Assistance required for telepathy proof

[SumDood]

So, two simple questions:

1) What makes you think the JREF will accept your cat/ship/blinkylights test?

2) How are going to come up with a complete application?

And a third (somewhat irrelevant) question:
Do you have an alternate download link for the test with your doctor?

And again, since everyone you have every tried this on has lied to you, what makes you think the JREF is going to be honest?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

This thread may be trying to run before it can walk.

Maybe we could start by devising a test so golfy can prove to himself he's psychic (or not)

Yeah, I know he's absolutely convinced that he is, but he lacks rigorous proof. So how about a simple test that doesn't involve any receiver potentially lying to golfy:


Find yourself a nice spot like a park bench where you can sit and watch people passing by a litter bin. Choose one that's not so close by that they would be aware of your watching.

Now every time someone passes it, you project "there's a £20 note in that bin" to them. Or "there's a kitten..." or "there's a gun...", or whatever you like. (Is that the kind of thought projection you think you can do?)

Time the session and keep score - a tick if they look in the bin, a cross if they don't.
Then for comparison, time and score a second session where you don't project a message.

If you find you get a significant hit rate of people looking in the bin, please let us know. If you don't, please let us know that too.

After that, if you were successful, the obvious next step would be to repeat it with a witness.

If you were unsuccessful, I hope your next step would be to very seriously consider if an illness might be making you believe things which are not real.


<edit to add> There would be a temptation to award yourself a tick if people glanced at the bin, or kinda looked as if they might have looked in that direction. Resist temptation - only give yourself a tick if they go out of their way to look in the bin.

 

[sadhatter]

This thread may be trying to run before it can walk.

Maybe we could start by devising a test so golfy can prove to himself he's psychic (or not)

Yeah, I know he's absolutely convinced that he is, but he lacks rigorous proof. So how about a simple test that doesn't involve any receiver potentially lying to golfy:


Find yourself a nice spot like a park bench where you can sit and watch people passing by a litter bin. Choose one that's not so close by that they would be aware of your watching.

Now every time someone passes it, you project "there's a £20 note in that bin" to them. Or "there's a kitten..." or "there's a gun...", or whatever you like. (Is that the kind of thought projection you think you can do?)

Time the session and keep score - a tick if they look in the bin, a cross if they don't.
Then for comparison, time and score a second session where you don't project a message.

If you find you get a significant hit rate of people looking in the bin, please let us know. If you don't, please let us know that too.

After that, if you were successful, the obvious next step would be to repeat it with a witness.

If you were unsuccessful, I hope your next step would be to very seriously consider if an illness might be making you believe things which are not real.


<edit to add> There would be a temptation to award yourself a tick if people glanced at the bin, or kinda looked as if they might have looked in that direction. Resist temptation - only give yourself a tick if they go out of their way to look in the bin.

I see a fatal flaw in this methodology.

If there is not an additional observer there with him, then he very well may unintentionally make noises, shift around, etc. in anticipation of the person looking at the bin Drawing a small amount of attention to himself, and if he is indeed sitting by the bin, the bin as well.

I would honestly say, a better test would be for him to offer a random stranger something worthwhile ( $5 or the equivalent in local currency.) to guess what he is thinking. He then projects this to the person , and the person has real incentive to not just lie and say they don't know.

Compare to the price of a lie detector, $5 for the same kind of proof seems a tiny amount. Even if he gets 20 people who all "get it" he is still out only $100.

( personally i would offer the person a dollar or so simply for their trouble if they choose to help out. And on the flip side, i would , if someone asked me to randomly, engage in this kind of test. A dollar is a dollar, and the possibility to 5 bucks for a right answer, taking seconds of my time would be a no lose situation. )

 

[sadhatter]

I'd say it's clear it's the latter. Did you listen to his recording? That wasn't acting.

As someone who has done live theater , dinner theater, and been mistaken for

A) A real 70 year old man

B) Actually Scottish

I don't really hold with the fact that it is an impossibility that it is acting. I was threatened to get thrown out of an optimist club ( local old person hang out. ) for " disrupting a performance" that i was part of ( the schtick was that i was an old man in the audience heckling and being a jerk.) and had to get the director to take someone aside and explain that i was a 19 year old actor in costume.

That being said i would lean slightly toward mentally unstable, but i wouldn't bet a finger on it. Either way we are doing nothing productive.

 

[Pixel42]

after the Alpha testing phase has been carried out, an application to the JREF will be put forward once the test has been proven to be working and reliable in the Alpha phase and reliable data has been generated by the 30 RXs that were tested.

