Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[Belz...]

How To Prevent Coronavirus? Start Smoking

"non-smokers are nearly 6 times more likely than smokers and ex-smokers to become infected."

I haven´t smoked in like 20 years but if it really is like they say, I might get a few packets of Cutter´s Choice to be ready in case Covid-19 gets here...

Isn't that the exact opposite of what we heard last week?

 

[Red Baron Farms]

That is truly bizarre.



If you follow the link to the actual research paper, it appears to be impeccably written, using real evidence and stuff. Written by a long list of highly qualified researchers, the research is in depth and quantified at every level.

Seems legit as hell to me.

Just to throw into the mix - the jury is still well and truly out on what happens next - a nice, independent and informative piece with very expert opinions here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nd-experts-give-predictions?srnd=premium-asia

Which includes this chilling paragraph:

I thought this was a skeptic site? Everyone here should know how to pick apart a piece of propaganda put out by the merchants of doubt. I'll give you a hint:
Only one out of 25 Chinese women smoke.
More than half of all adult men in China are regular smokers.

Now go back and read the link again closely. See the switch?

Assuming that there is a population N1 (e.g. city of Wuhan) that are half smokers and half non-smokers

The study can be perfectly fine, it's the article that is certainly flawed. The same technique is used by the merchants of doubt with regard to global warming and organic agriculture and any number of other issues where industry can pay for "results" to promote their business interests. The techniques are so similar that easily spotted patterns like the above are throughout.

More info can be found here:
MERCHANTS OF DOUBT
How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming

 

[Dr.Sid]

This is certainly the case. The study itself says quite different things:

Yes, 85% of the patients are non-smokers. But check this table. It's simple combination of numbers from the study, but it shows % inside that group

group / severe / end-point (+- death)

non-smoker: 14.4% 4.7%
ex-smoker: 42.9% 23.8%
now-smoker: 21.2% 12.4%

In other words, if you are non-smoker, you have 2.6 times better chance, that you will not die. I wouldn't count ex-smokers, as their number is relatively small, so the numbers are just off.

 

[angrysoba]

This is certainly the case. The study itself says quite different things:

Yes, 85% of the patients are non-smokers. But check this table. It's simple combination of numbers from the study, but it shows % inside that group

group / severe / end-point (+- death)

non-smoker: 14.4% 4.7%
ex-smoker: 42.9% 23.8%
now-smoker: 21.2% 12.4%

In other words, if you are non-smoker, you have 2.6 times better chance, that you will not die. I wouldn't count ex-smokers, as their number is relatively small, so the numbers are just off.

Yes, I was going to say the same thing.

You have to look at the percentage of each group (non-smokers and current-smokers) who are severe or who have reached "endpoint":

The primary composite endpoint was the admission to intensive care unit (ICU), or mechanical
ventilation, or death. Secondary endpoints comprised mortality rate, the time from symptom onset to
the composite endpoint and each of its component. Because clinical observations were still ongoing,
fixed time frame (i.e. within 28 days) was not applied to these endpoints.

Judging by those numbers, smokers do worse.

Also, please note a couple more things here:

1) Smoking is on the table because it is a "significant risk factor", according to the paper.
2) The dog that didn't bark - there is no discussion of smoking in the paper, other than the raw figures from the table and the aforementioned fact that it is a risk factor. If smoking somehow conferred some kind of protection, the authors would have mentioned it. The fact they didn't address it clearly suggests they didn't find anything worth mentioning.
3) The source that was linked to above appears to be a smoking advocate site. In other words, the guy has clearly cherry-picked something that furthers his agenda and misrepresented the results. What a shocker!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Just continuing reporting on the situation here: went out for a walk today and I noticed that all the restaurants are closed. They all have a public notice posted on their doors. I didn't bother reading it, it's pretty clear what it said.

(By all I mean at least a dozen that I walked past)

One of the steps in the epidemic planning in this county once the infection has broken out and can't be contained is to close all public gathering places from schools to movie theaters. Restaurants would be closed here too.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Exposure to heated gas kills the virus? Maybe just inhaling heated air would offer some protection.


It seems highly unlikely to me, too, but it's one conceivable way that this seemingly improbable result could occur.

If that were the case you'd burn your throat and lungs with every puff.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I thought this was a skeptic site? Everyone here should know how to pick apart a piece of propaganda put out by the merchants of doubt. I'll give you a hint:
Only one out of 25 Chinese women smoke.
More than half of all adult men in China are regular smokers.

Now go back and read the link again closely. See the switch?


