Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[rjh01]

In may cases the "evacuees" are wearing masks. The flight crews too. Plus washing hands, etc.

There is some evidence that the rate of new infections in China is slowing, but the numbers are soft given the intensity of the situation in that country. The health care system is just so overburdened it is difficult to judge.

I have found it interesting that flying nationals out of China to their home countries is an evacuation and is approved, even arranged by their native countries, whereas banning Chinese citizens from traveling in the same way is a necessary quarantine. I understand the political differences, but medically the risk per person is the same.

Thanks for your response. There is one difference between flying your own people and Chinese out of China. That is numbers. Managing a plane load of people, and putting them on a remote island, maybe without good medical facilities, for a couple of weeks can be done once or twice (for your own people). But not many more times (like Chinese wanting to be tourists). Lucky most students have already come to Australia. Lucky Australia does not have any native cases due to this route.

 

[theprestige]

In may cases the "evacuees" are wearing masks. The flight crews too. Plus washing hands, etc.

There is some evidence that the rate of new infections in China is slowing, but the numbers are soft given the intensity of the situation in that country. The health care system is just so overburdened it is difficult to judge.

I have found it interesting that flying nationals out of China to their home countries is an evacuation and is approved, even arranged by their native countries, whereas banning Chinese citizens from traveling in the same way is a necessary quarantine. I understand the political differences, but medically the risk per person is the same.

Banning Chinese citizens from returning to China?

 

[Dr.Sid]

Japan reported 3 new cases .. who tested negative before ! That's not good news.

http://www.newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/126313.php

 

[rjh01]

These people are traveling to Western countries with proper public health infrastructure and isolation.

That would be true if they get medical attention isolated before they get infectious and after symptoms appear. Since we know that there is no epidemic in Australia and many Chinese students have arrived in Australia in the last few weeks this is probably what is happening.

When a few more cases spread to India, some African countries, and areas of the world where wars are raging, you will see spread like we are seeing in China.

It may already be happening and going undetected.

That is one scary thought.

 

[Dr.Sid]

That is one scary thought.

That's one of the reasons for 'panic' with new infections. Sure, flu kills thousands every year. But we know it won't kill millions. We know it won't spread to Africa. We simply know flu, and we know how to deal with it.
With new viruses, we don't know.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Adding to my above post, one other vulnerability is the mass movement of migrants/refugees that is going on currently.

Quartz India: How India is dealing with the Coronavirus outbreak

In Bengaluru, a family of five was also tested for the coronavirus after the neighbours alerted officials that the family had visited China recently. From Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, 4,367 travellers have been screened at Bengaluru’s Kempegowda International Airport.

Weird, like in China, neighbors need to report their neighbors.

Why is that? Suspicion of others and distrust of the medical authorities so people don't go to be tested.

And if things haven changed since SARS, you can expect inconsistent screening at airports.


The Guardian: African countries rush to reinforce 'fragile' defences against coronavirus

African countries are rushing to reinforce their defences against the rapidly spreading coronavirus, as health officials say many countries on the continent are ill-equipped to combat the potentially lethal disease.

There have been no verified infections in Africa to date, but porous borders, a continuing flow of travellers and poorly resourced healthcare systems have raised fears that the virus could spread rapidly if the precautions of local authorities prove inadequate.

Dr Ambrose Otau Talisuna from the World Health Organization’s Africa office said on Tuesday that the risk of an outbreak on the continent was “very, very high” and that there were significant concerns about the ability of “fragile health systems” to cope with the epidemic. ...

Several countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Angola, Botswana and Ivory Coast, have signalled possible infections. But confirming coronavirus can take time, as health authorities lacking expertise have to send samples to just five labs across the continent. Three new labs have been opened in recent days.

Also you have large pockets of distrust of authorities. Fear of the polio vaccinations is one example (different from anti-vaxxers here). People with ebola fleeing rather than going to ebola hospitals has been an ongoing issue.

