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Best Cold Reading demo?

Paul C. Anagnostopoulos said:
No statistical analysis of transcripts is ever going to convince me, unless it includes a reasonable calculation of the probability of each hit occurring by chance. I doubt very much that's ever going to happen.

So, those psychics should take another tack. How about finding the next ten missing kids?

~~ Paul
I totally agree, Paul.

If a self-proclaimed psychic does find any missing child or person, purely through supernatural means, then -- and only then -- will I take any type of psychic seriously.

Otherwise, all the psychics I've seen, on TV and otherwise, are pretty much practicing cold reading, IMO.
 
Originally posted by Paul C. Anagnostopoulos


No statistical analysis of transcripts is ever going to convince me, unless it includes a reasonable calculation of the probability of each hit occurring by chance. I doubt very much that's ever going to happen.


So you would follow the conclusions from statistics and probabiltiy here but don't want to in PEAR? Confusing.
 
Forgive me for jumping in, but I don't see how your conclusion follows, T'ai.

Paul has stated why he won't follow the statistics here and what it would take for him to follow them. Don't gloss over that; it is not trivial.

Second, as I have seen pointed out to you on more than one occasion, the PEAR experiments are flawed, and the experimenters themselves state that no conclusion regarding the existence of psi can be drawn from them.
 
lynne said:
There is a very good reason transcripts of cold reading sessions aren't readily available - and that is because a trasncsript can rarely convey what happens in a session. I could write one up, but you would lose a lot of what happens. Let me attempt an explanation and give an example.

I do cold readings on a regular basis using the techniques as described in Ian's book, and have done so for a few years now. I have created my own divination system, called Tauromancy, because when I did the readings with Tarot or Astrology, people said that even though I was telling them I was a fraud, the system was still working. So I constructed my own system based on small gold masks and various patterned chop sticks, into which I built the cold reading elements. Let me describe a session which happened a few weeks ago at a Psychology teachers' conference when I was doing readings on teachers so they could feel what it was like to have the experience. The word 'feel' is very important.

A mid-twenties woman sat down. She laid out the masks and I did all the preliminaries as described in the set-up section of Ian's book. I take that section VERY seriously. But you can't see the laying out of the masks and the way I twist my wording to match them - so a transcript immediately loses the way I work. OK, I said that she was hoping to have children one day. Pretty standard. She said: "Yes, we do." There's the transcript. Here's the key: she said it with a reserve and a sadness in her face. Something there. The 'we' told me she was in a steady relationship. I sidetracked and a minute or so later came to a mask which represents health. I said there was a health issue concerning her. That is the start which can almost always get me a hit with further effort, depending on how she reacts. She reacted very fast so I knew it was close to her. She said nothing. Hence - not a word in the transcript. Had she reacted slower, I would have headed for older people in her family.

At this stage I went straight for the big hit. I said, with warmth and compassion: endometriosis and nodded knowingly. (For the guys - this is a very common female condition which is a major cause of fertility worries. Mid-twenties women are usually pretty healthy otherwise.) She said, with the required shock and loud enough for all those watching to hear: "But no-one knew that except my husband and doctor!" and the classic line which is my measure of success with a reading "There is NO way you could have known that!"

There were two other possibilities: she had been tested for endometriosis - which would give me a hit anyway. Almost a certainty if he had fertility concerns. Note - I did not actually say she had endometriosis. I merely named it. She heard it as if I had said it and in my reply I went on as if I had. Had she said 'no' I would have suggested, quietly, she talk to her doctor about it. I would have nodded and she would have nodded and the audience, unable to hear quite what I said, would have seen all the nodding and I still had a firm hit - the believers would have been convinced I knew something.

The reading went on for ten minutes but by this stage I had her so much convinced and had so much key information, I had complete control and could have gone 'in for the kill' which is what I consider the TV psychics do as soon as they sense the tears. A transcript of the actual wording would tell very little of what happened and someone reading a transcript could not get the full effect.

Unlike those who exploit in order to entertain and make a personal profit and reputation, I could not go on when she was clearly emotional affected by what I had done. So I stopped the reading and debriefed on exactly what I had done. I always do that. I guess it is all about how ethically you use cold reading skills.

cheers,

Lynne

What was this woman's reaction, Lynne, when you fessed up to the hoax and essentially yanked the rug out from under her?
 
Hi UnTrickaBLe,

I didn't need to fess up. I almost always operate having explained I am cold reading before I start as I did in this case. I was sitting under a sign which read 'Australian Skeptics' which was a bit of a give away. She was a psychology teacher at a psychology teachers' conference where I was invited to demonstrate Barnum Statements which are part of our year 11 Psychology course.

I did stop the reading and explain exactly how I had got there. It is pretty amazing how well the readings work even when you are quite honest about what you are doing. Mind you, by the time I have done the thorough Set-up - my version of that section in Ian Rowland's book - the sitter is then a little confused by what is real and what is not and I don't break character again until the end of the reading. None is real - the whole system is my own creation so I could be sure I was being totally scientific and had eliminated anything which may have a validity - which is why I don't use tarot / astrology / numerology or dead people.

At no stage do I consider such readings as a joke or a way to make fun of the sitters. It is a joint venture for both of us to learn more about what is really happening - which worked particularly well in this case because she was so well informed already and so honest about how she had felt completely drawn in. The discussion afterwards is always a really warm event. That's why I gained so much from doing a reading on a professional tarot reader and then discussing it honestly afterwards. I think I've mentioned it before, but in case: we concluded we were doing the same thing except she was giving the credit to the cards and I was taking all the credit myself.

So some 'psychic readers' are not really so different from us cold readers. Some seem to use the word 'psychic' to mean intuitive and then you are very close to what I think I am doing. The line is not clear.

Let me know if I still haven't answered your question.

cheers,

Lynne
 

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