Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[Dr.Sid]

Not sure what you are asking, but assuming you want to know if any epidemiological studies were done to find the actual denominator of SARS cases?

Here's one population survey:
CDC: SARS-CoV Antibody Prevalence in All Hong Kong Patient Contacts


If you meant something else, let me know.

I'm talking about Wikipedia numbers. Which are 8,098 cases for SARS. I think this number means number of confirmed cases, who sought medical attention, and does not include antibody study. So it's fair to compare them to Wuhan virus numbers.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm talking about Wikipedia numbers. Which are 8,098 cases for SARS. I think this number means number of confirmed cases, who sought medical attention, and does not include antibody study. So it's fair to compare them to Wuhan virus numbers.

So you ignored my post and the facts then?

There were almost no mild cases of SARS. So, no it is not valid to compare the two at this point.

Why are you trying to make Wuhan Caronavirus worse than the evidence supports instead of making an effort to understand the science?

 

[Dr.Sid]

So you ignored my post and the facts then?

There were almost no mild cases of SARS. So, no it is not valid to compare the two at this point.

Why are you trying to make Wuhan Caronavirus worse than the evidence supports instead of making an effort to understand the science?

I'm making it worse because it will leave more dead. Possibly several times more.

 

[The Atheist]

I base the numbers of 'confirmed' cases. Which is the same metric used in SARS. It's people who sought medical attention. Mild cases, people who didn't
seek medical attention, are simply unknown number. So it's pointless for predictions and comparisons.

Not at all - if you want to know a real mortality rate, you need to count all the cases.

Let's face it, even at 0.3%, if half the people in the world catch it, you'd have 10,000,000 dead. Whichever way you look at it, it's a big deal.

Good analysis and expert opinion from Al Jazeera here: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2020/02/response-coronavirus-200202191908812.html

The numbers outside China are still encouraging.

 

[The Atheist]

And something to tuck in your hat in the meantime: https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pre...-ongoing-response-to-the-2019-new-coronavirus

 

[a_unique_person]

Gilead? Does this virus render women infertile?

 

[Roboramma]

I'm talking about Wikipedia numbers. Which are 8,098 cases for SARS. I think this number means number of confirmed cases, who sought medical attention, and does not include antibody study. So it's fair to compare them to Wuhan virus numbers.

It's clear that the total number of SARS cases (mild or not) is very close to the number of confirmed cases, as was later found through antibody studies.

It's not clear how many unconfirmed cases of the coronavirus there are, so comparing the number of confirmed cases of SARS to the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus doesn't make sense.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The National (Canadian News) just interviewed someone in China that could not be seen in the ED. They speculated no test kits.

So that's another reason to estimate there are many unrecognized cases. China doesn't have the capacity to test everyone.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Trump has declared that he has "shut the virus down"

Problem solved, thread closed.

 

[rjh01]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-evacuation-of-australians-in-wuhan-under-way

According to flight-tracking site FlightRadar 24, the plane carrying the first Australian evacuees from China landed at RAAF base Learmonth, in Exmouth, Western Australia shortly after 4pm (AWST).

The flight’s crew will not be required to be quarantined after the flight. Murphy said on Sunday the measures put in place to protect the crew should be sufficient to avoid the need for quarantine.

After the government initially said Australian citizens and permanent residents would be charged about $1,000 each for transport and accommodation, those evacuated from Wuhan will not pay anything.

I suggest anyone who is interested in the topic read the link before making a comment. The article covers a lot of ground.

Edit. Another article on a very simular topic
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...aff-alarmed-wuhan-flight-crew-not-quarantined

 

[casebro]

7-8% fatality of hospitalized patients- how does that compare to flu? or other viral pneumonias?

I've got an idea-Want to avoid diseases that are the bane of all man kind? Stay out of China.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I've got an idea-Want to avoid diseases that are the bane of all man kind? Stay out of China.

Will do.
Instead, I've ordered a box of virus samples online, so I can make my own cure.
Not that expensive if you don't bother paying for biohazard shipping.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Ok, I won't call confirmed/dead mortality.

 

[JeanTate]

Trump has declared that he has "shut the virus down"

Problem solved, thread closed.

He forgot to mention that the Wuhan coronavirus will cause a global recession, and as a result he will be resoundingly defeated in November.

 

[JeanTate]

You don't know what you are talking about.

I'm talking about mortality. SARS had mortality of 9.6%. That is number of deaths / number of confirmed cases.
Wuhan virus is it least as deadly, as showed initial study on first 99 cases two days back, of which 11 died, 31 was released, and 57 were still hospitalized.
Number of dead compared to number of released also suggest the mortality is high.
When computing mortality, unconfirmed cases are ignored by definition. That's unknown factor.
Also, as long as the infection is developing, you can't just take actual number of dead and compare it with actual number of cases, which would give you 2%. Those 2 numbers don't corresponds to the same set of patients. Wuhan virus can take up to 2 weeks to kill you, so you have to compare actual number of deaths with number of confirmed cases 1-2 weeks back. That will give you much larger numbers, certainly more than 10%.

Not good.

SARS is over, the Wuhan coronavirus is not.

There is a time delay between infection and symptoms (possibly infinite, for some). There is a delay between symptoms and hospitalization (ditto). Between hospitalization and death.

It’s quite a challenge to accurately factor those delays in, to any analysis aiming to produce robust estimates of “deadliness”.

There’s more ...

As with most things human, learning comes with experience. So we can pretty confidently expect better and earlier detection, better and earlier treatments, ... and fewer deaths (relatively speaking).

Of course, surprises may still be in store, but it’s likely the kind of crude mortality rates you seem to be calculating will, in the end, prove to be too high.

 

[catsmate]

We know where it came from. why invent CTs?

Because some people need to believe in giant, over-complicated, conspiracies.

 

[catsmate]

Speaking of being in the library, there must be 10 inconsiderate people in here right now with disgusting coughs. I'm going to suggest they put hand sanitizer and masks with a sign at the door like the clinics all have.

If you want people to wear masks you should put up signs forbidding them, cith a CCTV camera icon. Play on their paranoia...

 

[catsmate]

So .. none ?

 

[catsmate]

You know, there has been so much media coverage that I would bet there are articles saying that the cold and SARS are coronaviruses. MERS is a coronavirus too.

??? SARS is a coronovirus. The term applies to a group of virii seven of which effect human health, 2019-NCoV, MERS and SARS along with the milder 229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1 virii.

 

[catsmate]

Do hand sanitizers work?

Yes.

CDC recommends washing hands with soap and water whenever possible because handwashing reduces the amounts of all types of germs and chemicals on hands. But if soap and water are not available, using a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol can help you avoid getting sick and spreading germs to others. The guidance for effective handwashing and use of hand sanitizer in community settings was developed based on data from a number of studies.