Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[The Atheist]

So should we be going to the stores as long as we dont put our hands in our faces?

Most of us have no choice, given face masks aren't available for public purchase in NZ and haven't been for three weeks or so.

I'd wear a mask if they were available, simply because of airborne droplets from sneezes & coughs, but they're not and distancing seems to be working ok so far.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You might detect IgM within a few days of infection.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

From infection or from symptom onset?

You probably can't open the study from your phone but the study looks at IGM, IGG, both combined and RNA.

Median seroconversion: Total Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies - 11 days

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM antibodies - 12 days

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies - 15 days

Seroconversion curves were constructed from the data and showed that total antibodies and IgM isotype antibodies were 100% detectable approximately one month after symptom onset. However, in the first week after developing signs of illness, antibodies were present in less than 40% of patients tested. The seroconversion rate and antibody levels rose quickly during the fortnight after symptom onset, and the cumulative seropositive rate was 50% on day 11 and 100% on day 39.

Not great for identifying COVID patients presenting with early onset of symptoms.

Not that RNA was perfect for early detection either.
Performance of Detection Methods Over Time (Sensitivity Scores, Days Post-Symptom Onset)

RNA day 1-7 - 66.7%

day 7-14 - 54.0%

day 15-39 - 45.5%

 

[pipelineaudio]

Most of us have no choice, given face masks aren't available for public purchase in NZ and haven't been for three weeks or so.

I'd wear a mask if they were available, simply because of airborne droplets from sneezes & coughs, but they're not and distancing seems to be working ok so far.

We've been making masks. It was a golden opportunity for our government to use this all of a sudden out of work workforce, but they totally dropped it.

So my cousin started instead last week

 

[marting]

Nature reported a study of aerosol density emission changes are a result of speech loudness showing a 50 to 1 increase. On top of that there are individuals that seem to emit another 10x more than the median. And these are independent of language.

Here we show that the rate of particle emission during normal human speech is positively correlated with the loudness (amplitude) of vocalization, ranging from approximately 1 to 50 particles per second (0.06 to 3 particles per cm3) for low to high amplitudes, regardless of the language spoken (English, Spanish, Mandarin, or Arabic). Furthermore, a small fraction of individuals behaves as “speech superemitters,” consistently releasing an order of magnitude more particles than their peers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z

This seems consistent with the 60 person, 3hr, choir practice where 75% became COVID-19 positive. Singing is even more intensive than loud speech and also involves much deeper breathing.

I'm even more convinced these cases were aerosols from a super-spreader.

 

[alfaniner]

Nature reported a study of aerosol density emission changes are a result of speech loudness showing a 50 to 1 increase. On top of that there are individuals that seem to emit another 10x more than the median. And these are independent of language.



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z

This seems consistent with the 60 person, 3hr, choir practice where 75% became COVID-19 positive. Singing is even more intensive than loud speech and also involves much deeper breathing.

I'm even more convinced these cases were aerosols from a super-spreader.

I often see in movies where a person is shouting and you can see the saliva spray. Like last night in Valkyrie -- two scenes in a row. No, I don't think it's CGId in for effect...

 

[Athyrio]

I thought of that after making the post. I had posted in the middle of the day, with a start point I got by looking at the total on the Worldmeter site. But they run the totals "live", updating as information comes in. Which means that by the end of the day, the number I chose for March 31 was already 'wrong' in a sort of a way. Might have been better to have started with the previous day's totals, for an apples to apples comparison of the totals from the end of each day with the spreadsheet numbers. I don't think it makes a huge difference though - it's not exactly a precision scientific estimate, just a rough structure to promote dialogue..

I don't think it makes a huge difference either. Projections are just that, but already the stats you offered are falling behind the reality of the death tally (USA - 4542 at 4:13 EST 1APR20) which suggests to me thus far, this ain't no normal flu rate. Having a personal beef with a good friend who chose to use his "stay at home" isolation by dragging his asthmatic, chain smoking, alcoholic wife down to the beach at Pensacola last week. "Only 35,000 died from the flu last year in the U.S. - it's gonna be the same with this or less" he says. Meanwhile, their daughter is using her isolation time to learn to ride her new motorcycle. If she lays it down, she better go see Saul Goodman's vet rather than a hospital. I plan to show him your spreadsheet when the deaths exceed 35,000.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

That's an absurd hypothesis.

It's not mine, it's what they're saying in the article based on a report from the Italian Ministry of Health? Why in the world is it "absurd"? The whole world is wondering why Italy has such a high death rate and this seems a perfectly valid PARTIAL explanation. It makes perfect sense that people who might have died of flu in a heavier season would now die of coronavirus. It's a pretty lame response to just say, "That's absurd" without explaining even in the briefest terms why you think so. It just makes me feel like you can't, even if that might not be the case.

It's condescension like that that puts people off of listening to anything you might have to say of interest, and I know you do have a lot of knowledge to share so it's a pity.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Not only that, but it's completely irrelevant.

How is a discussion of why Italy might be seeing particularly high death rates irrelevant??

 

[pipelineaudio]

Does every season end up with hospital tents in central park?

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Does every season end up with hospital tents in central park?

