Assistance required for telepathy proof

[Resume]

To Pixel42,

If a 99% poly makes one indication that the robber did rob the bank, then you are saying that the poly is only 50% accurate as it has two choices, robbed or did not rob. No the poly is 99% accurate with one test, not 50%.

golfy

Polygraphs are crap.

 

[Sledge]

Throwing this thought out there: given the known uselessness of polygraphs, would a claim to be able ot use one with 100% (or close to) accuracy be a suitable claim for the JREF?

 

[Akhenaten]

Has golfy said yet what it would take to convince him that people can't hear his thoughts?

He seems to be making up new excuses for his "poly" at each turn. Improper lubrication is my favorite so far, but at what point will golfy believe that a failed test is golfy's fault?

I'd ask golfy but it's like pulling teeth.

So why, oh knower of everything does Lafayette sell it?

http://www.lafayettepolygraph.com/product_detail.asp?ItemID=1397

I have an Axciton, could not find it on their website though but conductive gel is available on eBay, so I have bought some. If you don't know what you are talking about, perhaps not commenting maybe wise.

golfy

Same reason anyone sells anything: because someone will buy it. Was that really so hard to figure out?

Wrong, they sell the gel as it improves the accuracy of the poly by ensuring a good electrical conection to the electrodes, gets around different peoples skin conductivity differences and will therefore make the tests more repeatable across a wider range of people. Duh!

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

Golfy, I already know that you don't have any idea how a polygraph works, but now it seems that you don't even understand the GSR component on which so much of your 'testing' has so far depended.

GSR stands for Galvanic Skin Response. A GSR device measures the Skin Conductance Level (SCL). The GSR is, in fact, a type of ohmmeter, similar to the Wheatstone bridge-based e-meter that the $cilons pretend to use.

The reason that you want to measure the SCL is that the sweat glands are controlled by the sympathetic nervous system, which means that skin conductance can be used as an indication of emotional stress or arousal.

Now, Golfy, what do you reckon would be the result of replacing the moisture present on the skin as a result of stress (the thing you want to measure) with gobs of conductive jelly? (Hint: baring the wires leading to the GSR sensor and soldering them together/tying them in a knot will produce about the same result)

The conductive jelly is to ensure a good connection for ECG sensors, which I have no doubt that you have even less idea about how to use than you do the rest of your 'equipment'.

This is why I will win the $1M and you will not. I am making an effort to get the correct results.

golfy

Have another guess.

 

[Pixel42]

To Pixel42,

If a 99% poly makes one indication that the robber did rob the bank, then you are saying that the poly is only 50% accurate as it has two choices, robbed or did not rob. No the poly is 99% accurate with one test, not 50%.

A 99% accurate polygraph has a 99% chance of getting the right answer. That means that for every 100 times you use it it will get the right answer 99 times and the wrong answer once.

A 80% accurate polygraph has an 80% chance of getting the right answer. That means that for every 100 times you use it it will get the right answer 80 times and the wrong answer 20 times.

But how accurate the polygraph is or is not makes no difference to the success criteria of your cat/ship test, which is the number of hits you need to get in order to prove that you have a paranormal ability and are not just making lucky guesses. That success criteria depends entirely on the type of test you are doing. For your cat/ship test, where there is a 50% chance of guessing correctly each run, you need to get the right answer at least 19 times out of 20 (or 26 times out of 30) for there to be a less than 1 in 10000 chance that you just guessed lucky. That's your target. Period. The only way to change it would be to change the type of test - for example have three words, say 'cat', 'ship' and 'book', which would mean you only have a 33% chance of guessing correctly each run. That would make your target 16 out of 20 runs, or 21 out of 30 runs.

The method with which you make your predictions, the tools that method requires, the accuracy of those tools - none of these things make a ha'porth of difference to the number of hits you need to get in order to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that you really do have a paranormal ability, and are not just making lucky guesses. They only affect how likely you are to meet that target. You cannot use the tables/your calculations to see what difference the accuracy of the polygraph makes to the hit rate required, which is what I think you're trying to do, because it makes no difference.

Do you understand this, golfy? Because until you do you cannot agree a test protocol with JREF. The success criteria is a vital part of that protocol, and JREF know how to calculate it.

 

[golfy]

Are you seriously arguing with the notion that shops sell things because other people will buy them? Good grief, man, stop and listen to yourself for a moment.

Superficial oversimplified lack of understanding nonsense as usual Sledge. I am obviously arguing the (beyond Sledge’s simple fantasy world mentality) more complex point that people buy things that make an improvement to something in some way, not simply because objects are on sale. Men buy rugby boots, not high heel shoes as it improves their performance on the pitch as they play on grass. Women buy high heel shoes as it improves the shape of their calves, their visual height and their self image. The girls would not buy a nice outfit then a pair of rugby boots to go out in as that would be a negative effect, not positive. Their legs would look short and dumpy and not very visually appealing compared to the other girls legs.

