2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker

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Distracted1 said:
How, then, does one judge a candidates potential electability?
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Why must that particular quality be the one you are looking at this early in the process?

Look at how competent they come across (Biden does not come out as competent, he comes out as middle of the road milquetoast), what issues do they support and which of those issues are getting attention?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Why must that particular quality be the one you are looking at this early in the process?

Look at how competent they come across (Biden does not come out as competent, he comes out as middle of the road milquetoast), what issues do they support and which of those issues are getting attention?
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What could possibly be more relavent?

Matters little how much I like the cut of someone's jib if they've no chance of actually attaining the office I desire them to hold.
 
Distracted1 said:
What would you try to do to make the determination then?
Does asking a bunch of people which of the two potential candidates (if either) they would vote for seem like a reasonable place to start trying to figure it out?
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No. The first step is to identify what is predictive.
 
I do agree that head-to-head polls are useful and informative. The fact that the time is so far off mitigates that, but doesn't completely cancel it out, and the same thing is true of the fact that Biden has a history of fizzling.

But the one we were shown here failed to show Biden's results being better than everybody else's, which was the claim, because it was only Biden's numbers, and a simple search for something like "Trump Bernie polls" will turn up a pile of results on that matchup over the last few years, which consistently show a better gap for Bernie. (That was always one of the issues for the Bernie Bros: while a standard claim among Hillaryites and other Democrats was that she had a better chance of winning because of course someone who would actually do stuff to improve the country could never possibly win and you had to be a Republican in disguise in order to have a chance, absolutely all of the actual data said the opposite all along, and was completely verified on election day.)

The current difference between B & B is smaller than I expected, given the fact that Hillary always waved between +2 and -1 or so and Biden is simply Hillary II, but the difference is still there, and I expect it to grow because Biden will Bidenize again. At best for the "Biden's more electable" side, it could be seen as a rough tie. The idea that he's the most electable can't possibly be coming from the poll data. It can only be another round of the Democrats' same old "our side can't ever really win so we need somebody just like the other side" myth which has never worked in my lifetime.
 
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Delvo said:
I do agree that head-to-head polls are useful and informative. The fact that the time is so far off mitigates that, but doesn't completely cancel it out, and the same thing is true of the fact that Biden has a history of fizzling.

But the one we were shown here failed to show Biden's results being better than everybody else's, which was the claim, because it was only Biden's numbers, and a simple search for something like "Trump Bernie polls" will turn up a pile of results on that matchup over the last few years, which consistently show a better gap for Bernie. (That was always one of the issues for the Bernie Bros: while a standard claim among Hillaryites and other Democrats was that she had a better chance of winning because of course someone who would actually do stuff to improve the country could never possibly win and you had to be a Republican in disguise in order to have a chance, absolutely all of the actual data said the opposite all along, and was completely verified on election day.)

The current difference between B & B is smaller than I expected, given the fact that Hillary always waved between +2 and -1 or so and Biden is simply Hillary II, but the difference is still there, and I expect it to grow because Biden will Bidenize again. At best for the "Biden's more electable" side, it could be seen as a rough tie. The idea that he's the most electable can't possibly be coming from the poll data. It can only be another round of the Democrats' same old "our side can't ever really win so we need somebody just like the other side" myth which has never worked in my lifetime.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

Bidens average margin over Trump is nearly twice that of Sanders.

And referring to Biden as "Hillary 2" overlooks the vitriolic disdain that Clinton engendered (irrationally) amongst the talk radio set.
 
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John Hickenlooper gets booed for saying the obvious:

"If we want to beat Donald Trump and achieve big progressive goals, socialism is not the answer," Hickenlooper said to a crowd of more than 4,500 delegates and observers on Saturday.

Before he could get finish his next sentence, a chorus of boos along with a sea of waving "Bernie" signs overtook his speech, lasting for more than 30 seconds. The moment prompted Hickenlooper to attempt a smile and eventually break from his remarks to add, "You know, if we're not careful, we're going to end up helping to re-elect the worst president in history."
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Brainster said:
John Hickenlooper gets booed for saying the obvious:
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What's obvious is that you are here to sabotage the Democrats.

It's pretty clear from 2016 and more recent polls that the word "socialism" hasn't been as successfully vilified by the right as I would have guessed. Sanders still polls well among both Democrats and the electorate at large. I intend to be open minded on this matter.
 
RecoveringYuppy said:
What's obvious is that you are here to sabotage the Democrats.

It's pretty clear from 2016 and more recent polls that the word "socialism" hasn't been as successfully vilified by the right as I would have guessed. Sanders still polls well among both Democrats and the electorate at large. I intend to be open minded on this matter.
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In particular, the "socialism" actually supported by the left-wing part of the Democrats and the "socialism" vilified by right-wing propaganda are pretty close to two entirely different things, with the right-wing propagandists loudly trying to equate the two. Either way, Hickenlooper has pretty much no chance at all, by the look of it, and there's good reason for that.
 
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