The study can be perfectly fine, it's the article that is certainly flawed. The same technique is used by the merchants of doubt with regard to global warming and organic agriculture and any number of other issues where industry can pay for "results" to promote their business interests. The techniques are so similar that easily spotted patterns like the above are throughout.

More info can be found here:
MERCHANTS OF DOUBT
How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming

Excellent post! I nominated it.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A Japanese official is claiming this morning that all the new cases on the quarantined ship were infected before the quarantine. This is as unlikely a claim as that smoking is somehow protective.

 

[JeanTate]

A Japanese official is claiming this morning that all the new cases on the quarantined ship were infected before the quarantine. This is as unlikely a claim as that smoking is somehow protective.

It seems that the ship was adequately quarantined (no one not on it were infected by someone on it), but not people on it (some people on the ship who were infected later infected others on the ship, who were not initially infected).

In hindsight, this should not be surprising ... those on the ship had no training on how, or necessary equipment, to set up and maintain quarantine conditions.

 

[pipelineaudio]

The ship's handling is one thing, the japanese government just letting em out into public is a whole nother thing, like gigantically different issue

 

[The Atheist]

If ever proof were needed the virus is out and about outside China, Iran just gave it to the world.

Having recorded no cases of Covid-19, they suddenly have two cases, both of which have been fatal - an elderly couple from Qom. It appears to be famous for its mosques, so hardly a place many Chinese would be visiting. The couple obviously caught it from someone in Iran, which had zero cases beforehand.

I'm still looking at the three cured cases in India in total disbelief. There will be hundreds of people with it, if not thousands.

I think hospitals worldwide should be checking all pneumonia patients starting right now - the number of asymptomatic or very mild cases has allowed the disease to slip right under the radar.

The number of confirmed cases outside China has doubled every seven days for the past three weeks.

 

[JeanTate]

If ever proof were needed the virus is out and about outside China, Iran just gave it to the world.

Having recorded no cases of Covid-19, they suddenly have two cases, both of which have been fatal - an elderly couple from Qom. It appears to be famous for its mosques, so hardly a place many Chinese would be visiting. The couple obviously caught it from someone in Iran, which had zero cases beforehand.

Given your posts on the unreliability of info from China, wouldn’t some skepticism about info from Iran also be in order?

Also, given how widespread BRI projects are, why would you be surprised that Qom may have had visitors from China?

I'm still looking at the three cured cases in India in total disbelief. There will be hundreds of people with it, if not thousands.

I think hospitals worldwide should be checking all pneumonia patients starting right now - the number of asymptomatic or very mild cases has allowed the disease to slip right under the radar.

The number of confirmed cases outside China has doubled every seven days for the past three weeks.

From what I’ve read, apart from the Diamond Princess, local transmission (i.e. not from someone from China) is clearly established in Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong only (interestingly, several clusters are connected with religious gatherings).

Do you have info otherwise?

 

[angrysoba]

A Japanese official is claiming this morning that all the new cases on the quarantined ship were infected before the quarantine. This is as unlikely a claim as that smoking is somehow protective.

Other people here such as the medical expert from Kobe Medical University mentioned up thread say the government’s handling of this is a mess. In particular he talked about the way in which the crew had been instructed to move between red and green zones of infected and non-infected wearing protective clothing in the red zones and changing and using sanitizer before returning to the green zone. Only problem is that the red and green zones are mixed up on the ship and it is never clear which parts are which.

 

[arthwollipot]

This part was pretty concerning:

Another visit to the hospital and a CT scan showed he had most likely contracted the virus and it had spread to his lungs, however, doctors didn't deem his case severe enough to use testing facilities to confirm he was infected, so he returned home.

That's just triage.

 

[The Atheist]

Given your posts on the unreliability of info from China, wouldn’t some skepticism about info from Iran also be in order?

Yeah, maybe Iran's pulling a scam of some kind...

It's been reliably reported, Iran has made an official announcement they tested positive, and there doesn't seem to be any mileage in making false claims of infections causing death.

Also, if you look at what I've typed, I've generally praised China for its handling of the disease, but we know for sure their figures aren't 100% reliable seeing as how they keep changing.

Also, given how widespread BRI projects are, why would you be surprised that Qom may have had visitors from China?

Where did I say or infer I would be surprised Chinese go there?

I typed this:

so hardly a place many Chinese would be visiting

I'll stand by that - I doubt many Chinese go there, but given their ubiquity in the world I'm sure there are some. I think it's fairly certain that if two people have died of it, there will be others with the disease nearby.

From what I’ve read, apart from the Diamond Princess, local transmission (i.e. not from someone from China) is clearly established in Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong only (interestingly, several clusters are connected with religious gatherings).