The gel creates a positive effect, enhances something (the poly’s performance) and so people will buy it. If it made GSR channel function at reduced performance, then people would not buy it just because it is on sale. I do not buy stale bread just because someone will sell it, as I perceive that this would give me a negative eating experience, but I would buy a Burger King burger for more money as this would be a positive eating experience despite the increase in cost. Think Sledge, think.

golfy

 

[beren]

While you are at it, please explain why people buy this: http://www.baconnaise.com/

 

[golfy]

A 99% accurate polygraph has a 99% chance of getting the right answer. That means that for every 100 times you use it it will get the right answer 99 times and the wrong answer once.

A 80% accurate polygraph has an 80% chance of getting the right answer. That means that for every 100 times you use it it will get the right answer 80 times and the wrong answer 20 times.

But how accurate the polygraph is or is not makes no difference to the success criteria of your cat/ship test, which is the number of hits you need to get in order to prove that you have a paranormal ability and are not just making lucky guesses. That success criteria depends entirely on the type of test you are doing. For your cat/ship test, where there is a 50% chance of guessing correctly each run, you need to get the right answer at least 19 times out of 20 (or 26 times out of 30) for there to be a less than 1 in 10000 chance that you just guessed lucky. That's your target. Period. The only way to change it would be to change the type of test - for example have three words, say 'cat', 'ship' and 'book', which would mean you only have a 33% chance of guessing correctly each run. That would make your target 16 out of 20 runs, or 21 out of 30 runs.

The method with which you make your predictions, the tools that method requires, the accuracy of those tools - none of these things make a ha'porth of difference to the number of hits you need to get in order to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that you really do have a paranormal ability, and are not just making lucky guesses. They only affect how likely you are to meet that target. You cannot use the tables/your calculations to see what difference the accuracy of the polygraph makes to the hit rate required, which is what I think you're trying to do, because it makes no difference.

Do you understand this, golfy? Because until you do you cannot agree a test protocol with JREF. The success criteria is a vital part of that protocol, and JREF know how to calculate it.

Hi Pixel42,

Yes I fully understand what you are saying, but I am not certain that is it correct and would like a third opinion (not you Sledge, I said opinion, not fantasy land guess).

Your statement “But how accurate the polygraph is or is not makes no difference to the success criteria of your cat/ship test” doe not sit well with me. I am prepared to accept it but in a test with a (hypothetical for those that live in the mega pedantic world) 100% polygraph it would a 100:0 assessment, not a 50:50 guess. This would effectively be a 100% certainty that the RX is lying on one of the two questions asked, and therefore can hear my thoughts.

I am prepared to accept if that is the standard method of testing that it has to be done of the 50% scale, but would just like further confirmation from someone in the know – no offence Pixcel42.

I’ll endeavour to get that confirmation/rejection from a Dr who investigates PSI etc.

golfy

 

[Psiload]

Superficial oversimplified lack of understanding nonsense as usual Sledge. I am obviously arguing the (beyond Sledge’s simple fantasy world mentality) more complex point that people buy things that make an improvement to something in some way, not simply because objects are on sale. Men buy rugby boots, not high heel shoes as it improves their performance on the pitch as they play on grass. Women buy high heel shoes as it improves the shape of their calves, their visual height and their self image. The girls would not buy a nice outfit then a pair of rugby boots to go out in as that would be a negative effect, not positive. Their legs would look short and dumpy and not very visually appealing compared to the other girls legs.

The gel creates a positive effect, enhances something (the poly’s performance) and so people will buy it. If it made GSR channel function at reduced performance, then people would not buy it just because it is on sale. I do not buy stale bread just because someone will sell it, as I perceive that this would give me a negative eating experience, but I would buy a Burger King burger for more money as this would be a positive eating experience despite the increase in cost. Think Sledge, think.

golfy

Wow, your rugby boots analogy is utter crap.

Here's a better one. A Polygraph(specifically the GSR) is like a door. It's function is to open and allow honest people to pass through, and shut in order to bar entry to people who are lying.

By using conductive jelly on the electrodes, what you're essentially doing is wedging the door shut and allowing nobody, both honest people and liars alike, to pass through.

Just like a door that's wedged shut is no longer a door, a GSR device whose electrodes are greased with conductive jelly is no longer a polygraph. It's just an Everybody is lying machine.

 

[golfy]

While you are at it, please explain why people buy this: http://www.baconnaise.com/

“OK, now. Tell me a sandwich that wouldn’t taste better with that?? What wouldn’t I put this on? Why would I ever use mayonnaise? Why? I’m never buying regular mayonnaise again.”