Why are you assuming that the reliable data generated by the alpha testing phase, the first reliable data you have ever had, will justify applying to JREF?

What will you conclude about your telepathic ability if it doesn't?

how about a simple test

Someone already suggested an even simpler test: golfy suddenly (mentally) shouting "Look out! Behind you!" to people at random and seeing if they jump and/or look behind them. Have you tried that yet, golfy?

 

[sadhatter]

Well, i am usually the guy to say " No one is going to stop posting. " in a thread, and i will follow my own advice.

The amount of tests that could be done to prove this is huge, all one needs to do is give the volunteer some kind of incentive to not lie ( or as i will refer to later, fail.)

Here is one that is simple to do.

Gather a few people ( even one would work for a preliminary test.), and have them sign some kind of form stating that they agree to a possibility of severe gastric upset for the purposes of the test.

Set them down in front of a selection ( as many as possible, but preferably all looking different, or encoded with numbers, so that there can be no ' she got the pink round one, and i was sending the pink square one, it was close' situations.) of pills ( both placebo.) , and tell them that one is a placebo, but the other is concocted to give them very unpleasant gastric side effects without being permanently harmful. The runs, cramping , bloating, etc. Make it sound really ( no pun intended) crappy.

Now tell this person that you are going to telepathically tell them which pill is harmless and which one would cause the gastric upset.

This person will not want to take the pill that could harm them, and thereby have an incentive to guess correctly. No polygraph needed, and no interpretation needed. Either it is right , or it is wrong. But i have a feeling that i will be seeing nothing more that a few pages of excuses as to why this wouldn't work.

 

[Sean84]

<snip>
This person will not want to take the pill that could harm them, and thereby have an incentive to guess correctly. No polygraph needed, and no interpretation needed. Either it is right , or it is wrong. But i have a feeling that i will be seeing nothing more that a few pages of excuses as to why this wouldn't work.

Who would take any of the pills?

"Hi, I'm a diagnosed paranoid schizophrenic testing my telepathic superpowers. I have a sack of pills, one of them will give you horrible diarrhea but you have my word that the rest won't result in you waking up in a alley covered in vaseline, now pick one and eat it."

No go.

 

[sadhatter]

Who would take any of the pills?

"Hi, I'm a diagnosed paranoid schizophrenic testing my telepathic superpowers. I have a sack of pills, one of them will give you horrible diarrhea but you have my word that the rest won't result in you waking up in a alley covered in vaseline, now pick one and eat it."

No go.

Your not a good salesman are you?

Obviously one is going to do this in a professional setting, and people volunteer for medical experiments constantly. The reason and the mental health status of the person who had the experiment set up , is not going to be something immediately available nor pertinent to the testing. Heck, he personally does not even have to have contact with the pills, any pharmacy technician would be qualified to say " This is a placebo" assuming they have seen the bottle opened. And seeing as it is a regulated profession, they would be held professionally and legally accountable if they did not do this properly. And sadly, 30 minutes of a pharmacy tech's time is not going to break anyone's pocketbook.



So do you have any real criticism, or just another obtuse comment or two? I am game either way, as we can both see that i had no problem dealing with your first one.

 

[golfy]

Why are you assuming that the reliable data generated by the alpha testing phase, the first reliable data you have ever had, will justify applying to JREF?

If I get 30 subjects with 30 sets of two correct predictions - my target for instance – then I would say that was a good enough place to put in an application. Not the initial “sort out the cat ship teething problems” phase, the actual “Now I am going to do a run of tests” and use these results a enough proof to myself that I can in front of a JREF judge show statistically that I am telepathic beyond all doubt.

When would you put in the application, Pixel42?


And yes I have tried shouting in my head to get a reaction from other people and have had observed the expected response. On a stairwell with someone at the bottom, I shouted in my head “Hey, you!” He turned around looking at me, looking surprised. Now you will give me reasons why I have misinterpreted that incident.

I have been aware of my ability for 15 years after all and done a lot of stuff like this and this is why I am certain I am telepathic. Offered money etc, etc Queue derision ad nauseum.

I cannot be bothered with speculation about my experiences any more, you will only come back with more comments, I will reply, more comments, I will reply, more comments blah, blah, blah. I have given some good examples but I am still nowhere close to convincing you . This will not be proven this way and I know it.

