Cont: Biden for President? Pt 2

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TragicMonkey said:
Perhaps it's time for a moderator to split this thread, so those who want to have their self-described infinite argument over Reade's credibility can troll each other elsewhere? It's obvious none of those involved are ever going to move on from that subtopic, and their childish exchange is preventing everybody else from discussing the topic. Which is Biden, not the nature of credibility or other posters' feelings on the nature of belief.
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I tried to bring up what I interpret as Klobuchar losing her shot at being Biden's VP, but nobody wanted to respond to that. I feel your pain.
 
wareyin said:
Looks like Klobuchar's chances of getting the VP spot may have dropped. Apparently she chose not to prosecute the Police Officer who murdered Floyd in a previous excessive force citation while she was the county attorney. Whether or not that action was justified, it will definitely cause Biden to lose votes if he picks her.
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Lose votes from whom, though?

Because of the way votes are allocated by the EC, a lot of votes for president are actually redundant. Biden could lose a lot of votes in some blue states, and it wouldn't change the outcome at all. On the other hand, losing a few votes in a few swing states could change everything.

The question when picking a VP isn't, "will I gain or lose votes?" The question is, "which votes will I gain, which will I lose, and which do I need to win?"

Also, every potential pick is going to have dirt on them somewhere. It's not hard to dig it up. The real concern is whether or not the media decides to make something of it, and whether people actually decide to care. If Biden picks Klobuchar, and the media doesn't start blasting the message that she's a bad pick and Biden is a bad candidate for this reason, then it won't matter.

I almost wish he would pick Klobuchar, just to see what would happen. Would Fox News run with the above story? Would their audience overlap with the votes Biden needs, enough for it to matter?

Which PACs would run campaign ads about it? I guess that's probably the real concern: Biden picks Klobuchar, and right-wing PACs start running attack ads on this point in states where Biden needs to keep or gain votes.

So the goal is to pick a candidate whose unavoidable dirt isn't the kind of thing that turns to mud and sticks in swing states (or whatever demographic Biden needs his VP to pick up votes with*).
 
theprestige said:
I almost wish he would pick Klobuchar, just to see what would happen. Would Fox News run with the above story? Would their audience overlap with the votes Biden needs, enough for it to matter?

Which PACs would run campaign ads about it? I guess that's probably the real concern: Biden picks Klobuchar, and right-wing PACs start running attack ads on this point in states where Biden needs to keep or gain votes.
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Do you think for a second that they wouldn't?
 
I think the sort of person who would object to any of the VP choices is already holding their nose to vote for Biden. If they're overcoming their dislike of Biden himself already, then why would the VP matter? It's not going to be a tipping point for people who already loathe Biden and are voting for him anyway.
 
theprestige said:
.....
Also, every potential pick is going to have dirt on them somewhere. It's not hard to dig it up. The real concern is whether or not the media decides to make something of it, and whether people actually decide to care. If Biden picks Klobuchar, and the media doesn't start blasting the message that she's a bad pick and Biden is a bad candidate for this reason, then it won't matter.
.....
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There's dirt, and then there's dirt. If Klobuchar had a proven history of letting bad cops walk while prosecuting minorities for lesser crimes, it's a legitimate criticism and a political deficiency.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/29/amy-klobuchar-previously-declined-to-prosecute-cop/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...9e6984-4057-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html
 
theprestige said:
Lose votes from whom, though?
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Lose votes from those who would otherwise support him. Biden currently has support from most black voters. Picking someone that a significant number of black voters have good reason to be upset with will certainly cause a loss of at least some of those votes. It would give ammo to the dishonest trolls promoting the "both sides are the same" idea all over social media, and people stay home when they think it doesn't matter.

theprestige said:
Because of the way votes are allocated by the EC, a lot of votes for president are actually redundant. Biden could lose a lot of votes in some blue states, and it wouldn't change the outcome at all. On the other hand, losing a few votes in a few swing states could change everything.
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Trump seems to think he can win Minnesota. Biden picking a VP that a lot of Minnesotans are unhappy with would help Trump.

theprestige said:
The question when picking a VP isn't, "will I gain or lose votes?" The question is, "which votes will I gain, which will I lose, and which do I need to win?"

