Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[ProBonoShill]

I'm not.. At the end of Jan. China did a strong lockdown in Wuhan including roadblocks into and out of the city. And they implemented stronger social distancing in the rest of China than we currently have in the US. They still had a lot of spread across China but the numbers were small. They simultaneously did testing and contact tracing quarantining the families and associated as soon as someone tested positive. Since they started it so early in Jan the cases outside Wuhan were controlled. They've now relaxed the stricter controls outside Wuhan and are soon to do the same in Wuhan.

Perhaps you missed the stories of Chinese students in the US that were chartering private jets to get back to China considering the US to be unsafe and getting worse rapidly.

That's awesome, please cite some reliable sources, Chinese propaganda doesn't count, this is a skeptic site after all or used to be.

 

[ProBonoShill]

I think you are unfairly dismissive. This is not out of the range of other estimates which have been as low as 25% mortality (comparable with other viral pneumonias), and 95% mortality for those needing ventilation. The UK estimates are about 40%, but a significant number of patients are still in ICU and this value may change.
https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest...-On-775-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19

No I'm not, I have pretty accurate figures for my locale which are easily accessible and his post which was based on a simple anecdote was wrong at best and careless at worst.

I noticed you didn't dispute my numbers at all. Care to try using math this time?

 

[The Atheist]

So none of those health care workers getting infected were wearing masks?

Healthcare workers are a bit different to everyone else, working very closely with highly infectious patients.

I have to say, the number of health professionals being infected bothers the hell out of me - if they had the right PPE and conditions, they wouldn't get it.

Like this bloke: https://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/health/nurse-dies-of-suspected-covid-19-1-6587770

Perhaps you missed the stories of Chinese students in the US that were chartering private jets to get back to China considering the US to be unsafe and getting worse rapidly.

Count me in on China's position being pretty accurate right now.

That's awesome, please cite some reliable sources, Chinese propaganda doesn't count, this is a skeptic site after all or used to be.

Financial Times independent enough for you?

https://www.ft.com/content/f47a39ea-6a66-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

There is no question China is back at work - their problem right now is nobody ordering anything, because the rest of the world is shut down. I've gone from receiving one quote a week from China pre-Covid to three or four a day now as they desperately try to find markets for their products.

If the epidemic was ongoing, they'd still be shut down and they're not.

 

[The Don]

I note that the Chinese government is recommending a treatment which has not basis in science and, as a double whammy, involves animal cruelty

Yay humanity

China has approved the use of bear bile to treat critically ill coronavirus patients.

The National Health Commission has recommended the use of Tan Re Qing - an injection that contains bear bile, goat horn and herbs - to treat patients with Covid-19.

But there is no evidence the mixture has any medicinal value.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...859d574e049e066f596657&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Belz...]

How is a discussion of why Italy might be seeing particularly high death rates irrelevant??

The premise of the theory is irrelevant. I didn't say it was off-topic. Sheesh.

 

[Belz...]

Two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza.

When you look for a truth, you will find it.

That would mean that the rate of infection is at least 100 times higher than currently known, which doesn't seem possible.

 

[JesseCuster]

You do see your internal contradiction don't you? "Denying the seriousness ... is also COVID denial,... (and then) ...the seriousness of COVID is being argued in this thread. "

The point being made is that you don't need to think that a problem doesn't exist in order to be in denial about it.

When someone mentioned COVID-19 denialism, you asked for examples of people in this thread who believe COVID-19 doesn't exist. The point being made by others it that you can be in denial about something without thinking it doesn't exist.

A stark example that a lot of people might resonate with. I'm a recovering alcoholic. My denial ranged from outright denying I had a drinking problem, to thinking the problem wasn't that bad and others were overreacting, to acknowledging the problem but not doing anything about it because I hadn't lost my job or ruined my liver yet and I'd do something about it when it really affected me, etc. Denial can take on a wide range of forms.

Note, I'm not accusing you of being a denialist, just pointing out that you don't have to think COVID-19 doesn't exist to be in denial about it.

 

[JesseCuster]

Two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.

https://web.archive.org/web/2020032...coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

Let's run with that low 0.01% mortality rate.

Italy has a population of 60 million. If every single person in Italy had COVID-19 and 0.01% of them died that would be a total of 6,000 deaths from COVID-19.

So far the total deaths from COVID-19 in Italy is 12,400 and rising.

The death rate can't possibly be that low. How can those numbers possibly make any sense?

 

[Capsid]

I note that the Chinese government is recommending a treatment which has not basis in science and, as a double whammy, involves animal cruelty

Yay humanity



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...859d574e049e066f596657&pinned_post_type=share

Bile farming is one of the most abhorrent practices. It should be banned!

 

[JesseCuster]

No I'm not, I have pretty accurate figures for my locale which are easily accessible and his post which was based on a simple anecdote was wrong at best and careless at worst.

I noticed you didn't dispute my numbers at all. Care to try using math this time?

From earlier in this thread:

Let's use conservative numbers and say every Toronto hospital only has 10 critical cases, that's 250 ICU patients, which based on your hearsay means 165 people have died in Toronto alone, not even close to being true.