I simply want to do objective testing and gain meaningfull results rather than discuss issues which anyone can say “That’s BS because…” I know I will never prove anything to this forum with talk, but numbers speak louder.

golfy

 

[Sean84]

<snip>
So do you have any real criticism, or just another obtuse comment or two? I am game either way, as we can both see that i had no problem dealing with your first one.

A bit overly dramatic, but I'll play...

"Hi, I'm here for the test where I eat a pill based on what a guy tells me telepathically and may or may not wind up with horrible diarrhea depending on how well I can hear his magic thought beams."

Good luck.

 

[Marcus]

And that is my fault how as I paid for it last week? I may still just do the tests with just a GSR (if I get accurate results) as it is more portable and easier to set up.

golfy

I mentioned this earlier in the thread, a GSR is really easy to manipulate, I've done it myself. Whoever is hooked up to it can produce whatever results they want without much trouble. It is one of several components in a polygraph. Try it yourself, since you have one. Take deep slow breaths and think relaxing thoughts and watch not only GSR but also heart rate and blood pressure go down, and of course respiratory rate is one of the measured components. Think about sex with your girlfriend and all these will go up.

 

[nathan]

I would honestly say, a better test would be for him to offer a random stranger something worthwhile ( $5 or the equivalent in local currency.) to guess what he is thinking. He then projects this to the person , and the person has real incentive to not just lie and say they don't know.

Given that golfy doesn't think $10,000 is sufficient incentive for someone not to lie, I doubt he thinks $5 will make someone break the conspiracy he perceives.

 

[Pixel42]

When would you put in the application, Pixel42?

When I had done the sort of testing you're proposing and the result turned out to be significantly better than that expected by chance.

I ask again, why are you already assuming you will get results that good, before you have done any significant reliable testing? What will you conclude about your telepathic ability if you don't?

And yes I have tried shouting in my head to get a reaction from other people and have had observed the expected response. On a stairwell with someone at the bottom, I shouted in my head “Hey, you!” He turned around looking at me, looking surprised. Now you will give me reasons why I have misinterpreted that incident.

I could tell you about confirmation bias and why you would need to do a lot of such tests much more carefully than you did that one before concluding people can hear your thoughts, but it's clearly pointless. Only when you have done the kind of supervised testing where it's impossible to fool yourself will you get results you can't pretend don't prove you're telepathic, and even then you will simply explain them away to yourself as being because your polygraph isn't reliable enough/somebody cheated etc.

 

[skip]

Hey Golfy… it seems to me that this testing thing you’re doing will never be ready, in your mind, until it produces a result that confirms your belief. I may be misreading what you’re saying.
Do you intend to keep modifying your test until you get the right answer every time?

 

[sadhatter]

A bit overly dramatic, but I'll play...

"Hi, I'm here for the test where I eat a pill based on what a guy tells me telepathically and may or may not wind up with horrible diarrhea depending on how well I can hear his magic thought beams."

Good luck.

With all the silly things people pay good money for, and all the things people subject themselves to for money this is where you think the line would be drawn?

Not at cam that uses bat feces, not at pills that contain no ingredient, not at giving some random person money to talk to their dead pet, not at jumping out of a perfectly good airplane, not at being a guinea pig for medications that have side effects such as drooling and increased agitation, not at being a test subject for a substance that makes one trip out, but at a pill that would cause Gi upset, the single most common side effect of any oral medication.

Really? You might want to rethink your line of logic.

 

[sadhatter]

Given that golfy doesn't think $10,000 is sufficient incentive for someone not to lie, I doubt he thinks $5 will make someone break the conspiracy he perceives.

While i also doubt he will accept any protocol, what are the chances that a even half of randomly selected people would be "in on it."?

 

[dlorde]

If I do one test with one person at a 50% probability level and get the correct answer, then that is a 50% chance I am telepathic. If I do the same tests again with another person and get the correct prediction, then that is a 75% chance I am telepathic.

This is dreadfully wrong.

 

[nathan]

While i also doubt he will accept any protocol, what are the chances that a even half of randomly selected people would be "in on it."?

IIUC golfy considers *everybody* to be part of the conspiracy.

 

[sadhatter]

IIUC golfy considers *everybody* to be part of the conspiracy.

Wow.

And the following is not at you per sae, but as a point of discussion.

How would he then know that the lie detector wasn't tampered with? If " everyone" is in on it, surely there has been a few members of " everyone" that have access to the lie detector.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

IIUC golfy considers *everybody* to be part of the conspiracy.

Yeah, well I feel terribly hurt that no-one took the time to tell me about it. I had to read about it here.

Oh, and no-one told my wife either. Was it something we said?