In addition there is serious ignorance in the world about infectious disease. Many people don't believe they can be contagious if they don't have symptoms.


This genie is not going back in the bottle until treatment and vaccine become widely available. On the positive side, it's not SARS. It's not the 1918 flu pandemic.

 

[The Atheist]

One thing I do not understand. A number of people have left China with the disease, yet hardly anyone (or maybe no one) has caught it from these people. If it is an infectious disease some people on the plane and airport should have got it. But they do not appear to have done so. So what is happening?

Yeah, I mentioned exactly that a few days back. Early on, people weren't wearing masks on flights, and there aren't any infections coming from them - that's what I mean when I said either maths had stopped working or there's a piece of the puzzle missing.

Maybe it isn't as contagious and/or virulent in tertiary infections?
Maybe it is the foecal/oral route and a broken system somewhere contributed to the mass numbers in China?

I'm sure there's more to come.

Meanwhile, the WHO chief is saying China's extreme measures have given the world an opportunity to contain the outbreak: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51368873

 

[Ziggurat]

It looks to me, with a death rate of over 40% of those patients, I'm pretty happy with critical.

That isn't the actual death rate, because the number of patients who will recover is up in the air. You can't calculate the death rate accurately with that method in the early stages where the infection rate is still rapidly increasing and many of the patients who will recover haven't yet recovered. Even the Wikipedia page warns about that.

 

[Giordano]

Vixen, my credentials may not be as good as Giordano's but I did intern at a national virology centre, when multiple people with technical expertise in the subject tell you that you are wrong, just accept it. Pico RNA viruses and coronaviruses are not the same thing.

PS DNA is not a protein and women do not have two Y chromosomes!

Have you met my sister? We've never confirmed it by karyotype but I've strongly suspected it for decades based on her aggressiveness.

 

[Giordano]

Banning Chinese citizens from returning to China?

"Flying nationals out of China..." Somehow I suspect you gathered my meaning without me spelling it out in detail. Glad I could amuse you. Other posts provided some useful information to me.

 

[The Atheist]

Almost 4000 new cases today, and Japan, Thailand and Singapore are starting to have a logarithmic increase in their admittedly small number of infected people. 65 new deaths, bringing the total to 491.

Still too early to tell, but that's a hell of an increase in one day. Obviously, testing may be a bit delayed with the sheer numbers involved, but we're still largely in the dark as to where it's all headed.

I find the zero cases in Africa unlikely and disturbing.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Looking at fresh data at Wikipedia.
1) daily % increases did not drop for the first time, back at exponential grow at 19% per day.
2) serious and dead lines are parallel, and slightly slower then new cases. Number of recovered grows nicely, dropping D/(D+R) ratio to 35.
3) column 'suspected' dropped compared to last value.

Here are the values graphed on logarithmic scale: https://imgur.com/80p2HKk

 

[rjh01]

Yeah, I mentioned exactly that a few days back. Early on, people weren't wearing masks on flights, and there aren't any infections coming from them - that's what I mean when I said either maths had stopped working or there's a piece of the puzzle missing.

Maybe it isn't as contagious and/or virulent in tertiary infections?
Maybe it is the foecal/oral route and a broken system somewhere contributed to the mass numbers in China?

I'm sure there's more to come.

Meanwhile, the WHO chief is saying China's extreme measures have given the world an opportunity to contain the outbreak: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51368873

I have bolded two sentences here. You may not be 100% right, but the longer time passes without reports of mass infections not in China the more likely you are to be close to the truth. I will give you a hit even if it is due to contaminated water or food. It would only stop spreading in China when they find the real reason it is spreading.

It might also only impact smokers. This has been discussed up thread so no need to repeat it.

 

[angrysoba]

In Japan, the story capturing the media's attention is a cruise ship where 10 (or more?) people have been quarantined because of suspected coronavirus.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ruise-ship-infected-coronavirus/#.Xjob-Gj7TIU

 

[sphenisc]

Almost 4000 new cases today, and Japan, Thailand and Singapore are starting to have a logarithmic increase in their admittedly small number of infected people. 65 new deaths, bringing the total to 491.

