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Split Thread A second impeachment

bruto said:
I would agree on the idea, but wouldn't be surprised if the people actually in office don't. A significant number of people people seem unable to imagine a future that isn't just more of today. No doubt some thoughtful Republicans, looking beyond their own tenure, will figure it out, but they had already likely jumped off the T**** bandwagon. I won't be much surprised if the rest die in the bunker.
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We won't know how many have jumped off the bandwagon until the trial, but I doubt many will die in a bunker for anyone, not even a huge donor, let alone a loser like Trump - who only joined the party in 2016, and led it to a wipe-out in 2020. Some of the new blood might, but they're really of no account. Primary threats work both ways ...

It is, after all, just another version, in parvo, of what is happening with regard to other issues like global warming.
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That's the kind of thing their donors want from the Republican Party, and let's not forget the influence they wield. They want a party which can win and deliver, and a Trump-whipped party really can't, to my mind.
 
BobTheCoward said:
I don't think it is logical to conclude it is incitement without a lot more history of what has constituted incitement and how the question has been addressed philosophically in the past. Maybe you possess that information, but I do not, and I'm not sure how many do.
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The only purpose this impeachment could have, beyond making a statement, is to bar Trump from public office. It's not about what standard would prove incitement in a court of law, it's what standard do you use to start barring former officials from again seeking public office.

"Maybe he incited them, maybe he didn't" is not going to cut it in a court of law. But if there's any question whether a president was exhorting followers to violently attack the Capitol, IMO he does not get the benefit of the doubt. The fact that it's an open question makes him unfit for public office.
 
CapelDodger said:
What they can win, politically, is domination of the Republican Party. If they don't have that then the party remains shackled to a corpse, because Trump is a spent force.
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I think if Trump is acquitted, that, though it might take a while to die, the death warrant of the GOP will have been signed.
 
CapelDodger said:
I'll be very surprised if this goes beyond a fund-raising effort.
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I think Trump has a number of motives for this;grifting more money out of his supporters is one but I think his ego demands a party that is 100% devoted to him; just boing along for politcal advantage is no longer enough,not Trump wants only True Beleivers.
 
CapelDodger said:
Another purpose is to not not impeach him, which would infuriate progressive Democrats and a lot of voters.
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The large majority of Biden voters, likely... much as the concern is fairly certainly far more along the lines of Justice, which would likely be the generally preferred option. Impeachment serves a different role, albeit also one of value.
 
bruto said:
I would agree on the idea, but wouldn't be surprised if the people actually in office don't. A significant number of people people seem unable to imagine a future that isn't just more of today. No doubt some thoughtful Republicans, looking beyond their own tenure, will figure it out, but they had already likely jumped off the T**** bandwagon. I won't be much surprised if the rest die in the bunker.

It is, after all, just another version, in parvo, of what is happening with regard to other issues like global warming.
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Yup. If McConnell cannot stop this mpeachment from examining the evidence, he might as well bow to the inevitable and ensure Trump is buried. Anything else is worse for him.

He'd still want as little evidence as possible to be examined.
 
I've said multiple times that Trump did the one thing that neither the old school Democrats nor Republicans can account for, introduced ambiguity.

McConnel's been playing the game for a long time. He probably thought until Trump came along he could always see which way the wind was blowing, which way the sands were shifting, all that.

He can't with Trump. Here's the sad truth. Everything the Republicans are going to do (and if we're being honest a lot of what the Democrats are going to do) depends on how big the overlap is in the Venn diagram of Trump loyalist and GOP loyalist and nobody knows the answer to that.

Right now McConnell (probably) knows that his decision to push the impeachment on Trump (because let's cut to the chase, he's really the person who's going to decide if Trump is convicted or not) risks alienating a huge chunk of either the GOP base or the Trump base if he gets it wrong but without any real trustable numbers he's having to make a guess. That's why he's so scared to make a decision.

If McConnell just had numbers in front of him with even... like 75% certainty that X percent of Y would do Z if he did or didn't back a conviction for Trump in the Senate, we'd have an answer by now.
 
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Craig4 said:
I like that the trial is being moved to next month. This gives more time for stories like the NY Times article about what was going on in the Justice Department to come out. The more we know about the attack, the worse it is for Trump.
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I agree with this. I think the evidence is already overwhelming and shouldn't require the extra time. Still, the time allows the Democrats to plan the trial. Unilike before, in this situation, how this trial pays out is entirely in the Democrats hands. There is no short circuiting the trial and eliminating the evidence.
 
acbytesla said:
I agree with this. I think the evidence is already overwhelming and shouldn't require the extra time. Still, the time allows the Democrats to plan the trial. Unilike before, in this situation, how this trial pays out is entirely in the Democrats hands. There is no short circuiting the trial and eliminating the evidence.
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Which won't mean crap to most of the GOP senators. :mad:
 
CapelDodger said:
We won't know how many have jumped off the bandwagon until the trial, but I doubt many will die in a bunker for anyone, not even a huge donor, let alone a loser like Trump - who only joined the party in 2016, and led it to a wipe-out in 2020. Some of the new blood might, but they're really of no account. Primary threats work both ways ...


That's the kind of thing their donors want from the Republican Party, and let's not forget the influence they wield. They want a party which can win and deliver, and a Trump-whipped party really can't, to my mind.
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You may be right, and I hope you are, but I am not sure how many people can see beyond the next two-year election cycle, and if they think the ragtag mob will get them there, they won't care whether the whole thing crashes and burns a decade later. After all, they don't seem to care what will become of the whole planet after they're dead.

I'm already seeing a drift away from conviction among the Republicans. The revelation of scandals grows daily, but so, it seems, does the list of Republicans who say they don't think an impeachment is seemly now that their hero has slunk off.

Anyway, I really do hope you're right, and will gladly munch on crow if my pessimism is unfounded, but I suspect that too many of the pack are afraid of the loudmouths and bullies whose support they welcomed. If they face an election loss in two years, the ultimate health and relevance of the party will just have to take a back seat.
 
They know the longer they can delay the easier it will be to sell some version of "Well there's no point in doing it now..."
 
JoeMorgue said:
He can't with Trump. Here's the sad truth. Everything the Republicans are going to do (and if we're being honest a lot of what the Democrats are going to do) depends on how big the overlap is in the Venn diagram of Trump loyalist and GOP loyalist and nobody knows the answer to that.
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What McConnell does know is that, with the whole Trump base, the GOP lost the House in 2018 and the Senate this month. A Trump-whipped party cannot expand its vote beyond that base, and it absolutely needs to. If that means losing some EverTrumpers, well, they weren't going to save the day anyway.

What kind of figure will Trump cut in 2022? A very sorry one, in my opinion, and perhaps in McConnell's. Have we even heard anything directly from Trump recently?
 
Stacyhs said:
Which won't mean crap to most of the GOP senators. :mad:
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You might be right. But this is going to be live on TV. It puts them in a difficult situation. If the impeachment is run well Trump is going to look incredibly bad. They can't make speeches. It's not going to last two days. It's likely to last 3 weeks.
 
acbytesla said:
You might be right. But this is going to be live on TV. It puts them in a difficult situation. If the impeachment is run well Trump is going to look incredibly bad. They can't make speeches. It's not going to last two days. It's likely to last 3 weeks.
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He's looked incredibly bad for 5 years.
 
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