Ahmadinejad on the way out?

[Oliver]

I did read about Police cracking down on riots about the election outcome ... Mhmm, can't find the source of that report... :"/

Got it:

updated 30 minutes ago
CNN International: Iran election protests turn violent

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is declared the big winner in the country's election, but the announcement has brought thousands of people onto the streets where they have encountered a strong police presence and the threat of violence. full story

• Riot police tackle election protesters
• Time: Protesters dismiss Ahmadinejad win

 

[dudalb]

How's that theory working out in Burma?

Capel seems very fond of theories that do not take reality into account, but look damn good on paper, like his idea of dividing Pakistan between Afghanistan and India. That sort of convinced me not to take him too seriously.

 

[dudalb]

When was the US public first convinced that Iran was a threat to them?

The Hostage crisis.

 

[FireGarden]

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/2009613121740611636.html

Ahmadinejad had apparently taken the northwestern city of Tabriz with some ease.

Tabriz is the heart of East Azerbaijan, and Azeris are among the tightest ethnic groups in the country, unfailingly voting along ethnic lines.

In the 2005 presidential election, Mohsen Mehralizadeh was a largely unknown and wholly unsuccessful candidate. He came in seventh and last, and yet he still won the Azeri vote in the Azerbaijani provinces. Mir Hossein Mousavi is an Azeri from Tabriz.

What suddenly changed such voting habits? Ahmadinejad got 57% in Tabriz according to this arcticle:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/200961391719990152.html

 

[dudalb]

Shi'a used to be a progressive movement, 1,000 years ago. But like all movements, it has calcified with time.

Iran's urban population is cosmopolitan which makes them ripe for revolution, but Iran is overwhelmingly rural and less educated. They are naturally conservative, and even their children who get educated in cities return to their rural roots when they return home (whic most do).

If the Iranian intelligentsia is going to have a revolution, it won't be a Democratic one, at least not until the rest of Iran has an economic awakening, which is at least 20-30 years in the making. Otherwise, they'll have to have a revolution the way the Mullahs did -- through armed insurrection. And I don't think these Revolutionaries are inclined towards violent revolution.

So I don't envision any major political change in Iran for at least a generation.

Every few years we hear how the Iranian moderates are going to take over, and every few years nothing happens.
I am now convinced the optimism about The Moderates winning was a sort of mass delusion by the Western Media. CNN was practically saying Masouvi had it in the bag.

 

[Tin Foil Timothy]

Oh well. Bush also got two terms. <sigh>

 

[JihadJane]

When was the US public first convinced that Iran was a threat to them?

Back then shortly after Ahmadinejad suggessted to his fellow students that it might not be a good idea for them to capture every American Citizen within the US-embassy in Tehran. Ironically.

The Hostage crisis.

Thanks.

 

[geni]

Every few years we hear how the Iranian moderates are going to take over, and every few years nothing happens.
I am now convinced the optimism about The Moderates winning was a sort of mass delusion by the Western Media. CNN was practically saying Masouvi had it in the bag.

They've won in the past. I suspect the miscalculation this time around was that it was assumed that large scale vote rigging was limited to banning candidates.

 

[Marc39]

When was the US public first convinced that Iran was a threat to them?

The US public, at least, normal members of the public, are now convinced Iran is a threat, and, justifiably so.

 

[Thunder]

The US public, at least, normal members of the public, are now convinced Iran is a threat, and, justifiably so.

The only Americans who believe that Iran is a threat to the USA are the victims of Neo-Conservative and Neo-Zionist propaganda.

I seek peaceful relations with Iran and its people. Others, seek their destruction and demise.

 

[Marc39]

The only Americans who believe that Iran is a threat to the USA are the victims of Neo-Conservative and Neo-Zionist propaganda.

Such Americans likely have been doing proper due diligence regarding expert assessments of Iran's significant global threat. The greatest fear of Iran, perhaps, is among its regional neighbors in the Middle East.

