Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Skeptic Ginger said:
Re the cruise ship in Japan:
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The number has increased since then...

Japanese health officials say 88 more people on a quarantined cruise ship have tested positive for the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases from the ship to 542.
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NHK

Today is the due date for the quarantine of the ship to end.

That said, there can be obvious reasons why that might be a bad idea.

As far as I know, most people have not been tested, and if there is ongoing transmission, then the quarantine term is meaningless.
 
The news here is saying that 500 people will disembark from the cruise liner today.

Apparently they are just going to get on public transport and head home.

I hope they distribute T-shirts that say, "Kiss Me, I'm back from the Diamond Princess!"
 
angrysoba said:
The number has increased since then...



NHK

Today is the due date for the quarantine of the ship to end.

That said, there can be obvious reasons why that might be a bad idea.

As far as I know, most people have not been tested, and if there is ongoing transmission, then the quarantine term is meaningless.
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I certainly read somewhere that everybody is being tested, again and again. But there is time between test and results (like 2 days ?), and until the tests are back, you are still in contact with other potentials. So it's meaningless indeed.
 
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Looks like in China new confirmed cases and recovery rates are roughly equivalent at 2K/day. If the number of active cases is stable there's some hope that the medical systems won't be totally overwhelmed. Or maybe not.
 
Maybe old news ...

I read a report of an interview with a US doctor (GP-like?) who was on the cruise ship holed up in Japan; helped me understand why Covid-19 was not contained ...

Also, a scary report that there are rare cases of people being infected, showing ~zero symptoms, and remaining infectious for ~20 days (not 14).

And, good news, a treatment regimen used in Shanghai leads to fairly robust, speedy recovery (details?).
 
Kentaro Iwata, a specialist in infectious diseases at Kobe University Hospital in western Japan who spent several hours on the luxury cruise liner on Tuesday, told the Guardian that passengers cleared of the virus should continue to be monitored for another two weeks in case they develop symptoms of Covid-19.

He told us:

It is a good idea to allow people to disembark because conditions on the ship are dangerous, but it is possible that some people who recently tested negative could turn out to be positive.

Certainly those who are due to leave should not be allowed to wander around freely. They have to be monitored so they can quickly receive medical treatment if they show symptoms.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...rincess-china-business-death-toll-latest-news
 
Also from the Guardian updates:

Second death recorded in Hong Kong
A second person has died from Covid-19 in Hong Kong, according to the South China Morning Post.

The 70-year-old man had underlying health problems and was declared dead on Wednesday morning.

He had visited the Chinese mainland in January.

The territory has 62 confirmed cases.
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sphenisc said:
Looks like in China new confirmed cases and recovery rates are roughly equivalent at 2K/day. If the number of active cases is stable there's some hope that the medical systems won't be totally overwhelmed. Or maybe not.
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Except for the tiny problem that no other country is going to be able to take the extreme measures China did. Even then, their health system has been overwhelmed and I don't know of anywhere else capable of launching an entire hospital in a fortnight.

If the virus breaks out to the same degree it has in China, things will be much, much worse than they have been there. Christ, every 'flu season I read non-stop stories about over-crowded hospitals, and that's with significant percentages vaccinated.
 
How To Prevent Coronavirus? Start Smoking

"non-smokers are nearly 6 times more likely than smokers and ex-smokers to become infected."

I haven´t smoked in like 20 years but if it really is like they say, I might get a few packets of Cutter´s Choice to be ready in case Covid-19 gets here...
 
Abooga said:
How To Prevent Coronavirus? Start Smoking

"non-smokers are nearly 6 times more likely than smokers and ex-smokers to become infected."

I haven´t smoked in like 20 years but if it really is like they say, I might get a few packets of Cutter´s Choice to be ready in case Covid-19 gets here...
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This has not been peer reviewed. Doubt if it would ever be.
 
Abooga said:
"non-smokers are nearly 6 times more likely than smokers and ex-smokers to become infected."
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That is truly bizarre.

rjh01 said:
This has not been peer reviewed. Doubt if it would ever be.
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If you follow the link to the actual research paper, it appears to be impeccably written, using real evidence and stuff. Written by a long list of highly qualified researchers, the research is in depth and quantified at every level.

