Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Twelve more cases in the UK today - so that's 35 total so far.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

I've been called to do Jury duty late April. I expect there's a good chance that courts may be closed down by then because they assemble lots of strangers together in close proximity. The pandemic might be in full force by then.
 
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Planigale said:
All fair comments. So I think not accurate but ball park; say an estimate of 0.1 to 1% mortality. Obviously varying on age, sex and underlying co-morbidity. Given an estimate of 80% of total population at risk of infection this gives estimates of total global deaths over the whole time course of the pandemic 5,000,000 to 50,000,000. (Assuming no effective intervention such as vaccine or drugs.)
In comparison annual deaths from other infectious diseases respiratory including flu 3,000,000 (0.5 million due to flu), TB 1,000,000, Diarrhoea 1,000,000, HIV 1,000,000. (These are very rounded estimates to the nearest million.)
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Yes, definitely serious. By the way, the paper you linked to before about the expected peak of the virus in England and Wales was interesting.

As they point out, of course, they don't really have a mortality rate, and the possible mechanisms that might change the course of the virus are seasonal effects.

I think we have to hope that the virus is somehow attenuated by seasonal changes. It seems to me (IANAE!), that most of the places where the virus has spread would usually be in conditions conducive to flu. They are all northern hemisphere. The one I was unsure of was Qom, in Iran, but according to this, the temperature is somewhere between 5 and 10 degrees in January and February.

If we see it rapidly spreading in the southern hemisphere then maybe nothing will stop it.
 
I'll reveal the source later, as well as de-anonymyzing it^ ...

"We put a priority on people's lives and health. Head Honcho has set up a task force to lead effective prevention and control. Under strong leadership we have taken swift and concerted action to contain the disease. Information has been released in an open and transparent manner. Other countries should learn from our experience; Head Honcho's personal guidance shows her great leadership capability. Trying to politicize the issue is not conducive to the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus pandemic."

^ Yeah, there are some small edits ... ;)
 
Planigale said:
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Given an estimate of 80% of total population at risk of infection
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For OOM estimates (or BOTEs if you prefer), 50%, 80%, and 100% are ~the same.

Is there any way to put a rational bound on this (% of total population at risk)?

Clearly it's not 1% or below. Nor <3%.

But is it closer to 10% than 30%? Or closer to 50% than 30%? If so, why?
 
Trump Tweets

Coronavirus: In addition to screening travelers “prior to boarding” from certain designated high risk countries, or areas within those countries, they will also be screened when they arrive in America. Thank you!
@VP @SecAzar @CDCgov @CDCDirector
 
Anyone else think only 4 cases of Coronavirus reported in Pakistan is unlikely ?
 
Does anyone have reports of if coronavirus fears are affecting high school or college sports?

I have one tiny anecdote. This weekend was the opening weekend of the FIRST Robotics competitions season. One tradition is that when the last round of the tournament begins, the drive teams of the two competing alliances, about thirty total students, join each other on the center of the field for a pre-match handshake.

I didn't notice it at the time, but there was no pre-match handshake. On the main forum for FIRST discussions, that was pointed out that this happened at several events. I don't know if it was at all events. There was no "due to coronavirus...." announcement, but it just didn't happen like normal.

Our season closing world championship events are seven and eight weeks from now, in Houston and Detroit. (There are two events, both called "World Championship", but half the world goes to one, and half to the other.) There, thousands of students will be coming from around the world, although mostly the United States and Canada, to compete in one stadium, and interact a lot. We are a bit worried that Coronavirus fears could disrupt that event. We already know that the Chinese teams won't be coming, but in seven weeks there could be a lot more restrictions from a lot more places.

