Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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The Atheist said:
No, but there are hundreds of thousands, of not millions of Chinese working and conducting business in Africa.
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Yes, but how many of them are living there long term and how many are shuttling back and forth between Africa and China?

(Currently there are actually a couple of "suspected cases" in Angola and Sudan.)

Long-term residents of China are not going to have had the same chance of exposure to the new coronavirus compared with tourists.

If you look at SARS, you can also see that there was only ONE case in Africa, and none in South America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

For the most part, this virus seems to have around the same kind of patterns of infection, in terms of the countries affected, as SARS.
 
Tencent accidentally (or via leak) showing real numbers?

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths

Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

...

Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.
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https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
 
Giordano said:
"Flying nationals out of China..." Somehow I suspect you gathered my meaning without me spelling it out in detail.: ) Glad I could amuse you. Other posts provided some useful information to me.
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I still haven't gathered your meaning. The full quote was:

"I have found it interesting that flying nationals out of China to their home countries is an evacuation and is approved, even arranged by their native countries, whereas banning Chinese citizens from traveling in the same way"

"Banning Chinese citizens from traveling in the same way" could mean either "banning Chinese citizens from flying out of China" or "banning Chinese citizens from flying to their home country".

I'm not looking for you to amuse me. I'm just trying to parse out what exactly is the nature of your concern.
 
dudalb said:
This, China fudging the number I can buy, but no way could they could cover up something like people falling dead in the streets.
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Despite this reality the Usual Suspects are still promoting such nonsense, often using it to pimp their money making schemes.
 
carlosy said:
Tencent accidentally (or via leak) showing real numbers?


https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
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Tencent, the China conglomerate holding company? How would they obtain the accurate numbers? Particularly if the Chinese government is suppressing the actual statistics? Is there some secret organization that has contacts throughout China with doctors and families that can tally each infection and each death, making certain they don't count any more than once? Despite the quarantines, the anarchy, and the animosity of the authorities?

Frankly I doubt the official numbers are very accurate but the Tencent numbers cited seem to be absurdly high. Particularly the figures for the numbers of deaths. A mortality rate of nearly 16% would be hard to hide.
 
catsmate said:
Despite this reality the Usual Suspects are still promoting such nonsense, often using it to pimp their money making schemes.
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These type of fear techniques can easily be used to manipulate the financial markets in ways to make money off certain stocks without having to offer a particular money making scheme oneself. Probably hard to trace, too. I wonder how much of that is going on.
 
catsmate said:
Then why bring it up?
:rolleyes:
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To note that the plumber Matthew referenced was getting the idea from somewhere, that it wasn't completely made up even though it wasn't as advertised (assuming that Matthew's depiction of the plumber's description is itself accurate, which it might not be).

What's with all the unnecessary hostility in this thread? This isn't the politics section.
 
Giordano said:
I have found it interesting that flying nationals out of China to their home countries is an evacuation and is approved, even arranged by their native countries, whereas banning Chinese citizens from traveling in the same way is a necessary quarantine. I understand the political differences, but medically the risk per person is the same.
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Aside from the politics of the situation (a willingness to spend resources on and take risks for your own citizens more than foreigners, which I think is reasonable for governments to do), it's also a numbers game. The number of non-Chinese you might evacuate from China is limited, the number of Chinese citizens who might leave China is potentially huge. So even with a per-person equivalent medical risk, the former may be manageable but the latter may not be.
 
I think it's entirely possible the outbreak started in the start of the December and the numbers are now 10 times as high. They can simply post 1 month old data, and everything will look organic and natural.
It doesn't really matter though. We are getting more and more much more reliable numbers from other countries.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
This belongs in the CT thread. Please post this crap there, not here.
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Like the doctor who was shut down early on when the virus started.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia/coronavirus-doctor-whistle-blower-intl-hnk/index.html

As if the chinese government has always been truthfull and can be trusted.

BTW, I am not saying taiwannews is right. But, it happened at least three times. To me it looks odd that updated numbers accidentally (code error?) always show higher numbers for a short period of time, only to be corrected shortly afterwards.

If someone made an error on the keypad typing in the numbers, it should have some similarity to the original number. Nut just some random significantly higher number.

Maybe someone is doing it as a joke.
Maybe someone is actually trying to leak the real numbers.
Or chinese CMS is fubar.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Actually they didn't which is why we all know about it.
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We know that something happened. We don't know the extent of it. Most of what we do know comes from piecing together secondary sources. We have estimates, but no good primary sources about what actually happened.

I don't think China could keep it a complete secret, but they have certainly demonstrated form in obfuscating the nature and extent of it.
 
The Atheist said:
We should be giving up on it already - it's out, it's spreading, and by the end of next week, there will be millions of infections.
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25,000 at this point. You want to revise your doomsday scenario?

Shrinker said:
Already happening in the USA...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanon...ure-for-coronavirus-is-drinking-lethal-bleach
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Good, let them drive themselves to extinction.

dudalb said:
It's has been a century since the last really bad pandemic...the Flu pandemic of 1918 so we might be overdue.
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There is no such thing as being overdue unless you're on a schedule.
 
carlosy said:
Tencent accidentally (or via leak) showing real numbers?

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
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I read that, and the giveaway is the number of dead. The official numbers may be low, but I don't believe they're anything like that level.

And speaking of the official numbers, only 75 new cases reported yesterday, after 3000 the day before. They're obviously lagging on test results, but 75 seems way too good to be true.

As already noted, the numbers outside China are tending to confirm the official numbers as being pretty close to the mark.
 
Planigale said:
Vixen, my credentials may not be as good as Giordano's but I did intern at a national virology centre, when multiple people with technical expertise in the subject tell you that you are wrong, just accept it. Pico RNA viruses and coronaviruses are not the same thing.

PS DNA is not a protein and women do not have two Y chromosomes!
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I see your response seems more intent on snarkiness than anything genuine.

I have never said DNA was a protein, I said it was usually found in protein and as for your claim about women having two Y chromosomes, that is just a blatant lie on your part.

I repeat: corona virus is picornavirus like. I know because that is what it says on the science pages in google.
 
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