Seems legit as hell to me.

Just to throw into the mix - the jury is still well and truly out on what happens next - a nice, independent and informative piece with very expert opinions here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nd-experts-give-predictions?srnd=premium-asia

Which includes this chilling paragraph:

“We are just getting started,” he said. “If this spreads around the world, this will be just south of the 1918 pandemic,” he said, referring to the pandemic flu that killed millions a century ago. “The next three weeks are going to be critical.”
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Just continuing reporting on the situation here: went out for a walk today and I noticed that all the restaurants are closed. They all have a public notice posted on their doors. I didn't bother reading it, it's pretty clear what it said.

(By all I mean at least a dozen that I walked past)
 
Roboramma said:
Just continuing reporting on the situation here: went out for a walk today and I noticed that all the restaurants are closed. They all have a public notice posted on their doors. I didn't bother reading it, it's pretty clear what it said.

(By all I mean at least a dozen that I walked past)
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Yeah, how things go when the people get back into mixing will be interesting to say the least.

You can only shut things down for so long.
____________________________________

Meanwhile, with now thousands of survivors, stories are coming out about having lived through it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/...-in-china-pain-tortured-every-part-of-my-body
 
The Atheist said:
Meanwhile, with now thousands of survivors, stories are coming out about having lived through it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/...-in-china-pain-tortured-every-part-of-my-body
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This part was pretty concerning:
Another visit to the hospital and a CT scan showed he had most likely contracted the virus and it had spread to his lungs, however, doctors didn't deem his case severe enough to use testing facilities to confirm he was infected, so he returned home.
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The Atheist said:
That is truly bizarre.



If you follow the link to the actual research paper, it appears to be impeccably written, using real evidence and stuff. Written by a long list of highly qualified researchers, the research is in depth and quantified at every level.

Seems legit as hell to me.
<snip>
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I stand by what I said. It includes these words

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
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It might be the start of a nobel prize winning paper. Or it could be written by highly qualified researchers who have made a huge mistake. Or it could be something else. Until it has been peer reviewed we cannot say. All I know is that saying that smokers are less likely to catch this virus is truly bizarre and so puts a question mark on the conclusions of the paper.

Edit. Also alarming is this
The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days).
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Does that mean that people who go into quarantine should be locked up for 24 days, instead of 2 weeks? Otherwise someone might go through quarantine healthy but still have the virus.
 
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Peer review isn't magic. It's just someone else with expertise in the field vetting the paper (and potentially a back and forth process for errors to be corrected). It's possible to read a paper that's still undergoing the review process and determine for yourself whether or not it's conclusions are valid.

I agree that it seems extraordinary that smoking would offer protection, and as a good Bayesian put the probability that it's correct pretty low. I haven't read the paper though.
 
Roboramma said:
Peer review isn't magic. It's just someone else with expertise in the field vetting the paper (and potentially a back and forth process for errors to be corrected). It's possible to read a paper that's still undergoing the review process and determine for yourself whether or not it's conclusions are valid.

I agree that it seems extraordinary that smoking would offer protection, and as a good Bayesian put the probability that it's correct pretty low. I haven't read the paper though.
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Table D in the original preprint shows that there is no difference between smokers and non-smokers. P values of 0.29 and 0.59. Is this also saying that smokers are not adversely affected?
 
Roboramma said:
Peer review isn't magic. It's just someone else with expertise in the field vetting the paper (and potentially a back and forth process for errors to be corrected). It's possible to read a paper that's still undergoing the review process and determine for yourself whether or not it's conclusions are valid.

I agree that it seems extraordinary that smoking would offer protection, and as a good Bayesian put the probability that it's correct pretty low. I haven't read the paper though.
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Exposure to heated gas kills the virus? Maybe just inhaling heated air would offer some protection.


It seems highly unlikely to me, too, but it's one conceivable way that this seemingly improbable result could occur.
 
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