Assistance required for telepathy proof

[golfy]

So if I toss a coin twice, predicting heads both time, and it does actually happen to come down heads both times, that means there's a 75% certainty that I can see into the future?

Stop being childish Pixel42 - keep above the others or you will become like them. It means that you can predict with a certain accuracy that the coins will land on heads twice, not that you are precognitive.

With such a small sample, it can also be shown that it can happen by chance as well so would not be very relevant – i.e. 25% certainty that you cannot do as you claim. Getting 20 correct would show that you with high certainty correctly predicted the coin toss accurately or that you have a trick coin or that you are manipulating the test etc.

I will be aiming for a significant number of tests so that chance is reduced to virtually zero.

golfy

 

[kalen]

Say "cat ship" ten times in a row as fast as you can.

 

[golfy]

No,

golfy

 

[Pixel42]

It means that you can predict with a certain accuracy that the coins will land on heads twice, not that you are precognitive.

If I can predict what the coin will do with any accuracy it means that I am precognitive. That's the definition of the word: being able to predict events that there is no non-paranormal means of predicting. But there's always a chance of simply randomly guessing correctly even if I'm not precognitive, and the smaller the number of runs the higher that chance is.

With such a small sample, it can also be shown that it can happen by chance

Exactly! At last! Thank you!

Two trials mean nothing whatever. They don't allow you to say anything whatsoever about accuracy. You need lots of trials to produce results that are statistically significant, and only then can you start calculating accuracy.

I will be aiming for a significant number of tests so that chance is reduced to virtually zero.

If you do 20 trials there is a 1 in 100 chance of getting at least 16 correct, and a 1 in 10,000 chance of getting at least 18 correct. For the chances of guessing correctly with other numbers of trials see the table I posted earlier.

 

[golfy]

If I can predict what the coin will do with any accuracy it means that I am precognitive.

According to the JREF it would have to be at a greater than 10000 to 1 level, 4 to 1 does not constitute precognition.

golfy

 

[John Jones]

I fully understand “Burden of Proof”, which is why I am not getting dragged into arguments, but carrying out actual tests. You have a "Burden of Proof" if you claim I am schizophrenic - ...

It seems to me that you have already supplied presumptive evidence of that. Either 9 mental health professionals diagnosed you as schizophrenic, or you were less that factual with us.

Good luck in any case.

 

[golfy]

Either 9 mental health professionals diagnosed you as schizophrenic, or you were less that factual with us.

Not sure what you are getting at - Yes 9 psychiatrists did diagnose me with schizophrenia based on what I told them verbally. Their "telepathy does not even exist" stance did not allow them to do anything but incorrectly diagnose me if I am indeed telepathic.

Out of interest why did no one ever (which I have been waiting for you to do so) ask me if I was prescribed medication. It is a way of “objectifying” a diagnosis. If the medicine works and the symptoms of illness disappear when prescribed medicine is taken, then the diagnosis can be viewed as correct. A mental health professional (which clearly you guys are not) would have asked me if I had been prescribed any drugs and if they worked or not.

You simply diagnosed me as schizophrenic with little knowledge or information of anything, let alone an intricate knowledge of metal illnesses diagnosis procedure. Your diagnoses could be viewed as wreckless and dangerous if forced upon a weak minded individual who is on a forum and who knows no better. I get the impression from some of you that you are simply calling me mentally ill to bully me into submission to remove my belief that I am telepathic for “sport”. Of course I am far more confident and secure about my mental ability to reason, observe accurately and then put my conclusions forward for objective testing, than it would take a few lame ducks to even put a dent in. On a less confident person you could have caused real damage. To me, no.

FYI amateur (no knowledge or education) shrinks of inept ability - I have been prescribed antipsychotics many times over the last 15 years, non of which have ever made any difference to my perception that I am telepathic. If I were schizophrenic, surely 9 psychiatrists would have solved my problem by now.

golfy

PS Happy now Sledge?

 

[Sledge]

Sledge,

I am not going to be dragged into a pointless opinionated subjective argument - objective proof is all that matters.

I will be concentrating on gaining actual results, after all that is the key to proof. Having an argument that neither of us can win is just wasting my time.

golfy

Who's arguing? I've asked you a simple question. Your inability to answer it is reflecting poorly upon you. So no, I'm not happy. You haven't answered the question.

