Cont: Biden for President? Pt 2

[Stacyhs]

As you can see, I've been talking about other stuff.

I threw that one in there so you'd have something to talk about.
If you'd prefer to talk about the other stuff, feel free to skip right over it. Like I said the other day, I'm not really interested in dinging Biden on gaffes and whatnot.

Wanna talk about veep choices and implications instead? It'll be tricky, dodging the Babylon Bee articles about Abrams, but I think it's do-able.
Actually, forget all that.

Good idea. It really wasn't worth responding to as the highlighted sentences reveal its true intention.

We have a huge long thread about how laypeople and professionals alike can totally diagnose mental health from footage of public appearances. So I'm not going to argue with you about it.

Nah. I've pretty much bowed out of that merry-go-round quite some time ago. Nothing much new said for a long time.

Quite frankly, an argument between us doesn't really matter. What matters is how voters perceive Biden. If Dem turnout in swing states is depressed because of how Biden talks and acts in his video clips, that's a problem even if he's not even remotely senile.

I think most people are far more worried about how Trump talks, acts, and tweets than Biden.

Don't worry about me saying it. Worry about CNN saying it. Worry about Rachel Maddow* saying it.*I kid. Maddow would never say it, especially if she thought it was true. Plus, even if she did, I don't think she has the ratings to make it worrisome.

It doesn't worry me one bit. CNN and Maddow recognize it for what it is: crap.

---

 

[thaiboxerken]

For the assertion that Maddow would not cover the story if she thought it was true is nonsense.

 

[theprestige]

I think most people are far more worried about how Trump talks, acts, and tweets than Biden.

Well, yeah: Blue states are more populous than red states, after all.

Since we're discussing the question of Biden for president, do you have reasons for thinking more voters in swing states are worried about that? Worried enough to make a difference in the election?

 

[Stacyhs]

Well, yeah: Blue states are more populous than red states, after all.

Since we're discussing the question of Biden for president, do you have reasons for thinking more voters in swing states are worried about that? Worried enough to make a difference in the election?

Yes, I do:

There was a long history of vilifying HRC by the GOP that was quite successful with other voters than fellow GOP. A lot of people who wouldn't vote for her would vote for Biden.

President Donald Trump is losing a critical constituency: voters who see two choices on the ballot — and hate them both.

Unlike in 2016, when a large group of voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton broke sharply for Trump, the opposite is happening now, according to public polling and private surveys conducted by Republicans and Democrats alike.

It's a significant and often underappreciated group of voters. Of the nearly 20 percent of voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in 2016, Trump outperformed Clinton by about 17 percentage points, according to exit polls.

Four years later, that same group — including a mix of Bernie Sanders supporters, other Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents — strongly prefers Biden, the polling shows. The former vice president leads Trump by more than 40 percentage points among that group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of registered voters, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.

Traditionally Red Arizona:

Biden leads Trump by 4 points in the RealClearPolitics average. He’s led by between 1 point and 9 points in every survey conducted since March. The most recent OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) poll found Biden ahead by 7 points.

Florida:
Biden has a narrow edge in the RealClearPolitics average, leading by 3.3 points, but recent surveys show the race is within the margin of error, and the underlying data points toward a contest that could go either way.

Michigan
But Trump carried the Wolverine State by only about 10,000 votes, and he faces a difficult challenge there in 2020, as four polls released this month find him trailing by between 3 points and 9 points.

The Hodas & Associates poll that found Biden ahead by 9 points put Trump’s favorability rating deep underwater, at 39 percent positive and 56 percent negative.

N. Carolina

Trump is performing better in the Tar Heel State than in any of the other five battlegrounds, but he still leads Biden by only 1 point in the RealClearPolitics average. Trump won North Carolina by 3.5 points in 2016.

Pennsylvania
The Keystone State went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after going for the Democratic presidential candidate in every prior race dating back to 1988.

Biden, who was born in Scranton and feels a kinship to the blue-collar workers there, has a wider lead in Pennsylvania than in any other battleground. He leads by 6.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

A recent Fox News poll that found Biden leading by 8 points underscores Trump’s challenge.

Wisconsin

Democrats view Wisconsin, with its predominantly white electorate, as the least likely of the “blue wall” states to return to their column in 2020.

But polling shows Biden holding a small but consistent lead in the state. He leads Trump by 2.7 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499241-where-biden-trump-stand-in-key-swing-states

 

[theprestige]

Yes, I do:

There was a long history of vilifying HRC by the GOP that was quite successful with other voters than fellow GOP. A lot of people who wouldn't vote for her would vote for Biden.


Traditionally Red Arizona:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499241-where-biden-trump-stand-in-key-swing-states

Granted Biden is polling better right now than Clinton was this time last time. To be clear: You are attributing this to Fox and Limbaugh not having trashed him very much to their audiences yet. Is that correct?

 

[Stacyhs]

Granted Biden is polling better right now than Clinton was this time last time. To be clear: You are attributing this to Fox and Limbaugh not having trashed him very much to their audiences yet. Is that correct?

No.

 

[Segnosaur]

Granted Biden is polling better right now than Clinton was this time last time. To be clear: You are attributing this to Fox and Limbaugh not having trashed him very much to their audiences yet. Is that correct?

Not just fox and rush lymphnode.. but the Republican party had been trashing Hillary for a decade prior to the 2016 election. That allows their rhetoric to become deeply ingrained in the psyche of the electorate.

