Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[JeanTate]

South Korea is reporting that 91 patients have tested positive again after having been thought cured of the disease.

As before there are a few possibilities:

1) False negatives (or presumably false positives, although I guess that is not as likely)

2) Re-activation of the virus

3) Reinfection.

The latter would presumably be the most worrying, if true.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X

Something similar has been reported from China (IIRC). Maybe other places too?

False negatives (and false positives) are certainly going to happen; no test is perfect, even if applied twice. I guess that in time we'll have a good handle on the distribution of false negatives/positives, by many a variable.

At a practical level, it would seem that continuing to put a lot of resources into testing would be prudent, coupled with doing a sterling job of contact tracing, and isolation.

 

[The Atheist]

Looks like piles of hospital workers on Maui infected and under gag orders that finally got leaked over the past couple days.

That's more than slightly troubling, but if it's been happening for some time, it doesn't appear to be showing up in cases and deaths elsewhere.

Try comparing newspaper death notice numbers from last week and the same week last year and see if there's a noticeable difference.

I read a statement from an official about the slums.


1. At the first sign of disease all acces to the slum would be locked out.
2. The slum dwellers would be given adequate food and other supplies.
3. Sick people would be take out for treatment.


I believed that first claim.

Yep, I'll believe that too.

There is the potential this could be really, really bad for India.

I think it's beyond potential now and it will definitely be terrible.

If we look at South Korea I think it is. If countries after their lockdown act as SK has been doing I think fresh outbreaks can be minimised. But will we see such focus in countries like the UK and the USA, I sadly doubt it.

Haha! Only doubt?

 

[alfaniner]

If you had read the links I posted above you would know that these are deaths reported in the last 24 hours not that occurred in the last 24 hours. Some of them are deaths that have occurred in the last few days that are only now being reported. What you need to look at is deaths by the day they occurred not the day they are reported.

No reporting is ever going to be that granular, or accurate for more than a few minutes.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Whatever you say. And yet somehow, I'll have been right and you wrong. Interesting.

"will have been" I just love the Future perfect use here. As long as you are going there, why not future perfect continuous? This way you can prematurely boast you will have been always right continuously for the past and well into the future!???

It's been about 40 years since I was always right. Nice to see others managed to stay always right for much longer.

 

[Mader Levap]

He (and other denialists here) is trumpeting his "win" while he can. Because, obviously, tomorrow count of deaths will fall to 0.

 

[novaphile]

Your invented/fabricated quote said "used" not "needed." I said they weren't needed, not that they weren't being used at all. Because of anticipated need there were already 300 or so patients who'd been distributed at some of the accessory locations.

OK. Where are you getting the information that they're not "NEEDED" ?

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

The state of Colorado managed to find 500 ventilators for sale. But the Trump Administration seized the ventilators before they could be delivered, then gave 100 of the 500 to Colorado supposedly at the request of the Republican senator who is running for re-election.

 

[angrysoba]

Official death tolls for covid-19 may exclude people who died before they could be tested. They also ignore people who succumbed to other causes, perhaps because hospitals had no room to treat them.

...

L’Eco di Bergamo, a newspaper, has obtained data from 82 localities in Italy’s Bergamo province. In March these places had 2,420 more deaths than in March 2019. Just 1,140, less than half of the increase, were attributed to covid-19.

Comparable figures can be found across Europe. In Spain El País, a newspaper, has published the results of a study by the government’s health research centre, showing that “excess” deaths in the Castile-La Mancha region were double the number attributed to covid-19.

Thanks.

 

[pipelineaudio]

That's more than slightly troubling, but if it's been happening for some time, it doesn't appear to be showing up in cases and deaths elsewhere.

Its 16 new cases from that scandal so far, possibly another 21 announced today

 

[The Atheist]

Waiting.

That seems to me to be all there is right now, waiting for, specifically:

A viable, successful treatment - meaning 90+ success rate, as in antibiotics. Trial results due this month on several, however, I doubt they will show anything more than slight improvements. None will be a pandemic-ending discovery, although that may happen later this year.

