Assistance required for telepathy proof

[BTMO]

Sorry - I didn't read the last 21 pages, as life is short and I need to trim my nose hairs before going to work, so I apologise if I have missed this....

Golfy - have you applied for the MDC challenge formally, or just discussed your claim here?

-sits on the back step swinging legs happily in the early autumn sunshine, waiting for an answer-

 

[Pixel42]

I did another test today, unfortunately the RX answered "Yes" when I asked him if he had the same as me on the first test so it was scrapped. The second test produced an accurate prediction. The third test had no lights on either question.

You do understand that if this (the polygraph giving you no clue as to the correct answer) happens during an actual test, you will still need to take your best guess? If you just guess which card it was at random you will have a 50% chance of getting a hit.

Yeah, I guess I'll get over it, though.

There is a flaw in the test, in that it only gives a positive result if both your telepathy and your lie detector work.

No offence intended, but I hope you appreciate that telepathy vs schizophrenia has a 100% track record of not turning out to be telepathy.

If you get a negative result, I expect you will simply blame the lie detector, instead of doubting your telepathic powers.

Quite.

Perhaps it's time to spell out all the possible outcomes of this particular test protocol. (Golfy: please don't make the mistake you did last time I did something similar and assume that just because I list something as a possibility I am endorsing that possibility).

Possibility 1: golfy is telepathic and his polygraph is 100% reliable

Golfy gets 20 hits out of 20, passes the test, and proves he's telepathic

Possibility 2: golfy is telepathic and his polygraph is less than 100% reliable

Golfy probably does a bit better than chance but gets nowhere near the required success criteria to rule it out even at the 1 in 100 level and so fails the test

Possibility 3: golfy is telepathic and his polygraph is completely useless

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Possibility 4: golfy is not telepathic and his polygraph is 100% reliable

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Possibility 5: golfy is not telepathic and his polygraph is less than 100% reliable

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Possibility 6: golfy is not telepathic and his polygraph is completely useless

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Golfy: can you now see why those of us who have no confidence in polygraphs think that a test like this is a waste of time? The result is the same whether you're telepathic or not, you fail the test. So when you do fail you can simply tell yourself that it was because the polygraph wasn't reliable rather than because you're not telepathic. You can then spend the next two years finding what you think is a more reliable one then bump this thread again and we're all back where we started.

 

[Pixel42]

What we need is a knowledgeable statistician to shed some light on this as confirmation or to correct the maths. Anyone out there that can help?

I have a degree in Mathematics, though I got it over 30 years ago so I'm a bit rusty. Fortunately someone whose maths is a lot less rusty has done the calculations for us and tabulated the results. I posted the link earlier, here it is again:

http://www.automeasure.com/chance.html

For the test protocol we are discussing there are only two possible answers ('ship' or 'cat') each run, so there is a 50% chance of corrrectly guessing which your volunteer wrote. So you need to find the row in each table with '50%' in the first column.

You will see that in the first table (for 1 in 100 odds) the range given for 20 runs is 4 -16. That means that there is a 1 in 100 chance that, in a test consisting of 20 runs, someone will guess right less than 4 times or more than 16 times.

You will see that in the second table (for 1 in 10000 odds) the range given for 20 runs is 2 -18. That means that there is a 1 in 10000 chance that, in a test consisting of 20 runs, someone will guess right less than 2 times or more than 18 times.

Note that the third table, for 1 in 1,000,000 odds, does not give a value for the 50%/20 run combination. That is because 20 runs is not enough to beat those odds. You'd need to do 30 runs and get at least 28 hits to beat odds of 1 in 1,000,000 of having got that many hits by chance.

 

[Cuddles]

I am only interested in doing objective tests leading to proof

You claim to have known you're telepathic for 15 years, yet you still don't even have the instruction manual for the equipment you think you need to do those objective tests. Doesn't sound like you can really be very interested in them at all.

 

[anduin]

If anduin would like to provide contact details at a later date by some means acceptable to himself as I will obviously visit this forum again once I have proven my ability, so that I will have the opportunity to prove that you are just as pathetic as you have described my ability. I believe you are a liar and a charlatan.

Once again you dodge the question at the very heart of my post. Even if you had this ability (which most of us find extremely unlikely given your history of mental health problems), what would it be good for? Can't you see that for all purposes, this ability is the same as if it did not exist? In other words, what good is an ability that allows you to send words and messages to people's minds, but that nobody in the world will acknowledge this ability? The end result is that your ability, even if it exists, is indistinguishable from it not existing at all.