Those numbers are "pretty accurate"? They seem to be entirely made up.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.

https://web.archive.org/web/2020032...coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

Interesting. I've started a deep dive into that information. As I get into it, it ironically makes covid look much worse than I thought. I will look into it more. But it takes a lot of time and research. I'm not going to just go off from some journalistic articles. I'll have to find the underlying studies and get actual facts. That takes a lot of time.

I did a previous post with a bunch of facts and sources and formulas and conclusions. I have since seen a number of posts of speculations and mere references to articles supporting a specific conclusion. I would like to see more facts, sources, and formulas that support the hypothesis.

I am a skeptic. I seek the truth. I follow the evidence where it leads. I am wary of arguments and especially a series of arguments that seem to be promoting a particular conclusion and presenting evidence only for that preconceived conclusion rather than considering the evidence and deriving the conclusion, whatever it may be, from the evidence.

 

[PartSkeptic]

If we do not have a vaccine, then 60% of the USA will get the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If 4% of those die as a direct result of the virus that is 350 million * 60% * 4 % = 8.4 million. Then if more die due to complications such as suicides and lack of ordinary medical care the number will be higher. Will some US people starve?

The question is how long a period is this going to spread over. Social distancing can only slow it. By limiting the deaths to 200,000 every three months then that is about 10 years of slow death. Only a full draconian lock-down can stop it but even that takes about 3 months - and then it can come back and back again unless aggressive and extensive testing can result in virus free zones on an ongoing basis.

 

[PartSkeptic]

At ISF the moderating team do not edit for content as long as it doesn't breach the MA however for this thread I am altering that stance for only the 2nd time since I joined the moderating team. I am not going to allow this thread to be derailed or infected with absolutely crazy ideas. Partskeptic if you want to talk about your, to be polite "non evidence" based ideas about this virus start your own thread. Do not try to bring them into this thread. Ignoring this mod warning will result in further moderation action which will mean a suspension and a suspension with no appeal. This decision is not open to debate.

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Darat

 

[JesseCuster]

Content deleted see mod box above

Posted By: Darat

 

[a_unique_person]

563 in one day in the UK.



Double the population of Australia but we have 24 total deaths in all. Bizarre. The Australian population is much more dispersed.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/coronavirus-death-toll-cases-rises-victoria/12112254

 

[The Don]

If we do not have a vaccine, then 60% of the USA will get the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If 4% of those die as a direct result of the virus that is 350 million * 60% * 4 % = 8.4 million. Then if more die due to complications such as suicides and lack of ordinary medical care the number will be higher. Will some US people starve?

The question is how long a period is this going to spread over. Social distancing can only slow it. By limiting the deaths to 200,000 every three months then that is about 10 years of slow death. Only a full draconian lock-down can stop it but even that takes about 3 months - and then it can come back and back again unless aggressive and extensive testing can result in virus free zones on an ongoing basis.

The 4% death rate seems a tad high.

As you note, social distancing is intended to slow the disease which may significantly reduce the overall death toll because:

There will be enough critical care facilities to allow everyone to get the care they need as opposed to only having enough ventilators for 1 in 10 to get one and hence a 95% death rate as opposed to "only" 50% for those requiring ventilation.

The healthcare system won't be completely overwhelmed and so people without Coronavirus who require critical care will be able to get it.

It's all in expectation that an effective vaccine will eventually be developed.

 

[a_unique_person]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/health/sanjay-gupta-podcast-april-1/index.html
This is an unusual disease. I'm fascinated, Sanjay, by what I would call the pathogenesis. You know, you get so many people who do well and then some people who just, bingo, they're on a respirator, they're on ECMO (a life-support machine) and they're dead. I mean, the dichotomy between that, there's something there, Sanjay, that we're missing from a pathogenesis standpoint. And I don't think it's only if you're elderly or if you have underlying conditions. There's something else going on there that hopefully we'll ultimately figure out. Anthony Fauci

Edited by Darat: 

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Very interesting comment from Fauci.

Edited by Darat: 

Removed the moderated content/

 

[JesseCuster]

Very interesting comment from Fauci.

Unfortunately, people run with a comment about COVID-19 not being very well understood yet and that there's still a lot to know about it, as a springboard for all sorts of silly ideas.

As for cell phones, forget it.

Edited by Darat: 

Removed the moderated content/

 

[alfaniner]

here's something else going on there that hopefully we'll ultimately figure out. Anthony Fauci

"Air doesn't matter. Blood does."
I keep thinking of this quote from The Andromeda Strain.

 

[Planigale]

Healthcare workers are a bit different to everyone else, working very closely with highly infectious patients.

I have to say, the number of health professionals being infected bothers the hell out of me - if they had the right PPE and conditions, they wouldn't get it.
Like this bloke: https://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/health/nurse-dies-of-suspected-covid-19-1-6587770



Count me in on China's position being pretty accurate right now.



Financial Times independent enough for you?

https://www.ft.com/content/f47a39ea-6a66-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

There is no question China is back at work - their problem right now is nobody ordering anything, because the rest of the world is shut down. I've gone from receiving one quote a week from China pre-Covid to three or four a day now as they desperately try to find markets for their products.

If the epidemic was ongoing, they'd still be shut down and they're not.

Really what we mean is they would not get it a greater rate than the background population rate. Health care staff are just as susceptible as anyone else in their private life, we need to be careful not to attribute every case in a health care worker to a failure of PPE.