By comparison Biden got very little attention back then. (And very little prior to the current primaries.) Yes he was vp, but he wasn't front and center over things like Benghazi. Yes, Trump's bootlickers will trash Biden from now until November, but I suspect it won't have the same effect as the long-term attacks on Clinton. The dislike won't run as deep.

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

 

[Stacyhs]

Not just fox and rush lymphnode.. but the Republican party had been trashing Hillary for a decade prior to the 2016 election. That allows their rhetoric to become deeply ingrained in the psyche of the electorate.

By comparison Biden got very little attention back then. (And very little prior to the current primaries.) Yes he was vp, but he wasn't front and center over things like Benghazi. Yes, Trump's bootlickers will trash Biden from now until November, but I suspect it won't have the same effect as the long-term attacks on Clinton. The dislike won't run as deep.

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

Agreed. What the Trump campaign is planning on and what FOX, Limbaugh, Hannity and the rest of their ilk plan on doing is no different than what they've always done. But dislike for Hillary ran very deep because it stretched back for decades starting when she was First Lady of Arkansas.

On the other hand, there is SO much ammunition against Trump the Dems can and will use against him.... and he just keeps on handing them bullets every day.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Agreed. What the Trump campaign is planning on and what FOX, Limbaugh, Hannity and the rest of their ilk plan on doing is no different than what they've always done. But dislike for Hillary ran very deep because it stretched back for decades starting when she was First Lady of Arkansas.

On the other hand, there is SO much ammunition against Trump the Dems can and will use against him.... and he just keeps on handing them bullets every day.

That might not work. People don't care anymore about truth. Dems talking about Trump Trump Trump may actually help Trump. Biden has minisculle media presence. Trump is making sure of that.

 

[Stacyhs]

That might not work. People don't care anymore about truth. Dems talking about Trump Trump Trump may actually help Trump. Biden has minisculle media presence. Trump is making sure of that.

What else can the Dems do except fight fire with fire? Sit back passively while Trump puts out attack ads on Biden? Negative ads work. That's why they use them.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I tried to bring up what I interpret as Klobuchar losing her shot at being Biden's VP, but nobody wanted to respond to that. I feel your pain.

I did but the link was broke. That or Yahoo took the story down. I did find other links but by that time I was sleepy.

I am glad, I don't want to see him pick someone that makes him look even more untenable to Progressives than he already does.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/poli...ainst-trump-ad-campaign/?hpt=ob_blogfooterold

It's nice to see there are some Republicans who still love their country. A group Republicans got together and is running TV and digital ads to get conservatives to vote for Biden and return to American values.

Yay, a return to sanity!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think the sort of person who would object to any of the VP choices is already holding their nose to vote for Biden. If they're overcoming their dislike of Biden himself already, then why would the VP matter? It's not going to be a tipping point for people who already loathe Biden and are voting for him anyway.

I'm one of those people, I'll vote for Biden regardless of his VP pick. I'd still like to see a better symbolic pick than someone who just seems like a pick for the usual reasons, which constituents will the VP bring along. Biden doesn't need to do that. But IMO, he should consider a pick that would ease the minds of some of the Warren/Sanders camps.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The VP choice always matters. McCain hurt himself badly by picking Sarah Palin. Newcomer Obama strengthened his ticket by picking one of the most respected and experienced (and white male) senators. I think Hillary hurt herself by picking competent and inoffensive Tim Kaine rather than somebody who could function as an attack dog against Trump. I don't think too many potential Biden voters will turn to Trump, but they might just stay home if they don't like his VP.

This ^

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I do hope Biden picks Warren, because it would be such a strong signal that the Dems are fielding their A-team.
Warren can cover Biden on policy expertise and against the accusations of working for Wall Street.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

So Klobuchar's star is falling in the VP consideration, right?

If these riots and anti-police sentiments continue, I can't see how having a DA that never prosecuted a single cop during her career (including our murderer of George Floyd on a previous shooting) is a good choice for the party.

May this be the death knell of "tough on crime" Democrats.

 

[theprestige]

No.

Then we're talking past each other.

 

[theprestige]

I did but the link was broke. That or Yahoo took the story down. I did find other links but by that time I was sleepy.

I am glad, I don't want to see him pick someone that makes him look even more untenable to Progressives than he already does.

Unless "untenable to progressives" means depressing progressive turnout in swing states, I don't see the problem.

Which VP choice do you think would boost progressive turnout in swing states?

 

[wareyin]

So Klobuchar's star is falling in the VP consideration, right?

If these riots and anti-police sentiments continue, I can't see how having a DA that never prosecuted a single cop during her career (including our murderer of George Floyd on a previous shooting) is a good choice for the party.

May this be the death knell of "tough on crime" Democrats.

Not just falling, but in the words of Biden's people "we need to avoid her."

 

[Dr.Sid]

What else can the Dems do except fight fire with fire? Sit back passively while Trump puts out attack ads on Biden? Negative ads work. That's why they use them.

Dems should talk about Biden. Biden must be in the media. Preferably in good light. For every news article about Trump, there must be one about Biden. It would also help if Biden was not portrayed anti-Trump in every aspect. Trump does, by a pure chance or as an accident, do something right time to time. Just acknowledge that.
Biden needs to increase media presence 10 times.