Also, every potential pick is going to have dirt on them somewhere. It's not hard to dig it up. The real concern is whether or not the media decides to make something of it, and whether people actually decide to care. If Biden picks Klobuchar, and the media doesn't start blasting the message that she's a bad pick and Biden is a bad candidate for this reason, then it won't matter.
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There have been riots in multiple states over the killing of Floyd. Klobuchar chose not to prosecute the officer for a similar but lesser offence than the one causing riots. This to you is merely dirt that would have to be dug up?

theprestige said:
I almost wish he would pick Klobuchar, just to see what would happen. Would Fox News run with the above story? Would their audience overlap with the votes Biden needs, enough for it to matter?

Which PACs would run campaign ads about it? I guess that's probably the real concern: Biden picks Klobuchar, and right-wing PACs start running attack ads on this point in states where Biden needs to keep or gain votes.

So the goal is to pick a candidate whose unavoidable dirt isn't the kind of thing that turns to mud and sticks in swing states (or whatever demographic Biden needs his VP to pick up votes with*).
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Fox News would certainly run with the story, as would the rest of the right-wing noise machine. It's too obvious, too controversial, and too immediate in the minds of voters not to.
 
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Beelzebuddy said:
Do you think for a second that they wouldn't?
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Time, money, and advertising slots are all limited resources. They might decide that some other line of attack is a better use of those resources. The Tara Reade thing, for example, or Biden's obvious senility.

Attacking Biden/Klobuchar 2020 over the Floyd cop thing at least has the merit of being a valid objection, even if it is being raised for cynical partisan advantage, rather than a sincere concern about putting the best candidate forward.

The way I see it:

Would Klobuchar get hammered by right-wing PACs about the Floyd Cop Thing, if Biden picks her?

Probably yes.

Would it matter to Biden's election chances?

I don't know. I think it depends on the details of voter demographics and which votes Biden needs to win. I don't have good info on this, though.

It's funny that wareyin is complaining about not discussing Biden's VP options and implications. Some of us, including me, were on that topic a few days ago. Then it turned into an Abrams-Onion slapfight, and then swung right back to bUt tArA ReAdE ThO. With even wareyin getting right back in on that action.

If you want to talk about Biden's veep options, talk about Biden's veep options. Stacy and Telly aren't forcing you to stay stuck on their topic.
 
Bob001 said:
There's dirt, and then there's dirt. If Klobuchar had a proven history of letting bad cops walk while prosecuting minorities for lesser crimes, it's a legitimate criticism and a political deficiency.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/29/amy-klobuchar-previously-declined-to-prosecute-cop/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...9e6984-4057-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html
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I agree that it's a legitimate criticism*. I'm not sure it's actually a political deficiency in this particular context. I think it probably is, but again, it comes down to electoral demographics.

It would be a political deficiency for Klobuchar during the primaries, when she's trying to convince a majority of Democrats to nominate her. But that ship has already sailed.

There's always the possibility that this all blows over by the convention, and attack ads at that point will just fall flat.

I don't have the answers, but I think those are the kinds of questions that probably get asked when selecting a VP. So that's kind of what I'm watching for, in the run-up to the convention.

---
*In principle. I'm not sure it's legitimate to criticize her for cynical partisan advantage.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I think the sort of person who would object to any of the VP choices is already holding their nose to vote for Biden. If they're overcoming their dislike of Biden himself already, then why would the VP matter? It's not going to be a tipping point for people who already loathe Biden and are voting for him anyway.
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I think this is probably true for mainstream Democratic voters. The question is really about undecideds in swing states.