If that's a reply to me, I don't see the relevance to a discussion of why Italy is experiencing a higher death rate than the rest of the world.

But I'll humor you anyways. Your argument in the form of a question is ridiculous, EVEN if this is the pandemic that everyone says it is. In this post I am not even arguing that it won't be, I'm presenting the case for why continuing to ask this stupid question is dumb and pointless. It's the equivalent of putting out thousands of sandbags and using that as proof that there are going to be big storms this year.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Do you think all the stories about hospitals in new york being overwhelmed are fake? Do you think that the stories of them running out of ventilators or PPE are fake?

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Do you think all the stories about hospitals in new york being overwhelmed are fake? Do you think that the stories of them running out of ventilators or PPE are fake?

Can you share links? I haven't seen those stories yet. I'm not denying that they exist. All the articles I can find relating to NY today are saying that it's going to happen, not that it has.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's not mine, it's what they're saying in the article based on a report from the Italian Ministry of Health? Why in the world is it "absurd"? The whole world is wondering why Italy has such a high death rate and this seems a perfectly valid PARTIAL explanation. It makes perfect sense that people who might have died of flu in a heavier season would now die of coronavirus. It's a pretty lame response to just say, "That's absurd" without explaining even in the briefest terms why you think so. It just makes me feel like you can't, even if that might not be the case.

It's condescension like that that puts people off of listening to anything you might have to say of interest, and I know you do have a lot of knowledge to share so it's a pity.

I don't care whose hypothesis it is, it's very easily debunked.

The flu doesn't clear out the elderly and debilitated every year. That's a bit of Dunning-Kruger thinking.

It wasn't flu season at the same time all over the planet. Maybe Italy had a slow flu season last year (2017-2018), but did the report look at flu worldwide when making this assertion?

As for Ministry of Health, yeah that doesn't mean scientific expertise. One look at incompetrump's cabinet and other appointments should make that obvious.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

I don't care whose hypothesis it is, it's very easily debunked.

The flu doesn't clear out the elderly and debilitated every year. That's a bit of Dunning-Kruger thinking.

It wasn't flu season at the same time all over the planet. Maybe Italy had a slow flu season last year (2017-2018), but did the report look at flu worldwide when making this assertion?

As for Ministry of Health, yeah that doesn't mean scientific expertise. One look at incompetrump's cabinet and other appointments should make that obvious.

Thank you, I don't completely understand your argument. If fewer weak and elderly people were victims of flu, wouldn't more of them be around to die of this virus? I still don't understand why that wouldn't be the case. It's probably a deficiency in my own comprehension rather than your presentation. I'll try to figure it out but if you could further clarify I would appreciate it.

 

[dudalb]

No, and we know from our ever so capable government that if we unload a lot of people on Guam the island will flip over

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/tipping-point/

A lot more then 8000 Marines were on Guam in 1944..and a few thousand Japanese also....
Island did not flip over.

 

[angrysoba]

Thank you, I don't completely understand your argument. If fewer weak and elderly people were victims of flu, wouldn't more of them be around to die of this virus? I still don't understand why that wouldn't be the case. It's probably a deficiency in my own comprehension rather than your presentation. I'll try to figure it out but if you could further clarify I would appreciate it.

Or you could put it another way, if you had a very hard flu season, wouldn't those who survived it be in a weaker state than they otherwise would have?

A very light flu season would just mean that those same elderly wouldn't have had their immune systems attacked as badly as in a heavy flu season.

See? Armchair reasoning is easy to do. Even I can do it. But what you need is evidence.

 

[EHocking]

No, this is wrong.
People are going shopping and out for exercise. People are still going to work.

Yes, those are the conditions of the UK lockdown measures.

Police have no powers to confine people to their houses.

TheY have been given power to enforce the lockdown measures.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Or you could put it another way, if you had a very hard flu season, wouldn't those who survived it be in a weaker state than they otherwise would have?

A very light flu season would just mean that those same elderly wouldn't have had their immune systems attacked as badly as in a heavy flu season.

See? Armchair reasoning is easy to do. Even I can do it. But what you need is evidence.

Yes, thank you, you make very good points and I can see how it is faulty reasoning. That's why I'm on this board. I am a big believer in good evidence and good reasoning. The reason I'm skeptical of this pandemic is because so far I haven't found the evidence persuasive that one exists. I think we will see total combined deaths between flu and coronavirus in the US for the 2019-2020 season of 65,000-80,000, clearly a heavy flu/respiratory illness season, but not the disaster predicted. And then, as I said before, all the people who were wrong will still say I was the one who was wrong because all of the lockdowns are what caused the low number of deaths. I don't see a way out of this conundrum.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Good news from Washington, in an MSNBC interview Dow Constantine, Executive of King County, says they are not seeing the exponential growth that epidemiologists predict so far. Hopefully that persists. I do very dearly want to be proven correct in my pandemic denialism, not least because it means millions won't die, but admittedly also because it would just be nice to be right.

https://youtu.be/NQKu48vZPb4

 

[pipelineaudio]

A lot more then 8000 Marines were on Guam in 1944..and a few thousand Japanese also....
Island did not flip over.

LIES! The reason for the Journey of the Hokulea was to save all the inhabitants from The Great Capsizing of Guam!