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2020 Presidential Election

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varwoche said:
Today's polls look BAD for Trump. And they don't yet factor in the White House super spreader event.
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FiveThirtyEight now has Biden at 82%, Trump at 18%.

First the tax returns, then the the cluster **** of a debate, and now the president, and a quarter hundred of his inner circle, has come down with covid. The past few weeks, sorry, days have not been good to Trump.

(And I still have a feeling the worst is yet to come for him, us being a month away from the election and all)
 
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If it keeps breaking bad, and he doesn't croak, I can envision him using covid as excuse to drop out. Not being seen as a loser is his top priority.
 
What happens if he drops out? Does Pence take over, making it a Biden vs Pence race?
 
The poll showing Biden up 14 points among registered voters was taken before Trump was hospitalised with a deadly illness he spent months downplaying, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives. This thing could get ugly for Trump.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
The poll showing Biden up 14 points among registered voters was taken before Trump was hospitalised with a deadly illness he spent months downplaying, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives. This thing could get ugly for Trump.
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Link?

ETA: is it this?
 
Safe-Keeper said:
FiveThirtyEight now has Biden at 82%, Trump at 18%.

First the tax returns, then the the cluster **** of a debate, and now the president, and a quarter hundred of his inner circle, has come down with covid. The past few weeks, sorry, days have not been good to Trump.

(And I still have a feeling the worst is yet to come for him, us being a month away from the election and all)
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That's 'chance of winning', outcome of complex simulation, and it seems to be result of it taking remaining time to election into account. So it would get more and more assured as the election nears.
Polls itself didn't change much yet. They usually take week, bigger ones even more.
 
538 has Biden up by three points in Florida. One of the few A+ rated polls 538 uses, Siena College/New York Times put Biden at +5 today. That poll was all done before Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis but after the debate. NBC also puts Biden's support among seniors at 62 percent. That's going to be a tough one in Arizona and Florida.

Florida is key to watch because they will probably announce the soonest of the Battleground States. A Florida win early means there's no map for Trump to 270.
 
I'm curious how infirmary of the nominee plays into the consideration for President.

I'm guessing that Trump supporters have to consider the increasing likelihood that Pence might take over soon even if Trump wins - that might dampen enthusiasm.
 
Craig4 said:
538 has Biden up by three points in Florida. One of the few A+ rated polls 538 uses, Siena College/New York Times put Biden at +5 today. That poll was all done before Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis but after the debate. NBC also puts Biden's support among seniors at 62 percent. That's going to be a tough one in Arizona and Florida.

Florida is key to watch because they will probably announce the soonest of the Battleground States. A Florida win early means there's no map for Trump to 270.
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CBS has Trump and Biden tied in Ohio, a state Trump won by 8% in 2016, and Biden +7% in Pennsylvania.
If these results stand, a Rust Belt map for Trump is also very unlikely.

30 days to go, but Trump will need one heck of an "October surprise" to win this. And until now, the "surprises" weren't kind to Trump.

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1312762480184250370?s=19
 
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Craig4 said:
538 has Biden up by three points in Florida. One of the few A+ rated polls 538 uses, Siena College/New York Times put Biden at +5 today. That poll was all done before Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis but after the debate. NBC also puts Biden's support among seniors at 62 percent. That's going to be a tough one in Arizona and Florida.

Florida is key to watch because they will probably announce the soonest of the Battleground States. A Florida win early means there's no map for Trump to 270.
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Yeah, wow, Trump 36, Biden 64. FiveThirtyEight describes this as slightly favoured.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Yeah, wow, Trump 36, Biden 64. FiveThirtyEight describes this as slightly favoured.
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Biden us ahead in most polls taken over the past month, but his lead is typically in the low to mid single digits (close to the margin of error), and the state is controlled by Republicans, who are prone to dirty tricks.


Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk
 
Safe-Keeper said:
What happens if he drops out? Does Pence take over, making it a Biden vs Pence race?
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It's convoluted. The ballots have been printed and any vote by mail State has the ballots already sent out. Each State has it's own rules but it is past the deadline in almost every State. Still it might be possible for Pence to run for President as Vice President since we are really voting for the electors.

So the answer is maybe.
 
Segnosaur said:
Biden us ahead in most polls taken over the past month, but his lead is typically in the low to mid single digits (close to the margin of error), and the state is controlled by Republicans, who are prone to dirty tricks.


Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk
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The problem for Trump is that the voters he's lost in Florida are the ones who are not being suppressed. Women in the suburbs and the elderly are the ones who Florida Republicans wanted to get out and vote and they've lost them.
 
Biden will participate in a nationally televised town hall with NBC News's Lester Holt tomorrow night starting at 7 PM CST!
 
Trump Tweets

US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with covid – EXCLUSIVE
DONALD TRUMP'S illness with coronavirus has not impacted his push to win a second term in the White House, an exclusive poll has revealed.
express.co.uk

(Daily Express, a UK Tabloid is quoting a poll by 'The Democracy Institute')
 
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varwoche said:
If it keeps breaking bad, and he doesn't croak, I can envision him using covid as excuse to drop out. Not being seen as a loser is his top priority.
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That would be too easy. I can see Trump trying to use it as an excuse to cancel the election. Fortunately it's in state hands.
 
Just checked and the Democracy Institute is not recognised as a legitimate polling entity. It is not listed by RCP or 538. It releases polls exclusively for the Daily Express.
 
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