Please think seriously about this point, I believe that if you see its relevance you will perhaps begin the road towards recovery. In other words, what would be the practical application of your ability given that nobody but you is willing to accept its existence?

 

[anduin]

I did another test today, unfortunately the RX answered "Yes" when I asked him if he had the same as me on the first test so it was scrapped. The second test produced an accurate prediction. The third test had no lights on either question.

In other words, in a 50% test you came 2 against and one in favour, as would be expected by chance. Do you see that you may have a problem?

 

[Hitch]

You do understand that if this (the polygraph giving you no clue as to the correct answer) happens during an actual test, you will still need to take your best guess? If you just guess which card it was at random you will have a 50% chance of getting a hit.


Quite.

Perhaps it's time to spell out all the possible outcomes of this particular test protocol. (Golfy: please don't make the mistake you did last time I did something similar and assume that just because I list something as a possibility I am endorsing that possibility).

Possibility 1: golfy is telepathic and his polygraph is 100% reliable

Golfy gets 20 hits out of 20, passes the test, and proves he's telepathic

Possibility 2: golfy is telepathic and his polygraph is less than 100% reliable

Golfy probably does a bit better than chance but gets nowhere near the required success criteria to rule it out even at the 1 in 100 level and so fails the test

Possibility 3: golfy is telepathic and his polygraph is completely useless

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Possibility 4: golfy is not telepathic and his polygraph is 100% reliable

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Possibility 5: golfy is not telepathic and his polygraph is less than 100% reliable

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Possibility 6: golfy is not telepathic and his polygraph is completely useless

Golfy probably achieves the most likely chance result, i.e. between 8 and 12 hits, and fails the test

Golfy: can you now see why those of us who have no confidence in polygraphs think that a test like this is a waste of time? The result is the same whether you're telepathic or not, you fail the test. So when you do fail you can simply tell yourself that it was because the polygraph wasn't reliable rather than because you're not telepathic. You can then spend the next two years finding what you think is a more reliable one then bump this thread again and we're all back where we started.

There's a seventh possibility: Golfy is not telepathic, but either through collusion with the receiver, or some small utility of the polygraph/GSR device Golfy is able to get slightly above chance results from asking the receiver if they wrote down "cat" or "ship" and therefore thinks he passed the test, but the JREF would never accept such a sloppy protocol reinforcing his belief in a world-wide conspiracy.

 

[sadhatter]

Did you read that Pixel42 and Jack by the hedge?

The test that was agreed on as a workable protocol in post 777 by you, Jack and me is badly thought out. We must me stupid and missed something that Sledge can correct for us.

Perhaps Sledge with his higher intellect can advise us on a better working telepathy test which is lie proof? I doubt it though, it takes little intellectual ability to “You are wrong” and then not be able to explain why.

golfy

Just thought i would remind you protocols are not set by jref forum users. If you want this to go anywhere you need to really apply with a valid protocol, not a rube goldberg machine designed to reinforce your beliefs.

If you really wanted to test, you would be going through the proper channels, not messing about in the forum.

 

[sadhatter]

Is there anyone on this forum who is knowledgeable on statistics and can answer a few questions, or does anyone know of anyone who can join the group and help a little with the working out of probabilities etc?

To Stray Cat.

If I do one test with one person at a 50% probability level and get the correct answer, then that is a 50% chance I am telepathic. If I do the same tests again with another person and get the correct prediction, then that is a 75% chance I am telepathic. If I got the correct answer with 5 people with 1 test each, then that is a 1 in 32 possibility of it happening by chance, around 97% certainty that it is not by chance as the tests are cumulative, not just 50:50 because it was one test. It adds to the Doctors correct prediction to become 75% certainty that my results are correct if a GSR test is only gauged at 50:50 which it is not, nut 50:50 is fine for the time being.

If I did 20 tests with 20 people (one each) that to get all predictions correct I think that would be around a 1 in a million chance if each test is gauged at 50:50, more if the GSR accuracy is dialled in as greater than 50% accuracy.

What we need is a knowledgeable statistician to shed some light on this as confirmation or to correct the maths. Anyone out there that can help?

Perhaps Pixel42 knows one of the sceptic guys that may want to participate.

I am sure that the intellectual colossus that is Sledge could do it for us, but his own modesty would prevent him from doing so.

golfy

PS Sledge - do you think that a poly is better than 50% accuarate as a lie detector?

there are plenty of people who have done that ad nauseum, but you keep rejecting them...for 2+ years.

