A Lucid Proposal For A Preliminary Test

[Mendeli]

There's an enormous incentive for JREF to see me fail, no matter what their intentions.

How come? I would rather think that there's an enormous incentive for JREF to see you succeed! Proving telepathy exists would revolutionize science, JREF would definitely get more funding, far outweighing the loss of a million.

 

[Flange Desire]

Unlikely events occur with far greater frequency than impossible ones.

Thank you for that pearl.

 

[steenkh]

To indicate the start of a "send", have your wife ring a small hand bell (or buzzer, whatever - as long as it is not a verbal signal).

Have her signal the start of each try at a regular interval (3-5mins) so as reduce the possibility that you are counting.

If MP and his wife are testing themselves, they do not need to account for fraud. Even if MP is counting subconsciously, he will still have to have agreed on the code with his wife, and he would know it.

 

[EHocking]

If MP and his wife are testing themselves, they do not need to account for fraud.

True. But the protocol that JREF negotiate with them would need to, so I was merely proposing that they attempt a blind test very much like the conditions they would work under in the JREF Challenge.

Even if MP is counting subconsciously, he will still have to have agreed on the code with his wife, and he would know it.

I agree. That's why I said "subconsciously" - I'm presuming that they are *not* cheating, but that their tests to date have not been constructed to controlling potential cheating.

If they *were* cheating, then, as you say, they would know that they are attempting fraud and our suggestions for them to blind-test themselves prior to a JREF Challenge are pointless.

 

[Ririon]

...I also received this:Although he didn't change things, he took the time to consider my request and personally send a response.

Since this was my original plan (finding a locale for a preliminary test) I will contact NCAS and see if we can arrange a demo with the test controls we've been discussing...

Are we to understand from this that you have abandoned your request to change the rules, and will attempt the challenge with the official rules in place?

 

[EHocking]

We're in separate rooms at different parts of the house. There's no way to communicate.

We've done it 8 times on 8 different days. We're averaging 7 correct guesses out of 10.

7 out of 10 is still within the bounds of chance (that is significant chance at odds of 1:10,000). This web page is a simply stated summary of how these odds are arrived at - refer to table II.

Note that 8 tries a day doesn't constitute a single trial of 80 when referring to the table above - otherwise you would have nailed the Challenge with 56 successes from 80 trials (threshold being 30 successes).

But since you say you *average* 7, you therefore must have tries when you achieved a score of 8 - that would get you past the preliminary Challenge (unless JREF have upped the ante from 10,000:1 odds for the prelim).

I don't suppose you have documented these tests?
How many times, of the 8 tries, did you get scores better than 7?

(edited for arithmetic)

 

[Pup]

I first thought that the professor was planning to cheat, and I was looking forward to it. A battle of wits between titans, Randi vs. the Mental Professor, Sherlock Holmes vs. Moriarty. Bring it on!

Now I'm thinking it's going to turn out more like some subtle version of Clever Hans, that will melt away under scientific test conditions. Bummer.

Of course, the best outcome of all would be actual proof that there is some way to communicate by telepathy, which is why I'm still hoping the professor will agree to the challenge. If he's not planning to cheat, and if this isn't some kind of Moriarty-like attempt to humiliate Randi at his own game, the chance of Randi or the JREF sueing a reasonable person for reasonable behavior after an honest attempt at the challenge and a gracious loss or fair victory, seems to be about nil.

 

[Mr. Scott]

Professor Drew and Clever Hansel

Now I'm thinking it's going to turn out more like some subtle version of Clever Hans, that will melt away under scientific test conditions. Bummer.

I think that's a part of what's going on. If Drew has not carefully studied the case of Clever Hans he should right away. Clever Hans story.

It's quite possible that Mrs. Drew is altering her speech, composure, breathing, demeanor, and body language according to which of the five symbols she is sending. This she may do completely unconsciously, and Drew, having known her signs for 17 years, can pick up on them, also unconsciously.

You can see a present day version of Clever Hans, a mind-reading Jack Russell Terrier, in an online video I've shared in another thread: Clever Maggie

 

[rjh01]

Of course the mental professor will now know that we know those tricks and would now not use them. The method he will use is one that James Randi and co have never seen before.

 

[Mental Professor]

Only time for a quick post...

It's quite possible that Mrs. Drew is altering her speech, composure, breathing, demeanor, and body language according to which of the five symbols she is sending. This she may do completely unconsciously, and Drew, having known her signs for 17 years, can pick up on them, also unconsciously.

In our few tightly controlled experiments, we're in separate rooms and we cannot see nor hear each other. The observers are in control.

 

[Dumb All Over]

In our few tightly controlled experiments, we're in separate rooms and we cannot see nor hear each other.

You get positive results when you're in separate rooms. How about separate floors? Separate houses or buildings? Separate neighborhoods? Separate cities? Separate states? Separate countries? Separate hemispheres? Separate planets?

 

[Yahzi]

I know too many people that have been sued for ridiculous reasons, but they had to defend themselves anyway.

Randi has never sued anyone. His organization has never sued anyone. He has been sued, numerous times. He has nothing to gain by suing you.

Neither do the people who so him have anything to gain - but that's the whole point. They sue because they are irrational. So Randi tries to protect himself from irrationality.

Has Randi demonstrated any irratoinality on his part? Is there any reason you need to assume it?

There's an enormous incentive for JREF to see me fail, no matter what their intentions.

Which is?

Need I remind you - it's not even his money?

Ignoring the fact that if you could, in fact, pass the Challenge, you would make Randi more famous than the Beatles.