The lockdowns to end and see where it goes. I can't see any way a return to anything like business as usual doesn't result in another strike. The number cases NY is finding shows that there's nothing like herd immunity yet, so even if we look at a factor of ten times as many people having the disease than confirmed cases, only 10% of the state has been infected.

Vaccine. We now have two claims that there will be a vaccine this year, latest being an English crowd which gives itself an 80% chance of success. The other was Christine Lagarde, who made the claim a couple of weeks back.

I feel I'm stuck in Pink Floyd's Waiting for the Worms.

 

[The Atheist]

Its 16 new cases from that scandal so far, possibly another 21 announced today

Still no big deal as far as I can see - the increase over the past week hasn't been above 6% a day.

What it does highlight is these damned clusters, which seem to be the root of the problem.

Are there super-spreaders? And if so, who are they and why? Why do some clusters spark up and others don't?

 

[The Atheist]

And a good piece here by former #3 in the UN, Helen Clark: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...of-a-globally-coordinated-response-to-covid19

 

[Marcus]

It's a balancing act. Wait too long to end the lockdown and the depression will be worse than 1929. Perhaps we will have to end it on May 1 and accept the consequences.

 

[Dr.Sid]

It's a balancing act. Wait too long to end the lockdown and the depression will be worse than 1929. Perhaps we will have to end it on May 1 and accept the consequences.

Not gonna work. 'Accept the consequences' would lead to bigger loss of life then so far anywhere. Complete collapse of healthcare in week. After that people will lock themselves down even more than now, and economic effects will be even worse. And if the food supplies collapse, everything will descend into chaos. You won't have to worry about economics of USA anymore. There will be no USA. Just good old Wild West.

 

[Marcus]

Not gonna work. 'Accept the consequences' would lead to bigger loss of life then so far anywhere. Complete collapse of healthcare in week. After that people will lock themselves down even more than now, and economic effects will be even worse. And if the food supplies collapse, everything will descend into chaos. You won't have to worry about economics of USA anymore. There will be no USA. Just good old Wild West.

Okay, this I take it is your prediction of what will happen if we restart on 5-1. When is it you think we should restart?


Edit: I think what will actually happen is a partial restart, people will go back to work but with precautions in place.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Okay, this I take it is your prediction of what will happen if we restart on 5-1. When is it you think we should restart?


Edit: I think what will actually happen is a partial restart, people will go back to work but with precautions in place.

Yes, that's the only way. Once new confirmed cases drop to almost nothing you start sending groups of workers back to work. First the industries that produce goods. Tourism last. One precaution could be to make facemasks mandatory for the duration of this year (or longer).

 

[novaphile]

Yes, that's the only way. Once new confirmed cases drop to almost nothing you start sending groups of workers back to work. First the industries that produce goods. Tourism never. One precaution could be to make facemasks mandatory for the duration of this year (or longer).

Get rid of tourism for good, and turn all the plague ships into artificial reefs.

 

[Marcus]

Yes, that's the only way. Once new confirmed cases drop to almost nothing you start sending groups of workers back to work. First the industries that produce goods. Tourism last. One precaution could be to make facemasks mandatory for the duration of this year (or longer).

I'm just hoping that the fall art show season will remain intact. I have a couple of shows scheduled over the summer that haven't yet been cancelled, Memphis and Rockport, but I don't hold out any great hopes, people will probably still be a bit jumpy. I will even wear a face mask if that will help.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Get rid of tourism for good, and turn all the plague ships into artificial reefs.

Maybe they could replace all the coral reefs that have become bleached!

 

[EHocking]

Get rid of tourism for good, and turn all the plague ships into artificial reefs.

Just get rid of international tourism.

Norway will just have to live with a removal of 9% of their GDP.

But Australia, surprisingly, would only lose 1% of their GDP.
while tourism income is 3% of our GDP, 73% of that tourist dollar is generated domestically.
ETA : Norway’s domestic tourist dollar is similar ~70% of that 9% of GDP