That answer was from their customer feedback on a web page. They presumably buy it as their answer shows, it adds to their eating experience in a positive way, not a negative way. Same as I sad before. Is this to hard for you guys?

golfy

 

[Pixel42]

Your statement “But how accurate the polygraph is or is not makes no difference to the success criteria of your cat/ship test” doe not sit well with me. I am prepared to accept it but in a test with a (hypothetical for those that live in the mega pedantic world) 100% polygraph it would a 100:0 assessment, not a 50:50 guess. This would effectively be a 100% certainty that the RX is lying on one of the two questions asked, and therefore can hear my thoughts.

I don't think I can explain this any more clearly than I already have, but I'll give it one more try.

The success criteria for a test like this is based solely on how many hits a person without any paranormal ability is likely to get, i.e. how many hits would be expected if they just made random guesses. This is compared with the number of hits the claimant gets using their paranormal ability: if that ability exists and is 100% reliable then they should get a hit every time, but they should still do significantly better than random guessing as long as they have any paranormal ability at all, even if it isn't 100% reliable.

The fact that your belief that no-one can be trusted obliges you to use a tool that is probably not 100% accurate, and which therefore reduces the reliability of your supposed paranormal ability, is your problem, nobody else's. The success criteria you have to beat stays the same, because the number of hits someone who was just guessing at random and ignoring the polygraph would be expected to get stays the same. Your insistence on using a polygraph which may be less than 100% accurate, instead of using someone you can trust as the receiver and simply taking their word for which word they think you're sending, just makes it more difficult for you to achieve that target hit rate. But it's an extra obstacle you're deliberately putting in your own way because of your unjustified paranoia.

By all means check this reasoning with anyone who knows anything about probability theory, but don't expect a different answer.

 

[golfy]

Wow, your rugby boots analogy is utter crap.

Here's a better one. A Polygraph(specifically the GSR) is like a door. It's function is to open and allow honest people to pass through, and shut in order to bar entry to people who are lying.

By using conductive jelly on the electrodes, what you're essentially doing is wedging the door shut and allowing nobody, both honest people and liars alike, to pass through.

Just like a door that's wedged shut is no longer a door, a GSR device whose electrodes are greased with conductive jelly is no longer a polygraph. It's just an Everybody is lying machine.

I can’t be bothered to reply to paranoid, lack of substance, ill informed clap trap posts ever time. That is the most ridiculous answer so far. It show a complete lack of understanding etc etc.

I did two experiments in a University on a GSR. I participated in a experiment where 250 people were tested. All of us were connected to a GSR to measure our response to the TX who was 40 yards away whilst the RX was in a sound proof booth on the GSR with conductive jelly on the electrodes. No one produced any results apart from me, yet we all were involved in “Just like a door that's wedged shut is no longer a door, a GSR device whose electrodes are greased with conductive jelly is no longer a polygraph. It's just an Everybody is lying machine.”

You show a complete lack of knowledge. Stop posting BS.

golfy

 

[skip]

Just like a door that's wedged shut is no longer a door, a GSR device whose electrodes are greased with conductive jelly is no longer a polygraph. It's just an Everybody is lying machine.

And that is exactly what he is shooting for.. He is 100% certain he is telepathic. Everyone lies. So a device that shows everyone to be liars is 100% proof he’s telepathic. He will just keep adding things to the test till every test comes out to his satisfaction. If a test produces a negative result there must be something wrong with the test.

Test one: can you hear my thoughts? No! well you’re a liar. I need a lie detector.

Test Two: Can you hear my thoughts now. No! the lie detector isn’t working right, I need some gel.

Test Three: Can you hear my thoughts. NO! I need a lie detector, some gel, the remote control, this paddle ball game, a book of matches.

 

[Psiload]

I can’t be bothered to reply to paranoid, lack of substance, ill informed clap trap posts ever time. That is the most ridiculous answer so far. It show a complete lack of understanding etc etc.

I did two experiments in a University on a GSR. I participated in a experiment where 250 people were tested. All of us were connected to a GSR to measure our response to the TX who was 40 yards away whilst the RX was in a sound proof booth on the GSR with conductive jelly on the electrodes. No one produced any results apart from me, yet we all were involved in “Just like a door that's wedged shut is no longer a door, a GSR device whose electrodes are greased with conductive jelly is no longer a polygraph. It's just an Everybody is lying machine.”

You show a complete lack of knowledge. Stop posting BS.

golfy

I was a clinical engineer(medical electronic equipment technician) for over fifteen years. I can, and have, built GSR measuring devices(ohmmeters). I have also taken apart and(successfully) put back together ECGs, EEGs, defibrillators, etc...

But, I'm always willing to learn. So, I'll put this simple question to you.

How does a GSR measuring device discern the difference between perspiration moisture on a person's skin and conductive jelly? How does it know the difference?

