I would, but I don't gamble (other than with my health and by investing in the stock market
)
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2020 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Skeptic Ginger
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I would, but I don't gamble (other than with my health and by investing in the stock market
)I was saying the same, and getting the same response 4 years ago
I'd love to be wrong this time around.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Remember 2016. It's not over, till it's over. I have no issue with dancing on grave. Just make sure the corpse is in.
Btw. can you bet on the outcome in US ? What are the odds ?
I don't quite understand that probability. My online UK bookie has Trump at 6/4, which translates as a 40% chance of winning. Other bookies have similar odds.
Bookmakers don't actually reflect the odds of something happening, merely where the money has gone. It would seem that around 40% of the money has been bet on President Trump.
Of course if all punters were rational, could accurately assess probabilities and were in full possession of all the facts then those two things would likely be closely aligned.
In truth, for many punters heart rules head and so the odds are often heavily skewed.
Then again, the odds from the Economist and fivethirtyeight are on President Trump winning the election. From the bookies, it's likely whether he'll be President. I think there's a significant difference between the two. I think it's very unlikely President Trump will win the Electoral College first time out, but there is a significant chance that he will successfully challenge some state results, get large numbers of ballots thrown out and may end up either getting an EC majority or engineering it so neither candidate does - in which case he becomes President thanks to the House.
That's the fun with betting markets. They reflect what people active on these markets think will happen, not what polling actually says. Hence these discrepancies.
If you believe that the models (538, The Economist) are correct, you should bet on Biden.
The expected value of a $100 bet is $138 (minus expenses I guess, no idea how these devilish things work in practice). Nice return for a 14 days investment.
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Safe-Keeper
My avatar is not a Drumpf hat
Had to happen at some point. I'm just amazed he slipped as far as 12%, or 7% according to The Economist. I doubt it'll grow too high, to be honest, and Trump still has two weeks (including a debate, unless he finds some way to chicken out) to further mess things up for himself.It's started
Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.
They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Because of the voting system, estimating the outcome in US presidential elections is not easy. You have poll in every state. Each with different uncertainty. Each with different weight. Then you want to estimate how much it can change in the future, what potential is there. That's why these election models are used. They create several hundreds or even thousands of variants, and then they check in what many did each party win. That is the model probability.
It also can show what exactly would have to happen for Trump to win.
FiveThirtyEight gives their model prediction 12% chance for Trump. They also have nice graphs of different outcomes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Look who agreesYes. I guess that the $273.2 million paid to American Made Media Consultants are part of these "fundraising" expenses.
The Trump campaign is milking its donors for the benefit of ... who knows.
Safe-Keeper
My avatar is not a Drumpf hat
I'm not betting money on it, but I'm willing to predict that he will make a fool of himself again in the next debate, especially if the mics can be muted, or that he will use that as an excuse to sit the debate out. Neither outcome will reflect well on him.
Meanwhile, Biden's strategy of keeping a somewhat low profile still seems to be working for him.
Meanwhile, Biden's strategy of keeping a somewhat low profile still seems to be working for him.
Trump treats any money crossing his desk to be his, to do whatever he wants with it, only have to look at his financially illegal managing of his so called charity. There is a reason he is considered an unfit person to be involved in the management of any charity.
Crossbow
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
By the way, ...
God has now told Pat Robertson that Trump will win the election and that the Earth will be hit by an asteroid.
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/pat-...pKvSsLoIzADPk5umk1a2E4_WgczgUQ79UdNVKKiegjyKC
Pat Robertson Shares Bonkers Message From God And Twitter Users Raise Holy Hell
TV preacher Pat Robertson says God told him that President Donald Trump will win reelection.
Oh, and the world’s going to end, probably via an asteroid strike.
“Without question, Trump is going to win the election,” Robertson declared on “The 700 Club” on Tuesday, citing his conversation with the deity. “He’s going to win, that I think’s a given.”
...
So vote for Trump first and then run for your rocket second.
God has now told Pat Robertson that Trump will win the election and that the Earth will be hit by an asteroid.
