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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Ulf Nereng said:
No, but many already existing anti-virals are being tested, and with a bit of luck that could change the situation a lot in favor of us humans. Perhaps one could turn out to be a useful prophylactic, or another could save a majority of those who contract the disease. There is a huge global research effort going on, and results could be forthcoming much sooner than for a vaccine.
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Well, we're only days away from results of actual trials of drugs.

I thought we'd have some preliminary results by now, but I guess we'll have to wait for another week or so. If it's a case of peer review, I'd be all in favour of waiting, because then we wouldn't end up with another hydroxychloroquine debacle.

The ideal result would be for Avigan or Remdesivir to work, because I think they're able to be made in sufficient numbers to make a difference and don't seem to cause instant death in some cases, unlike hydroxychloroquine.
 
I think Iceland and NZ can provide some good, real-time data on Covid-19.

Two small countries with easily-defended borders & small enough populations for cases to be tracked.

I said months back, when cases outside China were in the hundreds, that the epidemic seems to have a "pause" period. Washington state showed the effect when cases circulated for at least some weeks before hitting a retirement home and killing a whole load of people.

We have two unexplained clusters in NZ - one, a facility for severely disabled, the other, a private party: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...d-as-one-of-two-new-auckland-covid19-clusters

Now, those two clusters didn't get the disease from nowhere, so it must have been circulating for some time prior, with cases not being noticed.

The danger is that this will keep happening.

It also emphasises the likelihood of there being many times more cases than currently identified.
 
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Captain_Swoop said:
The number of people confirmed to have had coronavirus and died in the UK has risen by 980 to 8,958.
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Average Flu deaths in the UK are around 23,000 per year over the entire flu season, e.g. less than 2000 per month. When there is no lockdown in place.

With the lockdown in place, the UK now has 9000 dead after just 1 month.

This is very much worse than flu.

ETA: To make it even more obvious, the number of deaths just yesterday was half the total of an entire month for flu. In one day.
 
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And finally, some reliable information from India: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52242806

That would indicate to me that India's numbers are well behind the real pictures in their "official" data.

With the disease on the loose in the slums, and the millions of workers returning to their home towns a week ago, I'd say it's only just starting in India.
 
Looks like piles of hospital workers on Maui infected and under gag orders that finally got leaked over the past couple days. Anytime you see "Maui" think jetsetter culture, so I wouldn't be surprised if these were all from treating travel related.

Whistleblowers are claiming they were told not to wear masks both so as not to scare patients and tourists and because the Missile Button Governor's epic fail Department of Health said not to use up the PPE supplies.

Hawaii's own version of Dr Fauci and leading the science based medicine opposition to the governor's DOH goon squad, Lt. Governor Dr Josh Green was extremely upset and biting his tongue over a Maui cluster yesterday

(I realize how bizarre it might seem elsewhere that the Governor and Lt Governor are mortal enemies, but that's not too weird given the way politics and elections work in Hawaii)

https://mauinow.com/2020/04/10/maui...o-19-includes-3-more-employees-and-1-patient/
 
Doghouse Reilly said:
Oh, I understand that. But the emergency accomodations in the parks and convention center were not needed, yet were used several times as "proof" that this was something extremely serious. Whether or not it is, that was not proof of it one way or the other.
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Doghouse Reilly said:
You tell us, I haven't seen a single person say that. What is the source of your quote? You don't know whom you're quoting?
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<ahem>
 
The Atheist said:
And finally, some reliable information from India: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52242806

That would indicate to me that India's numbers are well behind the real pictures in their "official" data.

With the disease on the loose in the slums, and the millions of workers returning to their home towns a week ago, I'd say it's only just starting in India.
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I read a statement from an official about the slums.


1. At the first sign of disease all acces to the slum would be locked out.
2. The slum dwellers would be given adequate food and other supplies.
3. Sick people would be take out for treatment.


I believed that first claim.
 
For those who want some facts. The current report on all patients admitted to ICU in the UK (excluding Scotland). Comparison with viral pneumonia prior to covid is given
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
This is an evolving situation so figures will change. Key observations might be mortality if you need ventilation for covid pneumonia is 70%, whilst it was about 30% for non-covid viral pneumonia. If you need ICU admission but avoid going on a ventilator mortality is about 30%. There is a signal that BME people may have a higher mortality than white ethnicity. This is complex and may represent higher rates of e.g. hypertension and diabetes and poorer housing, or poorer adherence to social distancing.
 
The Atheist said:
And finally, some reliable information from India: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52242806

That would indicate to me that India's numbers are well behind the real pictures in their "official" data.

With the disease on the loose in the slums, and the millions of workers returning to their home towns a week ago, I'd say it's only just starting in India.
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I'm scared for India. They are behind most other countries, but pretty much on pace with other countries that this virus has hit hard (US, Italy, Spain, France, UK). But India has 1.3 billion people. They don't have the resources those other countries have. They have huge deaths from tuberculosis. They don't have the strong authoritarian government of China that can just shut everything down.

There is the potential this could be really, really bad for India.
 
Planigale said:
Key observations might be mortality if you need ventilation for covid pneumonia is 70%, whilst it was about 30% for non-covid viral pneumonia.
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Why do you think that is? You reported that covid patients doing well seem to get much worse very quickly. I have seen reports that indicate that was also the case with the 2009 swine flu.

Is there something about a novel virus that causes that type of quick deterioration in health? Do you think that quick decline is what increases morbidity in covid pneumonia that needs ventilation?
 
DevilsAdvocate said:
Why do you think that is? You reported that covid patients doing well seem to get much worse very quickly. I have seen reports that indicate that was also the case with the 2009 swine flu.

Is there something about a novel virus that causes that type of quick deterioration in health? Do you think that quick decline is what increases morbidity in covid pneumonia that needs ventilation?
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Check out 5.2 and I've hear them talking anecdotally and even a doctor on TWIV using it, but if it was so sure you think it would be in more widespread use for this specific complication of covid 19

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102614/
 
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South Korea is reporting that 91 patients have tested positive again after having been thought cured of the disease.

As before there are a few possibilities:

1) False negatives (or presumably false positives, although I guess that is not as likely)

2) Re-activation of the virus

3) Reinfection.

The latter would presumably be the most worrying, if true.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X
 
Copied this from a post in another forum so don't have the link, but if it's accurate it doesn't look good for the Swedish experiment.

ETA: I guess if they end up with a population with high herd immunity and hence no further outbreaks it may be worth it. Time will tell.
 

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One problem with basing your bets on the official counts is that deaths from coronavirus may be twice the official count - or more.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...-appears-higher-than-official-figures-suggest

The article suggests that excess deaths over the normal death rate may be 2-3 times higher than the deaths attributed to Covid19 in a few selected areas of Italy and France.

[imgw=800]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVD3h-JUYAcvb1c?format=jpg&name=4096x4096[/imgw]
 
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