Your complete dismissal of Randi's integrity - and your blindness to the possibilities open to Randi if you could indeed pass - speak volumes about you. Unfortunately, they are all negative.

 

[LordoftheLeftHand]

If my lawyer says it's no big deal, then I will continue with JREF.

Well any word from your lawyer?

LLH

 

[Paul2]

Randi has never sued anyone. His organization has never sued anyone. He has been sued, numerous times. He has nothing to gain by suing you.

Neither do the people who so him have anything to gain - but that's the whole point. They sue because they are irrational. So Randi tries to protect himself from irrationality.

Has Randi demonstrated any irratoinality on his part? Is there any reason you need to assume it?


Which is?

Need I remind you - it's not even his money?

Ignoring the fact that if you could, in fact, pass the Challenge, you would make Randi more famous than the Beatles.

Your complete dismissal of Randi's integrity - and your blindness to the possibilities open to Randi if you could indeed pass - speak volumes about you. Unfortunately, they are all negative.

Extremely well considered and thought-out. Nothing can substitute for excellent logic.

 

[MandosV]

Do little red flags of warning jump out all over the place for anyone else but me, when after pages of posts and days of discussion MP has yet to try a practice test following the reasonable protocols recommended on this page?

 

[Admiral]

Do little red flags of warning jump out all over the place for anyone else but me, when after pages of posts and days of discussion MP has yet to try a practice test following the reasonable protocols recommended on this page?

Not really. For me, the red flags come from the fact that unless he stops making demands about the contract, he'll never get his application accepted.

 

[rjh01]

Do little red flags of warning jump out all over the place for anyone else but me, when after pages of posts and days of discussion MP has yet to try a practice test following the reasonable protocols recommended on this page?

He says he has done a 'few tightly controlled experiments'. But what that means I am not sure. See quote below.

Only time for a quick post...
In our few tightly controlled experiments, we're in separate rooms and we cannot see nor hear each other. The observers are in control.

I have two worries with the Mental Professor
1. He has done what he claims to have done. We could have someone who will at long last pass the preliminary test. This is unprecedented.

2. We have not heard from him since the above quote 4 days ago and it has been more than 5 days since we had any lengthy response. Before that we have heard from him nearly every day. Is he still trying for the prize?

I hope we can look forward to reading a lengthy progress report from him. With luck it will state he will give details of an independent test he has arranged. This is my wishful thinking.

 

[Admiral]

MP, I strongly recommend you avoid sending any correspondence to Mr. Wagg using the word "lawyer."

Why? Because in the history of the Challenge, the moment the applicant starts talking about lawyers is the moment he starts accusing the JREF of fraud and threatening to sue. There have been multiple lawsuits against the JREF or against Randi- all pointless, self-absorbed exercises, usually from applicants who failed the test and sued Randi because of the harm it caused them, or because he refused to take their application. I'm not saying you'll be one of those people- I'm saying that after this history of legal messes, the JREF is not interested in getting involved in legal disputes.

There is no reason to want legal protection from the JREF if you can do what you say you can. Consider the JREF's position if you win the prize:

They're suddenly a household name- because the media will all give stories about someone who won a million dollars for being telepathic, and in the process mention the JREF and their long-standing Million Dollar Prize. Randi has stated that he'd be happy if someone won the million. The JREF wouldn't "cease to exist"- there are dozens of other things Randi argues against, such as alternative medicine, dowsing and creationism- not to mention psychics that refuse to be held to the same standard you were. Also note that Randi isn't interested in putting people down- he's interested in finding out about the world, and debunking scams and hoaxes that distort understanding. If psychic powers are real, he'd be happy about it.

Anyway, you won the prize, and you and the JREF are well known. At that point, you say the JREF could sue you. If it did, it wouldn't be well-known- it would be the punchline of a joke. It would give an image of itself as money-grubbing, selfish, and unreasonable. (Think about the two women who sued McDonald's because they were obese, a few years ago.) They signed a contract to pay you money if you suceeded, and then after paying you, claimed that you did something unfair? Not only wouldn't such a lawsuit succeed, the JREF would have to be immensely stupid (not to mention selfish, dishonest, and unreasonable) to attempt it.

There reasons applicants would want to sue the JREF- a brief look at history supports this. If you go through the test fairly, there are no reasons the JREF would want to sue you.

If you really have this power, than it's a ridiculous choice to give up the million based on a fantasy that the JREF is that stupid.

 

[steenkh]

But of course, if the prize was won through dishonest means (say, if the independent tester turned out not to be independent after all), it is possible that the JREF would sue.

Randi has stated that the prize can be won through trickery, but that it would be unlikely. However, if anybody considers out-tricking Randi, it would nevertheless be wise to consider the risk of a lawsuit.

 

[Rasmus]

But of course, if the prize was won through dishonest means (say, if the independent tester turned out not to be independent after all), it is possible that the JREF would sue.

Randi has stated that the prize can be won through trickery, but that it would be unlikely. However, if anybody considers out-tricking Randi, it would nevertheless be wise to consider the risk of a lawsuit.

I am not so sure that a lawsuit would do oyu any good. The contract doesn't detail how the applicant has to perform his task. It only says what has to be done under which circumstances. So if an applicant cheats in a way that Randi has not forseen, he still fulfilled the contract and is entitled to the price.

The procedures really do work both ways: There is a protocol that both parties agee on, after all. The JREF believes that only paranormal abilities can make you pass - but that is not an actual requirement of the contract.

Rasmus.