 

[CapelDodger]

How's that theory working out in Burma?

It's too soon to tell .

The Burmese Army makes no bones about being an occupying force. They're more or less clients of China. What we have in Burma is an imperial arrangement.

 

[CapelDodger]

Capel seems very fond of theories that do not take reality into account, but look damn good on paper, like his idea of dividing Pakistan between Afghanistan and India.

Don't knock it till you've tried it.

That sort of convinced me not to take him too seriously.

I get a lot of that, just for thinking outside the box. If nothing else it does illuminate the box. And look where thinking inside that box has got us.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Two recent headlines:

Election battles turn into street fights in Iran

and

US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

And check out some of the photos of the unrest - wow!

Could we be seeing the beginning of a revolution in Iran?

 

[CapelDodger]

Two recent headlines:

Election battles turn into street fights in Iran

and

US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

And check out some of the photos of the unrest - wow!

Could we be seeing the beginning of a revolution in Iran?

We could. Which, of course, is not to say that we are. But when it does start it will probably look something like this.

Ahmedinejad's winning margin looks far too good to be true. Even some of his voters are going to think that.

What we have to look out for is signs of organisation behind the protests. The Iranian government locked-up a lot of students ten or twelve years ago, and many's the revolution that has been hatched in prison.

Organised strikes in critical industries should be high on the agenda, according to established revolutionary theory. But these guys might be thinking outside the box .

 

[CapelDodger]

What suddenly changed such voting habits? Ahmadinejad got 57% in Tabriz according to this arcticle:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/200961391719990152.html

It lacks credibility, doesn't it? Even if it's true.

More and more such anomalies will likely emerge as detailed results come in. Solidly middle-class districts going for Ahmedinejad, over 100% turnouts in some districts, the usual stuff (true or not it's very credible).

I think the powers-that-be have over-reached themselves because they're not terribly clever.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Organised strikes in critical industries should be high on the agenda, according to established revolutionary theory. But these guys might be thinking outside the box .

Well, getting plenty of international press on the first day is a good way to start. From what I understand, the Iranian state security agency is also having fits keeping the Iranian people from blabbing about this - they're working hard to shut down mobile phone networks and popular websites like Facebook. I can only see this backfiring on Ahmadinejad.

 

[CapelDodger]

If the Iranian intelligentsia is going to have a revolution, it won't be a Democratic one, at least not until the rest of Iran has an economic awakening, which is at least 20-30 years in the making. Otherwise, they'll have to have a revolution the way the Mullahs did -- through armed insurrection. And I don't think these Revolutionaries are inclined towards violent revolution.

The Iranian Revolution wasn't an armed insurrection. It started on the streets and escalated out of the Shah's government's control. The army refused to move, the police melted away, the Shah ran away (he had a habit of that), and the whole rotten structure collapsed.

With that in mind ... how do the beneficiaries of that revolution feel today? Uncomfortable, I imagine.

 

[CapelDodger]

Well, getting plenty of international press on the first day is a good way to start. From what I understand, the Iranian state security agency is also having fits keeping the Iranian people from blabbing about this - they're working hard to shut down mobile phone networks and popular websites like Facebook. I can only see this backfiring on Ahmadinejad.

Perhaps not tomorrow, perhaps not this year, but eventually. It shows signs of panic - which is never good.

Lets not forget that the election was not the big problem. The economy is tanking because the country is so mismanaged, and it really is the economy, stupid . The powers-that-be have no answer, since they are the management and don't have a clue. Hence the appeal to bogey-man threats that nobody sensible believes in.

The Shah's regime was secure until it screwed-up the economy. It wasn't just the religious that said "no more", it was the economically disaffected.

 

[geni]

Organised strikes in critical industries should be high on the agenda, according to established revolutionary theory. But these guys might be thinking outside the box .

Organised strikes are a tactic normaly used by the urban poor. Ahmadinejad's support amoung that group isn't too bad.