• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Merged 2024 Election Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
A distinguished professor of history at American University, Allan Lichtman has made a name for himself through one unusual talent: He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine elections out of the 10 most recent presidential races, using a model he invented known as the 13 keys. The only election he has incorrectly predicted was the 2000 presidential election, selecting Al Gore over George Bush in a prediction he insists was the correct choice, saying the 2000 election was stolen. The 13 keys method was created in partnership with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The pair adapted models used to predict earthquakes to better understand the American political sphere.

...

According to the American University’s website, the 13 keys are:

(1) Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
(2) Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
(3) Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
(4) Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
(5) Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
(6) Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
(7) Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
(8) Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
(9) Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
(10) Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
(11) Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
(12) Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
(13) Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

...

Lichtman is not slated to give his official prediction until August, but so far, he thinks Joe Biden has the upper hand. “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian.
Click to expand...


(1) Well, it holds fewer in 2023 at 213 versus 235 in 2019, but more than in 2015 at 188. Hmm. Fifty fifty.
(2) Definitely no serious contest. Biden clearly won that back in June.
(3) Yes, most definitely.
(4) Third parties don't really exist here.
(5) No recession.
(6) Doing great. Full employment.
(7) Successfully implemented policy changes like the Whip Inflation Now act.
(8) Everything seems calm, compared to the previous administration.
(9) No scandal what so ever.
(10) No real failures to report here.
(11) Got out of Afghanistan. I call that a success.
(12) Well, he's got age an experience.
(13) Not a hero, no charisma.

With the exceptions of points two and twelve, he's got a 85% chance of winning. I'll go with that.
 
I saw a news article point out that the shooting incident could also help Biden because it'll distract the media and voters from that ongoing discussion about his age and health we've been having for weeks now.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
I saw a news article point out that the shooting incident could also help Biden because it'll distract the media and voters from that ongoing discussion about his age and health we've been having for weeks now.
Click to expand...
And it demonstrates once again that the Republicans are the party of essentially 100% of the violent maniacs in politics, even when target is one of their own, and that Trump's immediate instinctive response even while still surrounded by his human shields was to call for even more violence.

And it came soon after he was shown to be one of Epstein's buddies and there was finally some media attention on Project 2025.
 
Solitaire said:
With the exceptions of points two and twelve, he's got a 85% chance of winning. I'll go with that.
Click to expand...
All arguments that Biden can/will/might win for quite a while now have been about theoretical reasons why he should be ahead, not evidence that he actually is, but in fact going against the actual data showing that he isn't. We can't theorize our way out of the facts.

And some of the points in that list show why that prediction is currently going wrong. The economic factors it considers are old traditional ones that have recently been getting more & more detached from most people's experiences. The "incumbent or challenger" paradigm doesn't describe a situation where both are essentially running as incumbents. The whole concept of using precedents itself doesn't appear to be applicable to an unprecedented situation where both candidates are so terrible and so historically unpopular & unqualified that they'd each be 100% unelectable in elections that weren't against each other.

And that's just in how they set up their predicting process. On some points, concluding from their process that Biden's likely to win depends on feeding some bad data into that process. It asks about "major" policy change, not just any old bill that the commoners never noticed because it hasn't really affected anything, and we've had nothing, from a guy whose whole identity is all about never changing anything. Foreign/military successes & failures? He's currently supporting a genocide in one foreign country and dragging out a war in another as if the goal there were just to maximize war itself not end it positively. Afghanistan was cool, but it isn't current (and it was his opponent's plan he was carrying out). I'll give half a point on "social unrest", but not the other half. We don't have huge marching chanting sign-carrying protests happening all over the place right now, but social unrest can take less obvious forms, especially in a country that's never been particularly protesty in the first place and where there's more & more call from the police and right-wingers for the police to attack protesters more & more. And whatever Trump has that isn't "charisma" or "hero status", it seems to have pretty much the same effects.
 
Last edited:
Jeff Tiedrich had this great line about Vance. He described him as a “professional fake hillbilly” ...

BUT
"Vance is descended from “hillbilly royalty” on his father’s side: His grandfather’s distant cousin — also named Jim Vance — married into the Hatfield family and is rumored to have committed the murder that instigated the legendary Hatfield-McCoy feud."
 
