Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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William Parcher said:
Panic buying happening now at stores throughout the West Coast. No, you will not find toilet paper or Clorox wipes. Hurry for canned foods.
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I usually buy my TP in bulk anyway, so I always have a supply on hand. But I would never consider it a top-level item in a crisis. I did actually go to WM last night and stocked up on canned goods. Lots of areas looked ransacked but I don't know if that was just the standard for that particular store.

There hasn't been a confirmed case yet in this state so there has not been a lot of concern as far as I've seen.
 
Meadmaker said:
Does anyone have reports of if coronavirus fears are affecting high school or college sports?

I have one tiny anecdote. This weekend was the opening weekend of the FIRST Robotics competitions season. One tradition is that when the last round of the tournament begins, the drive teams of the two competing alliances, about thirty total students, join each other on the center of the field for a pre-match handshake.

I didn't notice it at the time, but there was no pre-match handshake. On the main forum for FIRST discussions, that was pointed out that this happened at several events. I don't know if it was at all events. There was no "due to coronavirus...." announcement, but it just didn't happen like normal.

Our season closing world championship events are seven and eight weeks from now, in Houston and Detroit. (There are two events, both called "World Championship", but half the world goes to one, and half to the other.) There, thousands of students will be coming from around the world, although mostly the United States and Canada, to compete in one stadium, and interact a lot. We are a bit worried that Coronavirus fears could disrupt that event. We already know that the Chinese teams won't be coming, but in seven weeks there could be a lot more restrictions from a lot more places.

I wonder if events like the NCAA Final Four basketball tournament, or just regular high school and college events are under pressure to cancel events. I know that there are discussions about Olympics as well. The actual Olympics are still a ways away, but I would guess World Championships and other qualifying international events are going on either now, or in the next couple of months.
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Expect massive disruption to major sports events!

Here in Japan there have been numerous cancellations of events including for Olympic qualifying events. Many more such as the sumo tournament in Osaka, and pre-season baseball games, will be played behind closed doors. The Tokyo marathon that was run yesterday will only consisted of 200 athletes as 38,000 amateurs were told they couldn’t run (and were given no refund).

The Paris half marathon, also yesterday, was cancelled. North Korea’s Pyongyang marathon also cancelled. Italian Serie A matches also cancelled.

Unless there is some major seasonal variation, this is only just beginning and you can expect cancellations to be the norm. If you’re a fan of Liverpool F, C and have been looking forward finally seeing them win the Premier League then I think you could be about to miss out in the cruelest way.
 
William Parcher said:
Officials say it has been lurking wild in Washington State for weeks.
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I'll buy that - it all adds up and makes the maths work properly.

angrysoba said:
Expect massive disruption to major sports events!
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I said yesterday that I expected the remaining 6N games to be called off. Italy is definitely out, and by the weekend, I expect the UK numbers to be at the stage where they pull the plug.

angrysoba said:
If you’re a fan of Liverpool F, C and have been looking forward finally seeing them win the Premier League then I think you could be about to miss out in the cruelest way.
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Excuse me if I laugh about that.

I wonder if there's a rule about games being called off before the end of the season?
 
Trebuchet said:
I'm on the Olympic peninsula. Can we please shut down the ferry system, Hood Canal Bridge, and Tacoma Narrows Bridge?
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With a stray case in Federal Way, it might be too late.

I'm telling you though, when a fairly substantial outbreak and exposure risk is within a 10 mile radius, it changes one's perspective. If I would have known I could have driven further to buy supplies. Our Whole Foods is across the street from Overlake Hospital where one patient is and where the staff often come over on their breaks or at the end of their shifts, (think I said that upthread as well). I did some of my shopping there a couple days ago.

The median incubation in one study is only 4 days. That means we could already be several layers deep into this. I'll post a link.
 
William Parcher said:
Panic buying happening now at stores throughout the West Coast. No, you will not find toilet paper or Clorox wipes. Hurry for canned foods.
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The news media shows a couple stores, there are probably more than a few not yet affected by panic buying. But give it a few more days.
 
You guys are all catching up to where we were a week ago. Since our food has to leave your port before it gets to us, I think you guys will be restocked long before we will.

I'll be climbing up some coconut trees and by some crazy miracle, the avocado trees all over the island are exploding, like you have to have garbage bags to get them all!
 
angrysoba said:
North Korea’s Pyongyang marathon also cancelled. Italian Serie A matches also cancelled.
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That is fascinating. I'd think NK would be more epidemic-resistant than most places, but it is sandwiched between a couple of seriously affected countries, presumably with trade ties to China. It would be interesting to know,how internal discussions on that played out, and how it was announced to the public. I can't quite imagine that government admitting it's afraid of anything.
 
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.
 
The Atheist said:
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.
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That's not possible. There is no capacity to even test that many cases.
 
The Atheist said:
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.
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One expert on infectious diseases talks about a model created by the Gates Foundation for spread and expected numbers in a simulation they ran for a more infectious flu:

You have said that time and trust are critical to good epidemic management. What do you mean?
The delay between the frontline health workers noticing something unusual, in the form of an emerging disease, and that information travelling up the line to central decision-makers is critical. To illustrate that, a 2018 simulation that the Gates Foundation conducted of a flu pandemic estimated that there would be 28,000 after one month, 10 million after three months, and 33 million after six months. The virus used in that simulation was more contagious and deadly than Covid-19 – though they are both respiratory viruses – but the example shows how all epidemics grow exponentially. So if you can catch an epidemic in the first few weeks, it makes all the difference. As for trust, it’s critical to disseminate dispassionate, evidence-based information, and not to try to mislead the population. If you do, they will stop cooperating. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in China.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-q-and-a-laura-spinney?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
 
The Atheist said:
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.
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Check your maths. I think you are out by a factor of 10. It will take until 23 March to get a million cases. This depends on how fast you assume it is spreading. I assume a doubling in four days. But if it is any less I may have to consult you about new glasses.

But as someone has already pointed out, they may have stopped counting by then.
 
Coronavirus: Thirteen more cases confirmed in UK

Twelve more people in England and one in Scotland have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of UK cases to 36.

Scotland confirmed that its first patient was a Tayside resident who recently returned from Italy.

Three of the new cases in England were linked to a man from Surrey, who was the first to be infected within the UK.

It comes after Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK was still in the "containment" phase of the outbreak.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991
 
If you want to detect an outbreak of a disease BEFORE anyone else then you ask Google what are people asking it? If a known disease has as its first symptom blurry eyesight and people start googling blurry eyesight then it is evidence that this disease has started its outbreak. And this would be before doctors get consulted in bulk about blurry eyesight.

For blurry eyesight substitute something more realistic.
 
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