I wonder if events like the NCAA Final Four basketball tournament, or just regular high school and college events are under pressure to cancel events. I know that there are discussions about Olympics as well. The actual Olympics are still a ways away, but I would guess World Championships and other qualifying international events are going on either now, or in the next couple of months.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Yep. The whole outbreak is only a couple miles away. Bellevue and Kirkland are next to each other. And I've been to Evergreen Hospital many times following up on a patient the police or fire were exposed to. Also, one of the patients is now in Overlake Hospital. That's in the Kaiser complex. I was a patient there last summer when I had a drug reaction. It's less than two miles away.

Worse, I have to go to Kaiser next week for labs and in a couple of weeks I have an appointment. I see them on a regular basis with my illness.

Even more bad news, a lot of employees from Overlake shop and bank across the street from the hospital, same place I shop and bank. They walk over on break.
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I'm on the Olympic peninsula. Can we please shut down the ferry system, Hood Canal Bridge, and Tacoma Narrows Bridge?
 
Panic buying happening now at stores throughout the West Coast. No, you will not find toilet paper or Clorox wipes. Hurry for canned foods.
 
Planigale said:
To put an opposing argument, if we look at the cruise liner Princess Diamond surveillance for infection was high, about 600 cases identified and 6 deaths; giving a 1% mortality rate accepting the passengers will be predominantly elderly.
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The Diamond Princess is a unique case:

Given the slow progress of the disease after infection and lag between infection and symptoms, I'm expecting the deaths from the Diamond Princess to increase a bit more. Since we know the actual infections from that "experiment" because of its unique nature, I expect the death rate to be between 1% and 2%. Since it skews toward an older population somewhat I expect we can extrapolate the overall death rate as between .5% and 1%.

This also suggests the Wuhan counts have missed around 100k to 200k infected peeps. Not from intentional underreporting but just from overwhelmed health care.
 
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Captain_Swoop said:
Anyone else think only 4 cases of Coronavirus reported in Pakistan is unlikely ?
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There's going to be bunches of countries that won't see it until it affects enough people to shift the death rates above that of the usual flu.
 
I keep wanting to ask if its "dose dependent"

It would help explain possibly differences in places like china and especially health care workers

By the way, what the hell is going on with the *crew* of the diamond princess? Was anyone tracking their infection rates closely?
 
Planigale said:
To put an opposing argument, if we look at the cruise liner Princess Diamond surveillance for infection was high, about 600 cases identified and 6 deaths; giving a 1% mortality rate accepting the passengers will be predominantly elderly. China reports 1,700 healthcare staff infected (again probably a highly surveilled population), with 6 deaths giving a 0.3% mortality in likely younger population.
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I don't think that's opposing - seems to be fairly much in line with what I wrote - we're over-estimating the death rate by under-estimating the case rate.

Captain_Swoop said:
Anyone else think only 4 cases of Coronavirus reported in Pakistan is unlikely ?
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About the same likelihood as India having zero since 31 January.

I think those kind of stats speak to the lower end of fatality scales as well - it might well be that people aren't dying of it in sufficient numbers to change the enormous death rates they have from pneumonia all the time.

They will be providing everywhere else a taste of it, though.
 
Countries that have low rates of confirmed infection are probably countries that doesn't do much testing due to a lack of testing kits.

As for Diamond Princess, isn't it also the case that the passengers represented the wealthier class of citizens? In my mind that means they will tend to be healthier than same age citizens who are less fortunate.
 
Ulf Nereng said:
Countries that have low rates of confirmed infection are probably countries that doesn't do much testing due to a lack of testing kits.
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No question. When you add in secrecy and incompetence, like Iran, you have a recipe for disaster.

I'm confident their current cases of 978 is several thousand short.

Ulf Nereng said:
As for Diamond Princess, isn't it also the case that the passengers represented the wealthier class of citizens? In my mind that means they will tend to be healthier than same age citizens who are less fortunate.
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Maybe.

Going by cruise ship passengers I've seen over the past few years, I expect Type II diabetes is rampant among them, and that's very bad karma for covid-19.
 
Rhode Island reports first case.

Two cases in Washington State are found to be genetically connected. This means it's widespread in the wild in this region.
 
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