Last edited:
Delvo said:
And it demonstrates once again that the Republicans are the party of essentially 100% of the violent maniacs in politics
Click to expand...

Where have you been for the past 10 years?


even when target is one of their own, and that Trump's immediate instinctive response even while still surrounded by his human shields was to call for even more violence.
Click to expand...

Don't be silly.
 
Tero said:
Jeff Tiedrich had this great line about Vance. He described him as a “professional fake hillbilly” ...

BUT
"Vance is descended from “hillbilly royalty” on his father’s side: His grandfather’s distant cousin — also named Jim Vance — married into the Hatfield family and is rumored to have committed the murder that instigated the legendary Hatfield-McCoy feud."
Click to expand...

I thought there was a thread on Trumps VP but cannot find it. Oh well...not a surprising choice of course since in an interview on Fox Trump reiterated that "no one in America" cares about the VP pick, since of course in his mind there is no reason for a successor when you are King.
 
"I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical ******* like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler," he wrote privately to an associate on Facebook in 2016. -JD Vance (per Reuters.com)

Makes perfect sense to chose him as running mate.
 
stanfr said:
"I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical ******* like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler," he wrote privately to an associate on Facebook in 2016. -JD Vance (per Reuters.com)

Makes perfect sense to chose him as running mate.
Click to expand...

JD Vance, true to his newly found faith, had a Damascene moment about Trump just as he was trying to get elected to the Senate and now realises how wrong he was.:rolleyes:
 
And Trump picks somebody just as unfit for the presidency as he is to be VEEp.
Vance is a Trump toady who before he was elected senator never help public officei his life. Hell , he can't even claim to have ran a business sucessfully.
 
Biden’s Wins
@BidensWins
BREAKING: In a stunning leak, Donald Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance, was caught thanking the leaders of Project 2025 for their work banning abortion and defunding Social Security and Medicare. Retweet so all Americans see this devastating clip of Trump’s VP.

https://x.com/bidenswins/status/1812927576626896914
 
zorro99 said:
Biden’s Wins
@BidensWins
BREAKING: In a stunning leak, Donald Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance, was caught thanking the leaders of Project 2025 for their work banning abortion and defunding Social Security and Medicare. Retweet so all Americans see this devastating clip of Trump’s VP.
https://x.com/bidenswins/status/1812927576626896914
Click to expand...

I'm never quite sure if Bidens Wins is a parody account.
 
Oh good. I was afraid Trump would go with someone who might be seen as a moderating influence. Imagine if Larry Hogan had got the pick? He'd have had all the GOP back on board immediately, and even the centrist Dems here going "well... that wouldn't be ALL bad, you know."

But sure, Vance, that's great. A spineless little white nationalist kiss-ass who is the cautionary endpoint of every argument made about what the Republican party has been turning into. Just perfect.
 
Garrison said:
My guess is sympathy for Trump will last right up until he gets over the shock of the attack and starts blaming everyone under the sun for conspiring against him.
Click to expand...

Delvo said:
And it demonstrates once again that the Republicans are the party of essentially 100% of the violent maniacs in politics, even when target is one of their own, and that Trump's immediate instinctive response even while still surrounded by his human shields was to call for even more violence.

And it came soon after he was shown to be one of Epstein's buddies and there was finally some media attention on Project 2025.
Click to expand...

I guess we should also point out to the trumpkins that only one US president in recent history has agitated for having a rival candidate killed.

“If she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks,” Mr. Trump said, as the crowd began to boo. He quickly added: “Although the Second Amendment people — maybe there is, I don’t know.”

If Biden had said that it'd probably have cost him the 2024 presidency.
 
dudalb said:
And you think that is a good thing.
You really do want the US to become a right wing dictatorship.
Click to expand...

The thing about giving out free psychic readings is you can literally make up anything you desire without the need for truthful or factual statements. If you wanted a discussion, simply say so.

I think JD Vance is a good VP candidate. I would not object to a Trump family Presidential legacy, to include free and fair elections. Our Constitution limits a President to serving two terms and I do not advocate for extending beyond that.

I do see a potential Republican candidate in Donald Trump Jr in 2028 as VP. Of course that's just my opinion.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom