should take a closer look at digital currencies
Analysts at ING also put the boot into bitcoin, saying it would eventually become just a ‘niche product’ again.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ing-20000-cme-stock-markets-tax-business-live Yet the Bitcoin bubble is now screaming too loudly to ignore. And it has revealed flaws about the cryptocurrency that I think will keep it from being more widely embraced as a currency and unit of exchange.

http://time.com/money/5066095/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-bubble-pop-signals/

Yet 51 out of 53 economists polled last week by the Wall Street Journal say they think Bitcoin is in a bubble.

There's plenty more where these came from!
 
Why should we believe that the "music" will stop this time? Because you are such an authority?


Guess when this prediction was made.
16 June 2011. Then it was correct and timely. Price peaked in July 2011 at $31, then fell over the rest of the year 2011 to $2. July figure described in History of bitcoinWP as "Top of first bubble, followed by price drop" The present Bitcoin affair is quite a strong example of the bubble phenomenon. It is based on a new and rather obscure technology, which may indeed survive, as tulips and railways and joint stock companies all proceeded to do.

But please be aware of this: these peaks are not expressions of the intrinsic merit of Bitcoin. They are speculative excesses. They may be repeated one or more times, as new speculators are drawn into the market by hucksters, but they will come to an end.

The 1929 US stock boom collapsed in March 1929, picked up again in June, when it went crazy; ran out of steam at the beginning of September, but didn't go pop until the last week in October. Picked up a bit in early 1930, and lost its way during the summer of that year. Then the index went down until July 1932, relentlessly. Took the whole economy down with it. I don't think that'll happen this time. Probably won't.
 
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