My problem with your analogy is that it's clear that if you throw two dice enough times snake eyes eventually will come up. However, it's not clear that life from non-life will ever come into existence from a random process. So, first you need to show that such an event is possible.
Oh, really? Why is it not clear? I guess I'm not quite clear on why you think it's not clear. Why don't you be specific about that.
Why do you say that the 1950s understanding of physics was far from reality? It seems to me that what has happened since that time have been refinements, rather than a revolutionary new approach.
Oh, really? Do you know what renormalization is? Did you know that it was not proven physically justifiable until the 1970s? Do you know what the Weinberg-Salam-Glashow electroweak theory is? Have you ever heard of quarks? Are you familiar with quantum chromodynamics?
None of these things except renormalization were even conceived in 1960, much less 1950- and Feynman and Dirac argued against renormalization until the 1970s. And if you don't know about these things, not only can you not be a physicist today, but you don't even understand what experimental physicists are DOING today. And you don't even want to have nightmares about the theoretical physicists; they're off inventing new branches of mathematics because the mathematicians didn't pay enough attention to what they were doing in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. In both experimental and theoretical physics, the differences between each of those four decades are as stunning as the difference between 1899 and 1901; before the beginning of the twentieth century, physicists thought they had everything all figured out; by the end of the second year of the new century, the foundations of quantum mechanics and relativity had been laid, and nothing would ever be the same.
The progress of technology and science is accelerating; but that doesn't mean it's infinite. But boy oh boy has a hell of a lot of water gone under the bridge since 1995, not to even TALK about 1965 or 1950. That was like, the Stone Age or something.
My point is that there was confidence in the scientific community during the 1950s that things were falling into place nicely for the creation of life to occur in a laboratory.
No, that's not your POINT; it's your ASSERTION. And an unproven one.
And, if the universe were truly random, there is no reason to believe that it would not have.
Wrong. There are enormous reasons to believe that it would not have, starting with that whole probability thing you're having so much trouble with, and tried to ignore in my last post.
Now, however, after massive technological progress during the past 54 years, we appear to be back to Square One when it comes to creating life. Doesn't that make you wonder just a tad if the creation of life really was a random process?
No, not really. You see, I've observed that the same equations that describe the regular growth of a cabbage also describe the irregular spreading of ink in water; that the same equations that govern the random rolls of dice govern the random recombinations of sexual reproduction.
We are nowhere near square one. In the 1950s, we had no idea that complexity (by which I mean mathematical complexity, also known as dynamical systems or non-linear analysis) even existed; the discovery of the first clearly identified complex system was not made until Edward Lorenz discovered a curious fact about the behavior of a simple weather simulation he was running on a computer in 1961. Non-linear dynamics was not being taught in schools until the 1970s, only one school in the US for most of that decade, and there still are old hard-liners who don't accept it as "real mathematics," despite its demonstrated successes in physics, biology, and mathematics itself.
In the 1950s we had no idea how phospholipids could self-organize into membranes spontaneously when put into water.
We did not know what DNA was until 1953, and we did not understand what it did until 1957; and the final details of how it and RNA interact to create proteins were not understood until the 1970s or later; the actual structure of the RNA in a ribosome was not worked out until the year 2000. That RNA was created from DNA by RNA polymerase was not announced until 1965; and the mechanics of expression, that is, the transcription by RNA polymerase of DNA sequences into the complementary sequences in mRNA, followed by the translation of that mRNA into a protein by ribosomes, also made of RNA, and supplied with amino acids by tRNA, was not known until the late 1960s at the earliest. Without even knowing how this mechanism worked, how can anyone have had any realistic idea of how a cell worked? And until the invention of the scanning electron microscope in 1964, biologists had never seen the organelles inside a eukaryotic cell; even then, special techniques had to be used, and only partial information was available.
We did not understand the full role of proteins in life until the 1990s; and even today we are still learning how they work. We simply didn't know enough physics until then.
You see, this is why it's so unreasonable of you to expect us to know everything. We don't have a theory of everything in physics; and we don't have powerful enough computers to do the research into complexity, or non-linear or dynamical systems, or whatever you want to call it, that we need to do in order to understand more details about how life works; the heck with life, we don't even understand turbulence properly yet. Gonna tell me jebus has a hand in turbulence?
Hey, the Rolamite bearing wasn't even invented until the 1960s, and that's been described as the only fundamental mechanical invention of the 20th century! And guess what? Here we are in 2007 and nobody's using the rolamite for anything! It's like the story of the switch-mode power supply. And most like the Cuk converter; I've seen, now, four consumer products that had Cuk converter power supplies. Out of hundreds of thousands that could use them. So if we can't even figure out how to use stuff we already know, and have known for thirty years or more, why would you expect we'd know enough that you can RULE OUT random chance?
Because here's the thing:
Fundamentally, your post in this thread is dishonest. Here is why:
1. You did not announce in clear language what your position is.
2. Your initial argument places the burden of proof on "random chance;" however, random chance is a proven operation, as I showed. The REAL burden of proof is on YOU, and it is to prove that there is something other than chemistry going on in a cell. Because that is what you have to prove to prove that a cell cannot occur by random chance; if it is just all chemistry, then anything can happen at any time, and given a long time and a lot of space, then anything WILL happen. It is only if there is "something extra" above and beyond the chemicals and their interactions that it won't.
So, now you get to prove the existence of that something extra. How about a look in a microscope? Oh, yeah, that's right, that didn't work out too well for you guys with Galileo and the telescope, yes? Pretty bad propaganda there. Not to mention the evocation of the image of our Imperious Leader bumbling around looking under his desk for WMD. While the soldiers he was supposed to be commanding were dying.
Besides, there have been thousands, nay millions of pictures taken with microscopes, of cells, and no one has ever seen anything in there but chemicals. So I don't think you're going to find anything. You are of course welcome to look; but until you can pull that something extra out and show it to me, I'm going to exercise my option not to believe in things that no one can prove exists. Just like I do with all the rest of that horsepucky made up by the neolithic sheep herders.