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/pat-...pKvSsLoIzADPk5umk1a2E4_WgczgUQ79UdNVKKiegjyKC
Pat Robertson Shares Bonkers Message From God And Twitter Users Raise Holy Hell
TV preacher Pat Robertson says God told him that President Donald Trump will win reelection.
Oh, and the world’s going to end, probably via an asteroid strike.
“Without question, Trump is going to win the election,” Robertson declared on “The 700 Club” on Tuesday, citing his conversation with the deity. “He’s going to win, that I think’s a given.”
...
So vote for Trump first and then run for your rocket second.
(note - the odds below are UK style, where betting 6 at 4/6 *gains* you 4, as the stake is returned. The European odds would be 10/6, meaning 6 sees a *return* of 10)
To an extent, but for a bookie to base odds on the balance of betting so far rather than what's visibly happening is a road to ruin.
Consider A 2-horse race over a mile between A and B, where they are equally fancied before the start and attract equal volumes of bets. Ignoring the bookies' profit margin, the odds offered will be evens on both, or 1/1.
At half way there's nothing between them and they're both running comfortably so the odds remain at 1/1, reflecting the volumes of in-running betting.
In the last furlong A pulls well ahead and B is visibly weakening. A is a certainty barring a burst blood vessel. Here, for the betting to reflect the overall weight of betting would be madness. Punters would bet heavily on A and the bookies would get slaughtered.
I'd say that Biden's 1/2 odds are quite generous. I'm strictly a small-time punter and can't be bothered to bet £2 to win £1, but for the heavyweights they look like good odds to me.
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
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Depending on which flavour of Christian you ask the End Times™ have been beginning "any day now" for about the past 2020 years.
It's started
Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.
They're tiny, tiny gains, but President Trump has been going backwards for weeks. I think it's too little, too late but if there really are 5% undecided voters who could suddenly decide to vote for President Trump then he still has a significant chance of winning the election without having to resort to the courts or jiggery-pokery.
It's back to 88-12.
(No, no, no, I'm not checking it every nanosecond ...)
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
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It's started
Looking at fivethirtyeight it seems that President Trump is starting to pick up support. He's narrowed the national poll gap, the approve/disapprove gap and Joe Biden's victory probability is down to 87% from 88% and the tie is back in play.
Please lay off the doom mongering for just a bit.
Trump has approximately zero chance of winning re-election.
He has a very enthusiastic and loud core of voters who will always vote red.
There are not enough of them to matter.
A very many people are voting, there are way more prominent republicans who are publically supporting Biden than before, Biden isn't Hilary.
Hell even if you put all of the undecideds and 3rd party voters in Trumps column he *still* wouldn't win re-election.
It will be Biden. It will not be close.
Even with all the dirty tricks the GOP are pulling it'll still be a landslide Democrat win.
gypsyjackson
Master Poster
Democratic win.
Sorry, I’m so used to hearing Democratic Party politicians correct Republicans (fairly pointlessly) that I’m doing it now.
Only if 12% is approximately zero
AUIU those forecasts do not take into account any Republican efforts to change the results of the election after the fact.
Yes he has a very enthusiastic core, and they seem to comprise 40% of the US electorate if his poll numbers an approval numbers are anything to go by.
There are also an unknown number of people who may not have any love for President Trump but would rather die in a ditch than vote Democrat. Whether these people stay at home or hold their noses and vote for President Trump may be crucial to this election, particularly in swing states.
You're right, Biden isn't Hillary, he doesn't seem to generate the same animosity, but then again he doesn't seem to inspire the same levels of support either.
It's almost unthinkable that President Trump will win the popular vote but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he may win the electoral college.
I wish I shared your optimism.
The GOP are in influential positions in the legislature and/or the courts in many of the key swing states. If they can challenge results, get ballots from Democratic leaning districts discounted, mail in ballots excluded en-masse and of course make sure that those people voting Democrat on the day have as difficult as possible a time whether it's through long lines at the polling stations, jobsworths doing the ID checks, problems with the voting machines or armed groups of "election observers" attempting to intimidate voters.
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