Merged 2024 Election Thread

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But why is it that Democrats think the way to win elections is to tack to the Right?
I'm not convinced they really think that. The fact that that approach has essentially always "failed" for decades is just too plain to see, and they are, after all, paid by the same people who pay the Republicans. The same donors aren't donating to get two opposite sets of things done, so that means one party is paid to win and the other is paid to "lose".

But, to the extent that it can be believed that they really are that unbelievably gullible & blind, it probably dates back to Carter's loss in 1980 and the fact that Bill Clinton was the next Democrat to win after that. Bill is now famous for governing relatively conservatively, going out of his way to snub lefties and either making concessions to the right or just simply going along with or adopting righty ideas like "welfare reform". He even popularized names for this approach, "triangulation" and "third way", while teaching other Democrats that it was the key to his success. So it's apparently easy to ascribe that same tone from his governance to the campaign that won him the job as if they surely must be the same, whereas his actual campaign slogans & speeches, the entirety of what people knew about him when they decided to vote for him, sounded like Bernie (with a different accent). And then that dissonance set them up for another round of the same dissonance when Obama followed exactly the same pattern: run sounding like Bernie & win, govern conservatively, be remembered for the latter while the former is denied/forgotten.

And then their approach finally got one single "success" when the Republicans handed them a rabid orange baboon for an opponent and a virus appeared which couldn't be seen coming & can't be expected to help again, which combined to be just barely enough for Captain Electable to scrape by with a margin of less than a third of a thousandth of the total vote, which was then touted as proof that he really was Captain Electable.

As for the fact that their approach lost every other Presidential election along with well over a thousand other Federal & state seats throughout the country in the same era: Those don't count because, especially in Hillary's case, there's no end to the excusery they can come up with for those, just like astrology fans with astrology and "medium" fans with mediums and Christians with prayer and so on.

But there are so many young voters, and Union voters, and companies desperate for workers, and people who want affordable healthcare, and friends and realitives of migrants he could tap with the right words and EOs.
Not that he'd ever consider doing that, but, even if he were to, I think it's probably too late to trick anybody with that kind of pretense now.

* * *

Steve Forbes has a video out in which he says Bide will withdraw and be replaced, but he doesn't really say why he will do that; he just says why he thinks he should and speculates about about what would happen next.

* * *

With Trump up nationally 50-49 but Biden up in swing states 50-49 as of a few days ago, we could have a Republican win the national vote and a Democrat win the election because of the Electoral College. At least then some more red states would probably join the Compact!
 
But why is it that Democrats think the way to win elections is to tack to the Right?
If Trump (and before that Obama) has taught us anything, it's that that never works.
Even know, the right wing media machine is undoing whatever PR Biden thought making migration harder would bring.
It's stupid to meet your opponent halfway in an election year - but that's Biden's entire career.

If you want Biden to win, you have to force Biden to change and go hard Left.
Trumpers already believe he is an Agent of the Chinese Communist Party, and the rest of the Republican just don't want any Democrat to win anything ever, so there is nothing to lose.or gain herem

But there are so many young voters, and Union voters, and companies desperate for workers, and people who want affordable healthcare, and friends and realitives of migrants he could tap with the right words and EOs.

But Biden would rather lose as a centrist than win as a progressive.
In this case taking action on the border is a practical matter. They can't handle that many people applying for assylum. Other than that he has stood his ground. China tariffs were put in place by Trump, so Biden did not actually do it.
 
Normal independent voters can see what we see.
We hear what we hear.

Perhaps senile is too specific and not a responsible or ethical claim.

I wouldn't make any exaggerated diagnosis (as I am not his doctor) other than I think most rational people can see the marked decline. It has progressed significantly since he ran in 2020...and gets worse...and worse. ...and now much worse.

It is not rare for this mental decline- for even the most healthy of men or women.. (eta) at a certain age - usually not seen until over 70 but much more common over 80

GIVE ME SOMEONE UNDER 65 PLEASE.

As a “normal independent voter” you literally posted a tweet from a deranged right winger in support of your “Biden is in decline” narrative just a couple of pages ago. This is the embodiment of the exact point that Stacyhs is making.
 
But why is it that Democrats think the way to win elections is to tack to the Right?

But Biden would rather lose as a centrist than win as a progressive.

I wish you were right, and I believe you will be in about 10-20 yrs...but can anyone name a true progressive who has won on the national stage??
 
Ross Perot came close, and would have won if either party would have had him.

:D Well thats a stretch. I agree that by today's standards he might be somewhat progressive on some fronts, but even though I actually voted for Ross as a third party candidate (since I am a long time Independent who despises the 2 party system) all I remember of his campaign these days is the classic "who am I? Why am I here?" joke of his running mate.
 
I wish you were right, and I believe you will be in about 10-20 yrs...but can anyone name a true progressive who has won on the national stage??
Bill Clinton and Obama both won by running as progressives. That's a 100% success rate among the times it's been tried in the modern era. The fact that they were lying about their progressiveness doesn't change the fact that that's how they ran and it worked. (And even if they hadn't, that would just mean that it hadn't been tried, not that it had been tried and failed.)

Zoomers are going to play an important role in the election.

Apparently, in 2020 they went heavily for Biden.

If they don't this year, he's bang in trouble, and it seems they're not so keen right now.
This close to the election, it would be silly to think there will be any big changes. He'd need to do something big and sudden to have a chance at drawing people who aren't voting for him already, even if he did it would be so different from who he's always been that a lot of the target audience would probably think it was fake, and he won't in any case because he's already doing the job exactly the way he thinks he should. So he's already lost the young voters. His only remaining path to a win now depends on the old ones finding Trump scary enough. (And least one good thing Biden seems to have going for him there is that his behavior that screams out senility to younger observers looks perfectly normal to oldtimers.)

The more interesting & important question than who will win is what will the DP do afterward. You'd think something someday would have to snap them out of their fixation on charging full-speed-ahead down their current path of self-desctruction, and you could hope that seeing Biden lose will do it, but nothing else has done it yet, so why would one more? Maybe what it'll finally take is for the party's old Republiclones who got us into this mess to just be in the grave and out of the way, if their death-grip on their own party doesn't get loosened any other way. One thing you can be sure of is that, if some new miracle comes along and just barely saves Biden again like the virus did last time, they'll point to that "win" as proof that their approach was right all along... again... so the party definitely won't be on a path toward getting any better after that.
 
I know that, but I sitll think anybody on the left who refuses to vote for Biden becuase he is not far enough to the left is an idiot.
I got a feeling this was prompted because I dared to suggest people on the left can do stupid things.

I will be happy if lots of liberals in Texas vote for RFK to protest Biden being too corporate or centrist so long as they vote for dems in more local elections. Allowing them an easy and non-harmful way to protest Biden while also supporting the party where it matters is not idiotic.

Biden can’t win Texas. Other dems can win in Texas if the far left shows up to vote.
 
Bill Clinton and Obama both won by running as progressives. That's a 100% success rate among the times it's been tried in the modern era. The fact that they were lying about their progressiveness doesn't change the fact that that's how they ran and it worked. (And even if they hadn't, that would just mean that it hadn't been tried, not that it had been tried and failed.)

Which is simply a confession that you can't name a 'true' progressive who has won. And I assume you aren't advising Biden to lie to get elected.
I would argue that Clinton and Obama both won by running as charismatic figures, the same way Trump won. Charisma always Trumps policy in our elections.

This close to the election, it would be silly to think there will be any big changes. He'd need to do something big and sudden to have a chance at drawing people who aren't voting for him already, even if he did it would be so different from who he's always been that a lot of the target audience would probably think it was fake, and he won't in any case because he's already doing the job exactly the way he thinks he should. So he's already lost the young voters. His only remaining path to a win now depends on the old ones finding Trump scary enough. (And least one good thing Biden seems to have going for him there is that his behavior that screams out senility to younger observers looks perfectly normal to oldtimers.)

The more interesting & important question than who will win is what will the DP do afterward. You'd think something someday would have to snap them out of their fixation on charging full-speed-ahead down their current path of self-desctruction, and you could hope that seeing Biden lose will do it, but nothing else has done it yet, so why would one more? Maybe what it'll finally take is for the party's old Republiclones who got us into this mess to just be in the grave and out of the way, if their death-grip on their own party doesn't get loosened any other way. One thing you can be sure of is that, if some new miracle comes along and just barely saves Biden again like the virus did last time, they'll point to that "win" as proof that their approach was right all along... again... so the party definitely won't be on a path toward getting any better after that.

All of this ignores the very real possibility that is Trump wins, there won't be a DP or GOP, there will be one party, the party of Trump. This is not some fantasy. He and his supporters have basically laid out how it is going to happen.
He is not going to just suspend the constitution, he and his enablers--who will be hugely strengthened by the win--will ensure that the electoral system is completely rigged in their favor for all future elections, we will be a defacto Russia. That has been Trump's MO from the get go--accuse his opponents of rigging elections (and being racists, and fascists, and every other adjective that properly describes himself) as a deflection to his very real efforts to become a dictator.
 
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Which is simply a confession that you can't name a 'true' progressive who has won. And I assume you aren't advising Biden to lie to get elected.
I would argue that Clinton and Obama both won by running as charismatic figures, the same way Trump won. Charisma always Trumps policy in our elections.

I agree. It had more to do with their own charisma than their policies. People don't vote on policy, they vote on emotion.

All of this ignores the very real possibility that is Trump wins, there won't be a DP or GOP, there will be one party, the party of Trump. This is not some fantasy. He and his supporters have basically laid out how it is going to happen.
He is not going to just suspend the constitution, he and his enablers--who will be hugely strengthened by the win--will ensure that the electoral system is completely rigged in their favor for all future elections, we will be a defacto Russia. That has been Trump's MO from the get go--accuse his opponents of rigging elections (and being racists, and facists, and every other adjective that properly describes himself) as a deflection to his very real efforts to become a dictator.

I agree. Trump does not consider himself bound by the rule of law. He never has. His claim that POTUSes have full immunity is no less than a declaration of intent to be a dictator with no limits to his authority.
 
As a “normal independent voter” you literally posted a tweet from a deranged right winger in support of your “Biden is in decline” narrative just a couple of pages ago. This is the embodiment of the exact point that Stacyhs is making.


What garbage you spew. Literal vomit.
I simply searched for a link to the video I saw. The video is real. It is not rocket science to determine that the most views would be by someone anti-Biden or maybe a total crazy pants troll. I don't care to do a full background check if the video link works.
Please review your logical fallacies and address the evidence in front of you.
 
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And I assume you aren't advising Biden to lie to get elected.
If it took the form of actually doing something to benefit the people, or even seriously trying to, it wouldn't be a lie, but, even if all he did was talk like he's going to do something, that might still work better than being himself. The main reason why it might not at this point is how late it is in this term of office and how little time is left before the election. (He did, after all, tell a few lies about stuff he was going to do once elected the first time around.)

I would argue that Clinton and Obama both won by running as charismatic figures, the same way Trump won. Charisma always Trumps policy in our elections.
In politics, the predominant source of "charisma" is agreement with your audience on the issues.

Campaign Bill and Campaign Obama didn't have quite the same main audience as 2016 Campaign Trump, but there was some overlap under the umbrella of "seeing problems with the country and wanting them fixed". The "change candidate" won over the "status quo candidate" all three times.

simply a confession
Attempts to distort & mischaracterize what one's interlocutor has said are common for people who are also trying to distort & mischaracterize the subject being talked about.
 
Project 2025

I think Project 2025 (Wikipedia) may deserve its own thread, but for now I'll post this here:
John Oliver discusses the plans for Donald Trump’s second term, an interesting campaign choice from a conservative congressional candidate in Michigan, and the bakery that has very successfully turned John into a cake bear.
Trump’s Second Term, MLK & Red Lobster Update: 6/16/24: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (Last Week Tonight with John Oliver on YouTube, June 17, 2024 - 38:59 min.)

For those of you who don't know yet: Project 2025 is the program for the fascist takeover and restructuring of the USA in case Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. Until now, I had only read bits about it here and there, but Last Week Tonight makes an excellent presentation of it in a little less than half an hour, from 3:00 to 30:45.
It is so much worse than what I expected based on what I've seen so far.

Depending on the region you're in, some of you may not be able to watch this on YouTube until Thursday of this week.
 
What garbage you spew. Literal vomit.
I simply searched for a link to the video I saw. The video is real. It is not rocket science to determine that the most views would be by someone anti-Biden or maybe a total crazy pants troll. I don't care to do a full background check if the video link works.
Please review your logical fallacies and address the evidence in front of you.

I’m not sure to what “logical fallacies” you’re referring, but you very much posted a tweet from a anti-vax conspiracy theorist right winger that was part a coordinated smear campaign. That you mindlessly posted it is no one’s fault but your own and no one owes you an apology for noticing it.

If you don’t want to be called out for it or mocked for claiming to be a “normal independent voter”, maybe stop doing that.
 
Bill Clinton and Obama both won by running as progressives. That's a 100% success rate among the times it's been tried in the modern era.

That is simply not true.

Clinton campaigned as a Southern Democrat; a New Democrat; a Conservative Democrat; a neo-liberal. He was not progressive, and was not embraced by progressives at the time.

His promises included get tough on crime; end welfare as we know it; balance the budget; improve defense readiness. His healthcare reform was not what progressives wanted then or now. It wasn't single payer, universal or government run.

Obama was embraced by progressives, but his policy specifics were more left centrist than Democratic. He was to the left of Hillary and to the right of Bernie.
 
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