 

[Stray Cat]

To Stray Cat.

If I do one test with one person at a 50% probability level and get the correct answer, then that is a 50% chance I am telepathic. If I do the same tests again with another person and get the correct prediction, then that is a 75% chance I am telepathic. If I got the correct answer with 5 people with 1 test each, then that is a 1 in 32 possibility of it happening by chance, around 97% certainty that it is not by chance as the tests are cumulative, not just 50:50 because it was one test. It adds to the Doctors correct prediction to become 75% certainty that my results are correct if a GSR test is only gauged at 50:50 which it is not, nut 50:50 is fine for the time being.

If I did 20 tests with 20 people (one each) that to get all predictions correct I think that would be around a 1 in a million chance if each test is gauged at 50:50, more if the GSR accuracy is dialled in as greater than 50% accuracy.

What you seem to be missing here is that you're not getting 100%, 75% or even 50% correct. In your last test you got:
One scrapped
One right
One wrong

That's 33% correct.

In a real test, these incorrect answers are going to effect your overall percentages. At present you seem to be simply ignoring them or making excuses for them and not counting them in your results (confirmation bias in action).

 

[sadhatter]

Anyone think we should just vacate this thread? We are either being taken for a ride, or indulging someone who is mentally ill.

If he has powers, i am sure he will be able to set up a protocol with the people in charge. Us desperately trying to get some sense out of him is doing neither us nor him any good.

 

[Stray Cat]

If he has powers, i am sure he will be able to set up a protocol with the people in charge. Us desperately trying to get some sense out of him is doing neither us nor him any good.

This is what always baffles me, Golfy insists he is telepathic.

I insist that I can jump up in the air and land on the ground.
I manage to do it with 100% accuracy everytime.

Of course I can also fly and everyone in the whole world can see me fly, but the whole population of the planet are all liars and will always claim they can not see me flying so it'll take a while to develop a test to prove that bit.

 

[Sledge]

Which comes back to a point I still don't understand: if we're all such liars that we'll deny golfy transmitting his thoughts to us, why would we not deny what the polygraph says?

 

[AdMan]

Anyone think we should just vacate this thread? We are either being taken for a ride, or indulging someone who is mentally ill.

I'd say it's clear it's the latter. Did you listen to his recording? That wasn't acting.

 

[John Jones]

...You simply diagnosed me as schizophrenic with little knowledge or information of anything, let alone an intricate knowledge of metal illnesses diagnosis procedure.

I diagnosed nobody. I simply took your claims of being diagnosed schizophrenic by 9 professionals at face value.

Your behavior here is not inconsistent with schizophenic behavior I have winessed, so taking you at your word about their diagnoses doesn't appear imprudent.

 

[Sledge]

Interesting how that works.

golfy: I'm telepathic.
Everyone else: No, you're not, but we're willing to kick the idea around to find a way to test it.
golfy: How dare you not believe what I'm saying!

golfy: Nine doctors diagnosed me as schizophrenic.
Everyone else: Oh, that makes sense.
golfy: How dare you believe what I'm saying!

I think there's a word for this sort of behaviour...

 

[golfy]

The test results are not valid at the moment (statistically) as I am (as an ex Hewlett-Packard R+D Design Engineer) trying to perfect the cat ship test so that when I start the run of 30 tests to gain accurate rusults, all the teething problems have been ironed out.

Evidently some of you are jumping to conclusions already based on such a small sample.

I do not need to explain my conclusions to critics and knee jerk reaction inept thinkers like Stray Cat who obviously does no remember the relevant elements of some of these posts.

For example

Pixel42 posted this

You will see that in the second table (for 1 in 10000 odds) the range given for 20 runs is 2 -18. That means that there is a 1 in 10000 chance that, in a test consisting of 20 runs, someone will guess right less than 2 times or more than 18 times.

But yet Stray Cat has already concluded that I am not telepathic or that the tests are not working already.

I can see the problems myself, thanks, I am not stupid and think that as the guy who did the last tests had dry hands, the GSR did not function as well as it did with the Doctor (sticky, moist hands) or the verbally tested guy who had normal moist hands.

I will buy some conductive gel and then try again on the same RX as last time and see if the GSR gives better results when the gel is applied.

I am in the alpha testing phase is you know anything about development.