Let me answer it for you: you believe it is more likely that you have a power no other human has ever been able to prove than that you are mentally ill because you are mentally ill. You cannot project your thoughts into other people's minds. That the only way for your claim to stand up is for the whole world to be in a conspiracy against you is a fair indication of your illness. That nine doctors have diagnosed you with it is another one of those small hints. And frankly, your attitude is a dead giveaway. Stop wasting your life with pointless and badly thought out tests. Go back to a doctor and get help.

 

[golfy]

pointless and badly thought out tests.

Did you read that Pixel42 and Jack by the hedge?

The test that was agreed on as a workable protocol in post 777 by you, Jack and me is badly thought out. We must me stupid and missed something that Sledge can correct for us.

Perhaps Sledge with his higher intellect can advise us on a better working telepathy test which is lie proof? I doubt it though, it takes little intellectual ability to “You are wrong” and then not be able to explain why.

golfy

 

[Stray Cat]

I fully understand “Burden of Proof”,

Evidently not, looking objectively at your post that I quoted previously.

which is why I am not getting dragged into arguments, but carrying out actual tests.

Everyone lies... Therefore I don't believe you.

You have a "Burden of Proof" if you claim I am schizophrenic -

This issue isn't about whether you are schizophrenic... It's about if you are telepathic... That is your claim, that's for you to prove.

if you can't do that then stop writing unsubstantiated inane comments as you are not experienced, expert mental health practitioners, just sceptics on a forum.

I haven't written any unsubstantiated inane comments.

Anyone can be a sceptic as the burden of proof is not on them if I claim to be telepathic. I don’t see any of you getting closer and closer to winning the $1M. Maybe that’s the reason that you try so hard to talk me out of doing it myself, you can’t do it yourself and would hate to see someone else achieve it.

No one is trying to talk you out of it. From what I've read here, nearly everyone is encouraging you to develop a sound protocol so you can forge ahead with it.

I did another test today, unfortunately the RX answered "Yes" when I asked him if he had the same as me on the first test so it was scrapped. The second test produced an accurate prediction. The third test had no lights on either question.

So still at 50% then... You're telepathic, this should be a walk in the park for you.

I’ll try again on someone else when I have the time as I am working at the moment achieving something.

I'm genuinely happy that you are achieving something (if not proving your telepathic ability).

 

[Sean84]

I have an Axciton polygraph. I am awaiting the arrival of the training video, presumably it will arrive this week as it has been posted by express post from Texas, USA last week. Similar to the link below.

http://www.axciton.com/images/sensorbox-package-s.JPG

Follow up question:
http://www.axciton.com/picturegallery.htm

WTF?

Sarcasm and assessment are both subjective so can be agued equally on both camps. I fully understand this. You guys are not coming up with anything new, just the same old arguments that everyone else has done.

Like I stated before That is why I am in the process of constructing a objective telepathy test which produces results that cannot be argued with and not interested in subjective assessment which people can disagree with.

So when are you going to get around to that?

Then paranoia equals no telepathy – then take a cat ship test with me and prove me wrong and beat me.

But I've already said that I think your cat/ship/blinkylights test is nonsense designed not to test your ability but to allow you to interpret the results however you like after the fact.

Which, of course, you will, as evidenced by the fact that you have already done so.

I have offered 10% of the money before to anyone who can repeat what I am thinking but no one comes forward to claim the cash. Which is proof that I am not telepathic of course (he wrote sarcastically).

golfy

So, people hate free money, right?

Er, it's the conspiracy again, isn't it?

Would you care to elaborate on how such a vast and organized conspiracy can take place when most people probably don't really care whether or not you're telepathic, crazy, or something in between?

 

[Sledge]

Did you read that Pixel42 and Jack by the hedge?

The test that was agreed on as a workable protocol in post 777 by you, Jack and me is badly thought out. We must me stupid and missed something that Sledge can correct for us.

Perhaps Sledge with his higher intellect can advise us on a better working telepathy test which is lie proof? I doubt it though, it takes little intellectual ability to “You are wrong” and then not be able to explain why.

golfy

golfy, in his rush to prove his mind works perfectly, demonstrates its fallibility by forgeting that I have already pointed out problems with his chosen protocol. Were he to bother actually reading what people post, he would find the following problems with using a polygraph in his protocol:

• If we're all in a conspiracy to mess with him, we could all just deny what the machine is saying
• He needs information from someone else to tell him how the machine works. That person is lying
• The machine can be rigged in advance to give incorrect results
• And of course, polygraphs don't work as lie detectors

I wonder if he'll read the list this time and respond to it? I also wonder if he'll stop drop the bizarre approach of responding to me by talking to other people. Ah, the mysteries the future holds.