 

[golfy]

Hi Pixel42,

Yes I get that and am willing to stick to the 50% graph as I think that it should be doable if I get the GSR working as I expect. I still think that the poly has weight in the statistics and therefore should be taken into account.

The unjustified paranoia thing is total BS.

Just out of interest again, don’t get upset.

I would guess (accurately) that if I am proven to be telepathic on my cat ship test then we will never meet face to face, even though I will put some posts on this forum after proof has been obtained, as you would not want to be proven that you as well can hear my thoughts. If we did meet then you may suddenly say "Oh I can hear you now" to cover up your previous indications that you could not hear me as "lack of awareness". My premise is that you as well as everyone else can hear me and have always been able to hear me and are just lying.

Despite your claims that I am paranoid and that you cannot hear me and that I am not telepathic, will you endeavour to stick to your word and meet up later so that I can prove myself to be correct that you can and will be able to hear me when we (if you agree) meet up and do a telepathy test which will prove one of us to be correct.

You can of course bring as many companions as you wish if you feel I am paranoid to a degree of danger, which I am not of course. There will presumably be some kind of officiality in the form of scientists or knowledgeable observers.

golfy

 

[golfy]

I was a clinical engineer(medical electronic equipment technician) for over fifteen years. I can, and have, built GSR measuring devices(ohmmeters). I have also taken apart and(successfully) put back together ECGs, EEGs, defibrillators, etc...

But, I'm always willing to learn. So, I'll put this simple question to you.

How does a GSR measuring device discern the difference between perspiration moisture on a person's skin and conductive jelly? How does it know the difference?

Like with an ECG or other instruments, conductive gel is applied to the sensor pad itself. These pads, two on a poly, then conduct locally to the place of measurement, such as in this photo on the left of the screen of a hand with two sensors on at http://www.axciton.com/ - the picture goes through a sequence so you may have to wait a while.

The gel is applied to the sensor, not the hand so that the sensor is conducting to the hand correctly at the place of contact. The hand itself is left clean. Measurements can also taken across two fingers like my GSR, the fingers are clean, only the tips where there is point of contact have the gel on them.

When the person gets stressed and perspires on the clean part of their skin, the conductivity between the sensor pads reduces, and the GSR measures a stress increase.

golfy

 

[Pixel42]

I would guess (accurately) that if I am proven to be telepathic on my cat ship test then we will never meet face to face, even though I will put some posts on this forum after proof has been obtained, as you would not want to be proven that you as well can hear my thoughts.

No, that is not an accurate guess. If you were to obtain scientific proof that you were telepathic I would be delighted, as it would open up a whole new area of science. I have not heard your thoughts but, even if you are telepathic, that would not be surprising because of the distance between us. I would be keen to meet you face to face to see if I could hear your thoughts over short distances, even though I cannot hear them over large ones.

If we did meet then you may suddenly say "Oh I can hear you now" to cover up your previous indications that you could not hear me as "lack of awareness". My premise is that you as well as everyone else can hear me and have always been able to hear me and are just lying.

You are mistaken.

will you endeavour to stick to your word and meet up later so that I can prove myself to be correct that you can and will be able to hear me when we (if you agree) meet up and do a telepathy test which will prove one of us to be correct.

For the third time: I would be happy to assist you to run any reasonable test protocol under the supervision of a group such as one of the "skeptics in the pub" groups.

 

[golfy]

Hi Pixel42,

Thanks for your reply - I still believe you can hear me from here, Cambridgeshire, to youe abode in Wiltshire (or any distance) and that you are part of the cover up and that so can everyone else. That is my belief whether people call me paranoid or worse, but I am sticking to it as I want to prove myself to be correct and validate my judgement.

I understand your statement but my statement as above stands as my opinion and I assume you will stand by yours as you have always done and always stated you will do so no need to reply as I get what you are saying. I just wanted my understanding of my assesment of the situation on record. Hopefully it will an interesting meeting.

golfy

 

[jsfisher]

Hi Pixel42,

Yes I fully understand what you are saying, but I am not certain that is it correct and would like a third opinion (not you Sledge, I said opinion, not fantasy land guess).

Already done:

golfy,
The accuracy of the polygraph is not what's being tested. It is your telepathic ability. You need to demonstrate a result that would have a very low probability of being by chance, which would be 50:50 for each trial.

Use any instruments you like to help you come up with the correct result each trial, but it is still that 50:50 thing you are competing against.

 

[Sean84]

<snip>
My premise is that you as well as everyone else can hear me and have always been able to hear me and are just lying.
<more snip>
golfy

And, again, what would it take for you to conclude that this premise is false?

You are not accounting for that possibility in your "testing" at all.

 

[golfy]

And, again, what would it take for you to conclude that this premise is false?

Falsifiability Sean84.

golfy