If the project or product is developed for multiple customers acceptance testing (multiple cat ship testing on multiple RXs ) then it will be conducted in two phases called Alpha and Beta testing.

Alpha: Acceptance testing conducted by golfy and the customer (RX) in the developed environment. This is what I am doing now.

This testing will be conducted to identify all the potential issues before releasing it (product/project/cat ship test) to the customers. i.e. Perfecting the cat ship test.

Once that has been done this is now where the 30 or so RX volunteers will be tested in a row to gain meaningfull statistical evidence from a working test protocol.

Beta: Acceptance testing conducted by the multiple customers in the customer environment.

This would be the JREF test and others after the Alpha testing phase has been carried out, an application to the JREF will be put forward once the test has been proven to be working and reliable in the Alpha phase and reliable data has been generated by the 30 RXs that were tested.

If you guys do not know how to do thing correctly, then do not make inane, unsubstantiated, uneducated comments. If you do I will just ignore them and continue with my tests in the correct way untill I have the $1M in my bank account.

golfy

 

[Stray Cat]

The test results are not valid at the moment (statistically) as I am (as an ex Hewlett-Packard R+D Design Engineer) trying to perfect the cat ship test so that when I start the run of 30 tests to gain accurate rusults, all the teething problems have been ironed out.

Evidently some of you are jumping to conclusions already based on such a small sample.

Not at all, just pointing out that you keep talking about percentages that you have a long way to go to achieve. The only conclusion I have reached is that you haven't even reached 'chance' percentages yet.

I do not need to explain my conclusions to critics and knee jerk reaction inept thinkers like Stray Cat who obviously does no remember the relevant elements of some of these posts.

I remember everything I read golfy. I remember you telling some stories about phone calls for doctors appointments (confirmation bias loaded), stories about you transmitting your thoughts to the doctor and other people who apparently responded in some subtle way. I'm guessing that you've tried this an awful lot over the years and you've had more failures than successes but again confirmation bias will let the 'misses' slip and you'll be only too eager to tell of the 'hits'

But yet Stray Cat has already concluded that I am not telepathic or that the tests are not working already.

In light of the results reported so far, one of those things is correct.
It's not a conclusion though, as it could still go either way couldn't it?

I can see the problems myself, thanks, I am not stupid and think that as the guy who did the last tests had dry hands, the GSR did not function as well as it did with the Doctor (sticky, moist hands) or the verbally tested guy who had normal moist hands.

Did I mention that you'd already have your excuses lined up?
But anyway, it's good that you are developing and adapting your test.
Most people don't bother to try it at home first.

I will buy some conductive gel and then try again on the same RX as last time and see if the GSR gives better results when the gel is applied.

Most lie detectors require the subject to be asked a series of ;control' questions first. Are you doing that?
In order to see what readings you should expect, ask the RX some questions that you both know the answer to and ask them to answer honestly. Then ask the same questions but ask them to lie and see what information the machine picks up on.

If you guys do not know how to do thing correctly, then do not make inane, unsubstantiated, uneducated comments. If you do I will just ignore them and continue with my tests anyway.

Says the guy who hasn't got the instruction book yet.

 

[golfy]

Says the guy who hasn't got the instruction book yet.

And that is my fault how as I paid for it last week? I may still just do the tests with just a GSR (if I get accurate results) as it is more portable and easier to set up.

golfy

 

[Sean84]

<big snip>
If you guys do not know how to do thing correctly, then do not make inane, unsubstantiated, uneducated comments. If you do I will just ignore them and continue with my tests in the correct way untill I have the $1M in my bank account.

golfy

The cart goes behind the horse, amigo.

What makes you think the JREF will accept your cat/ship/blinkylights test? The last official word was that there will be no lie detectors. You said Randi told you to stop e-mailing him until you fill out an application. So, question 2:

How are you going to apply?

Seriously. How are you going to apply without affidavits stating that you're not crazy but rather the magical man from telepathy land?

Your doctors won't sign them because they believe you're delusional. In your mind, this is because of some conspiracy. How will you overcome that?

Can you get a media presence or are all the local reporters in on it?

I still haven't been able to download the test with your doctor but according to the people who have it sounds like if you sent a video of yourself doing your test with someone in lieu of the other options it would only do more harm than good.

So, two simple questions:

1) What makes you think the JREF will accept your cat/ship/blinkylights test?

2) How are going to come up with a complete application?

And a third (somewhat irrelevant) question:
Do you have an alternate download link for the test with your doctor?