If you subscribe to the theory that there's no such thing as an "undecided" voter, then it's about subsets of voter turnout in swing states. How many left-wing Democrats will stay home in swing states, because Biden isn't leftward enough, or doesn't care enough about police brutality? How many moderate conservatives will bother to turn out, because they're sufficiently motivated to stop a Biden presidency? Etc.
 
theprestige said:
Time, money, and advertising slots are all limited resources. They might decide that some other line of attack is a better use of those resources. The Tara Reade thing, for example, or Biden's obvious senility.

Attacking Biden/Klobuchar 2020 over the Floyd cop thing at least has the merit of being a valid objection, even if it is being raised for cynical partisan advantage, rather than a sincere concern about putting the best candidate forward.

The way I see it:

Would Klobuchar get hammered by right-wing PACs about the Floyd Cop Thing, if Biden picks her?

Probably yes.

Would it matter to Biden's election chances?

I don't know. I think it depends on the details of voter demographics and which votes Biden needs to win. I don't have good info on this, though.
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Unfortunately for the state of US Politics, Biden basically needs every vote to win. Trump and the GOP are consistently winning elections with fewer voters than their competition already. Any further loss, especially in potential swing states like Minnesota, will be devastating.

theprestige said:
It's funny that wareyin is complaining about not discussing Biden's VP options and implications. Some of us, including me, were on that topic a few days ago. Then it turned into an Abrams-Onion slapfight, and then swung right back to bUt tArA ReAdE ThO. With even wareyin getting right back in on that action.
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1:Abrams was and still is a potential VP pick, despite certain conservative posters getting fooled by satire pieces.
2:Sorry for responding to you about Reade. It doesn't quite seem honest to complain that people respond to you about stuff you post, but if that's the way you want to roll...

theprestige said:
If you want to talk about Biden's veep options, talk about Biden's veep options. Stacy and Telly theprestige and xjx388 aren't forcing you to stay stuck on their topic.
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ftfy
 
TragicMonkey said:
I think the sort of person who would object to any of the VP choices is already holding their nose to vote for Biden. If they're overcoming their dislike of Biden himself already, then why would the VP matter? It's not going to be a tipping point for people who already loathe Biden and are voting for him anyway.
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The VP choice always matters. McCain hurt himself badly by picking Sarah Palin. Newcomer Obama strengthened his ticket by picking one of the most respected and experienced (and white male) senators. I think Hillary hurt herself by picking competent and inoffensive Tim Kaine rather than somebody who could function as an attack dog against Trump. I don't think too many potential Biden voters will turn to Trump, but they might just stay home if they don't like his VP.
 
wareyin said:
Unfortunately for the state of US Politics, Biden basically needs every vote to win. Trump and the GOP are consistently winning elections with fewer voters than their competition already. Any further loss, especially in potential swing states like Minnesota, will be devastating.



1:Abrams was and still is a potential VP pick, despite certain conservative posters getting fooled by satire pieces.
2:Sorry for responding to you about Reade. It doesn't quite seem honest to complain that people respond to you about stuff you post, but if that's the way you want to roll...



ftfy
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LOL. And yet you keep getting stuck on it.
 
Bob001 said:
The VP choice always matters. McCain hurt himself badly by picking Sarah Palin. Newcomer Obama strengthened his ticket by picking one of the most respected and experienced (and white male) senators. I think Hillary hurt herself by picking competent and inoffensive Tim Kaine rather than somebody who could function as an attack dog against Trump. I don't think too many potential Biden voters will turn to Trump, but they might just stay home if they don't like his VP.
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Exactly. Personally a much younger me was turned off of Gore by his pick of Lieberman. I was already unhappy that Gore's wife was very pro-censorship of music, and Lieberman's pro-censorship stance was the tipping point.
 
wareyin said:
What, that Minnesota is a potential swing state and that picking someone Minnesotans are unhappy with would be a bad idea?
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Aren't Minnesota busy being on fire with riots at the moment? Surely whatever's left of the place by November will have bigger fishes to pizza.
 
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