Still too early to tell, but that's a hell of an increase in one day. Obviously, testing may be a bit delayed with the sheer numbers involved, but we're still largely in the dark as to where it's all headed.
I find the zero cases in Africa unlikely and disturbing.

And South America too. They are 'the dogs that didn't bark' at the moment and the longer they stay silent ironically the more ominous it is.

 

[Roboramma]

How are people getting food? Are utility employees still going to work?

People are still shopping at grocery stores, it's not everything that's closed. Sorry, I wasn't clear: I own a yoga studio so we fall under a class of businesses that are closed until February 29. Gyms, schools, cinemas, etc, are all closed at the moment.

My ex has a government job, and they went back to work on Monday (though even they are working fewer days/week than usual). A lot of people haven't started working after the holidays yet, but should be back to work this week/next week.

Some restaurants are still open. I went out yesterday and it was eerily quiet, but there were still a few people out and about.

Still, a lot of people are shopping online as well. The delivery services say that they check their staff's temperature every morning and follow hygiene practices to limit the threat of exposure that way. Some won't deliver to your door, but only to the first floor of an apartment building. None of this is perfect (those delivery staff might be just be not symptomatic yet, someone who is infected may have touched the groceries, etc.), but it's also better than nothing.

A lot of people I know have stocked up on food. For instance one friend told me she and her husband bought 3 months worth of food and are just planning on staying indoors. My girlfriend hasn't left her apartment (but has been buying food online in the meantime, so there's still an avenue there).

The government said that they will issue some sort of statement about the situation on, I think, the 15th.

 

[Roboramma]

This is the third major zoonotic outbreak in China in the past 20 years.

Is that a statistically significant higher rate than expected with the Chinese population? Seems like you're drawing a conclusion that's not justified based on the very low N here.

 

[angrysoba]

I find the zero cases in Africa unlikely and disturbing.

And South America too. They are 'the dogs that didn't bark' at the moment and the longer they stay silent ironically the more ominous it is.

Why? Is there a lot of tourism from China to those countries?

I know China have a lot of business interests in Africa, but does that translate as masses of tourists?

Answer: No!

Among all Chinese tourists who traveled overseas in 2017, 67% had traveled to other Asian countries or regions
and 51% to Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan, while 38% had been to Europe, 25% to North America, and 20% to
Australia/ New Zealand.
Asian destinations were the most popular destinations among Chinese tourists due to numerous favorable
considerations, such as simpler visa procedures, more affordable prices, and convenient transportation. Japan,
Thailand, and South Korea were the top three choices, followed closely by Singapore, Malaysia, and the Maldives.
Hong Kong remains the most popular option among the three Chinese regions of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan.
As European travel routes become better developed for Chinese tourists, nearly 40% of respondents traveled
there last year, mainly to France, the United Kingdom, and to German

https://www.nielsen.com/wp-content/...nd-chinese-tourism-and-consumption-trends.pdf

Well, those are the countries that have confirmed cases.

There are apparently suspected cases in both Africa and South America.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Is that a statistically significant higher rate than expected with the Chinese population? Seems like you're drawing a conclusion that's not justified based on the very low N here.

No. It's not even a complete picture.

There are a number of hot spots so to speak, all over the world.

The 2009 flu variant arose in a pig farm in Mexico. HIV emerged out of Uganda (or a country near there).

China's risk comes from rural areas where domestic animals and people live in close contact. There are many places like that all over the world.

Bushmeat is a big risk and there are places both in Africa and in Asia where bushmeat is consumed. It's hardly unique to China.

 

[The Atheist]

Why? Is there a lot of tourism from China to those countries?

No, but there are hundreds of thousands, of not millions of Chinese working and conducting business in Africa.