 

[Skepdan]

According to the Axciton website, that "Sensor Box" costs $7,245 for overseas buyers.

Golfy, if you can afford to buy that and a new laptop, then clearly you're something doing right. I'd suggest you devote your energies to whatever it is you do for a living that allows you to spend that much on unproven technology.

 

[golfy]

Is there anyone on this forum who is knowledgeable on statistics and can answer a few questions, or does anyone know of anyone who can join the group and help a little with the working out of probabilities etc?

To Stray Cat.

If I do one test with one person at a 50% probability level and get the correct answer, then that is a 50% chance I am telepathic. If I do the same tests again with another person and get the correct prediction, then that is a 75% chance I am telepathic. If I got the correct answer with 5 people with 1 test each, then that is a 1 in 32 possibility of it happening by chance, around 97% certainty that it is not by chance as the tests are cumulative, not just 50:50 because it was one test. It adds to the Doctors correct prediction to become 75% certainty that my results are correct if a GSR test is only gauged at 50:50 which it is not, nut 50:50 is fine for the time being.

If I did 20 tests with 20 people (one each) that to get all predictions correct I think that would be around a 1 in a million chance if each test is gauged at 50:50, more if the GSR accuracy is dialled in as greater than 50% accuracy.

What we need is a knowledgeable statistician to shed some light on this as confirmation or to correct the maths. Anyone out there that can help?

Perhaps Pixel42 knows one of the sceptic guys that may want to participate.

I am sure that the intellectual colossus that is Sledge could do it for us, but his own modesty would prevent him from doing so.

golfy

PS Sledge - do you think that a poly is better than 50% accuarate as a lie detector?

 

[golfy]

To Skepdan,

Investing some money (my poly was less than that as it was second hand, hence it did not come with the training CD which I have just ordered) to win $1M is a good gamble. If I win the money or not then I can get a similar price for the poly that I paid.

golfy

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Did you read that Pixel42 and Jack by the hedge?

The test that was agreed on as a workable protocol in post 777 by you, Jack and me is badly thought out. We must me stupid and missed something that Sledge can correct for us.

Yeah, I guess I'll get over it, though.

There is a flaw in the test, in that it only gives a positive result if both your telepathy and your lie detector work.

No offence intended, but I hope you appreciate that telepathy vs schizophrenia has a 100% track record of not turning out to be telepathy.

If you get a negative result, I expect you will simply blame the lie detector, instead of doubting your telepathic powers.

 

[Sledge]

Given your passive-aggressive insults and refusal to answer my questions, why should I answer yours, golfy? Especially when I've already told you exactly what I think about polygraphs.

 

[Akhenaten]

From the Axciton Website (manufacturers of golfy's polygraph):

What is a polygraph?

Polygraph is the field of forensic science that is able to identify truthful or deceptive answers to questions, by observing a subjects cardio, sweat glands, and breathing reactions when carefully designed questions are asked by a trained polygraph examiner to a tested subject. A polygraph exam is often called a lie detection exam, and takes about one to two hours to be done properly with high accuracy.

A trained examiner can carefully design questions that manipulate a subject’s autonomic fear response to questions on the central issue to be tested for, and other emotional reference points. For accuracy, this process is repeated numerous times and the different questions stress-fear value for each category are combined and compared with each other category to determine the deception or truthfulness of a subject to the test issue. The process of ‘reading’ a polygraph chart is a well defined science, but requires formal training from a polygraph school.


In summary, the polygraph exam has 3 separate phases:

• The Pre-exam: where the Axciton polygraph examiner discusses the test issues with the subject to best determine how to phrase the questions.
  
  
• The exam itself: Where the Axciton polygraph chart records a subjects autonomic reactions to the questions asked.
  
  
• The Post exam: Where the Examiner discusses the results of the Axciton polygraph exam with the subject.

my bolding


Compare to:

I did another test today, unfortunately the RX answered "Yes" when I asked him if he had the same as me on the first test so it was scrapped. The second test produced an accurate prediction. The third test had no lights on either question.

One of these things is not like the other thing.

 

[Drs_Res]

I actually had a REAL polygraph test a long time ago (about 1990 IIRC). What golfy describes doing is nowhere near a real polygraph, not even close.

 

[Akhenaten]

I actually had a REAL polygraph test a long time ago (about 1990 IIRC). What golfy describes doing is nowhere near a real polygraph, not even close.

Yes He seems to have some kind of cartoony image of plugging people into the thing and having a truth/lie type answer pop up on the screen whenever he asks them a question.

The way he keeps using GSR and "poly" interchangeably doesn't bode well either.