Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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On the plus side, dying laughing at all the "European audio" companies somehow unable to deliver their microphones and magical placebo recording devices....Ahhh foolmewunz if you could be here with the last laugh right now :(
 
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My ex-girlfriend sent me photos of her with a mask on at the airport somewhere in East Asia, arriving from Chicago.

Makes me a bit uneasy.
 
Venom said:
My ex-girlfriend sent me photos of her with a mask on at the airport somewhere in East Asia, arriving from Chicago.

Makes me a bit uneasy.
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Okay...

...anyway, the sumo tournament that takes place in Osaka every March has been called off.

The Japanese government is asking all event-holders to "think about" cancelling events for the next two weeks.

A lot of schools are now making attendance optional, and some are closing altogether.
 
dudalb said:
And, frankly, how it originated is sort of a side issue at this point. We have more urgent problems to deal with.
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I know, right. Yesterday I saw a news report about it being urgent to find the animal source for this strain. I laughed, guess that reporter saw the Dustin Hoffman movie Outbreak where he supposedly found the source and they magically made a vaccine or something from it.
 
News here is reporting someone in Hokkaido has died.

Hokkaido has decided to close all schools and events for the next two weeks. Kanagawa, where another person has died from the virus, has done the same.
 
marting said:
Ars-Technica has a new article covering Bruce Aylward's comments after returning from China.

Good piece.


https://arstechnica.com/science/202...n-us-not-if-but-when-and-how-severe-cdc-says/
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I've been watching some of Aylward's talk here:



I suppose the assessment is much more upbeat that I would have expected.

In the piece you linked to...

Aylward also noted that based on the large amount of disease screening that’s been done in China so far, there does not seem to be a huge number of mild cases that are going undetected. And while asymptomatic spread of disease may happen, it does not seem to be a driver of the outbreak, he said. This assessment may dampen concern that the virus will become a pandemic by spreading widely in communities from unrecognized asymptomatic or mild cases. So far, household-level transmission appears to be the main driver of the outbreak, he said.
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The Atheist said:
I'd like to think I'm being realistic rather than paranoid. I'm not quoting any numbers that aren't established and reported by health officials and experts.

<snip>
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No reason why you cannot be both. The rest depends on definitions of words. An issue I am not going to get dragged into.


dudalb said:
That is just it:Corona Virus would make a lousy biological weapon.
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See my response here http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=13001797#post13001797



Skeptic Ginger said:
You work it out:

It only takes one person unloading cargo to spread it to a dock worker.
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Let us see.
- Crew isolated from the rest of the world for the time it takes to go between one port to the next
- Maybe, when at port, they live like hermits so they cannot get the virus, let alone spread it to others
- Health checks on arrival
- Crew and the islanders do not go near each other, so they could not pass it on even if they had the virus
- Islanders paranoid (think attitudes like The Atheist's are being slack) about the issue
- Islanders getting advice from people who know what they are talking about
- I do not think I need go on.


Yes, I agree, even with the best precautions it could get to Hawaii as everyone is only human and they make mistakes. But with suitable precautions (much better than the above) it would be very unlikely to spread to Hawaii. They actually need to decide that they will do this now or it will be too late.

As for other islands they also can take similar precautions.
 
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marting said:
Ars-Technica has a new article covering Bruce Aylward's comments after returning from China.
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Yeah, good piece. Ars Technica has been on it right from the start - one of my favourite sites.

Nice to see a positive spin from an expert who's been on the ground.

Just a note for the China-haters that have been active in the thread - from the link:

While Aylward was impressed with the Chinese government response, he noted early in the briefing that he was also taken by the response of Chinese citizens—their cooperation and individual sense of duty to try to help quash the outbreak. “We spoke to hundreds of people... and they all shared this sense of responsibility, accountability to be part of this,” Aylward said, noting that there didn’t appear to be any government pressure or presence forcing that sense of duty. People were adhering to quarantine protocols on their own, he noted, and medical staff were volunteering to go to the hardest hit areas in Hubei province.
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Already I’m getting ads for various kinds of super face-masks that are fortified with various things and guaranteed to stop viruses....
I would say that panic has not struck the university here, despite our nearly 40% Asian student population. I don’t see any more kids than usual running around with masks and such.
 
Customers in El Salvador are asking our regional rep for Central and South America if we have any disinfectants that can be applied to a large area by fogger. The problem is that nobody reputable does. A number of years ago the EPA contacted every company with fogging directions on their labels and required them to either submit new efficacy data using a newly developed testing protocol to show their product actually worked when fogged, or remove fogging from their label. There were concerns that fogging wouldn't apply enough active ingredient to surfaces to achieve the same efficacy as direct application.
I found one product approved for fogging, but when applied by fog it only kills two specific bacteria and clostridium difficile spores. Killing viruses still requires directly applying the liquid.
 
One of the problems with the numbers in Japan, is that so few people appear to have been tested.

According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, only 1061 people have been PCR-tested for the virus.

Of those, according to the statistics here, 149 have tested positive.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html

BUT... these numbers are certain to be far higher.

Hokkaido is one of the main clusters, and have had one person die in Hakodate at the southern tip. But many of the other cases are spread out all over the prefecture, hundreds of kilometres from each other.

Apparently one person found to have the virus was on a trip from...wait for it...Osaka!

Well, there is no way that the official figures of 1 (one!) case in Osaka is real. This is one of the most visited cities from tourists from China, and it has very crowded public transportation.
 
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