Do you have info otherwise?

What other info do you need? The maths is what it is - cases outside China are doubling every seven days.

In the case of India - also Mongolia, and several other countries that share a land border with China - I find the idea that they haven't had a single case in three weeks venturing into very unlikely territory. Singapore, South Korea and the cruise ship show that it's pretty damned contagious.

Have a talk to an Indian about India (a Member of the Kerala Parliament): https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3050988/india-coronavirus-catastrophe-waiting-happen

Lab testing facilities are few and far between: though facilities were expanded since the H1N1 (swine flu) virus threat arose a decade ago, samples from Kerala are being sent to a virology lab in Pune which remains the only one in this vast country capable of testing for the virus.

 

[The Atheist]

And on the other front of the disease - the economic one, the fallout continues to grow.

We've seen Apple advising reduced earnings, layoffs on both sides of the supply chain from China - including as far afield as Kiwi loggers - the tourist industry worldwide taking a huge hit, and airlines are now chipping in with not just the cancelled flights, but massive reductions is demand as people don't want to be shut in a sardine can with potential vectors of Covid-19.

I'm highly surprised the MSCI index isn't showing a bit more red. I'd call it a safe bet to punt on it going much deeper red in the next 3 weeks. I'll be talking to my broker shortly.

 

[lobosrul5]

And on the other front of the disease - the economic one, the fallout continues to grow.

We've seen Apple advising reduced earnings, layoffs on both sides of the supply chain from China - including as far afield as Kiwi loggers - the tourist industry worldwide taking a huge hit, and airlines are now chipping in with not just the cancelled flights, but massive reductions is demand as people don't want to be shut in a sardine can with potential vectors of Covid-19.

I'm highly surprised the MSCI index isn't showing a bit more red. I'd call it a safe bet to punt on it going much deeper red in the next 3 weeks. I'll be talking to my broker shortly.

And AAPL stock just went up again... the US stock market is just floating on air I don't get it. In normal times we'd be in major correct territory.

 

[JeanTate]

Yeah, maybe Iran's pulling a scam of some kind...

It's been reliably reported, Iran has made an official announcement they tested positive, and there doesn't seem to be any mileage in making false claims of infections causing death.

<snip>

Yeah, nothing until two deaths; no mild cases, no people from China who tested +ve, etc.

Odd.

What other info do you need? The maths is what it is - cases outside China are doubling every seven days.

Well, by far the greatest numbers of infected people in China, deaths, etc are, and have been, in Hubei province. And from what I’ve read, there are very few “local” clusters outside Hubei (i.e. significant transmission beyond people who have travelled from Hubei, and those living with a locally infected person); more specifically, the numbers of infected people in border provinces (e.g. Yunan, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia) is low ... except for Guangdong and Heilongjiang. So the historical relatively low numbers of people who have returned home after New Year, from Hubei, to countries like Nepal or Myanmar, seems consistent with low/zero infections reported there.

Contrast that with the Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea (even the US, and Australia).

Modulo uncertainty over less common transmission routes, e.g. leaky sewage pipes, the continued spread of Covid-19 outside China (or more specifically Hubei province) will depend on infected people from Hubei traveling there, and establishing and expanding local clusters.

So one’s concern should be on such travelers (mostly strongly constrained) and local clusters (which are in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore).

Gross, aggregate, numbers can be misleading.

In the case of India - also Mongolia, and several other countries that share a land border with China - I find the idea that they haven't had a single case in three weeks venturing into very unlikely territory. Singapore, South Korea and the cruise ship show that it's pretty damned contagious.

Have a talk to an Indian about India (a Member of the Kerala Parliament): https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3050988/india-coronavirus-catastrophe-waiting-happen

Yeah, it’s a big concern, that infections are being missed.

 

[The Atheist]

... uncertainty over less common transmission routes, e.g. leaky sewage pipes,...

I've mentioned that possibility a few times, and since SARS spread that way, you'd have to rate it as possible.

... the continued spread of Covid-19 outside China (or more specifically Hubei province) will depend on infected people from Hubei traveling there, and establishing and expanding local clusters.

So one’s concern should be on such travelers (mostly strongly constrained) and local clusters (which are in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore).

There still seems to be a bit of disconnect with how easily it spread on the ship compared to provinces outside Hubei. We're certainly nowhere near having all the facts yet.

 

[The Atheist]

Further on the financial side, Oxford economics has noted that a full-scale pandemic will cost the global economy over a trillion bucks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-could-cost-global-economy-1tn-in-lost-output


Sounds light to me.