Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Steve]

Fair enough, I wasn't clear. What I meant by "the same thing" is an annual phenomenon of respiratory illness attributed to viruses of one kind or another, this year being heavily attributed to the newly discovered Covid 19 virus, but not appreciably different in terms of case rates, spread, and fatalities but with the illusion of being so because of extreme levels of testing and reporting and media hysteria and the attendant societal hysteria.

Thanks for this. While I don’t necessarily agree with you I now understand your position and I can write my responses accordingly.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You narrowed it down to Kirkland, I had already harrowed it down to "staff", not the 35 dead residents. Enough with the gotchas. Get data on the staff from the Kirkland Life Care homes. It can be done by phone interview. By the county health department. BUT, it won't be, because it won't involve more doom and gloom, no deaths. The results will not be in keeping with the narrative of "Oh NOEs!! It's going to kills us ALLL!!! ELEVENTY!!!" Or we would have heard. "If it bleeds, it leads. If it doesn't shock, it gets blocked."

I guess at this point I see it as "The absence of negative news is the presence of good news", when the real news would be so easily obtained. But the politicians and the media both need to keep us scared so they can lead us to safety. There is an election coming up. There is always an election coming up.

Your post is full of straw.

What are you trying to prove insisting someone make phone calls for you?

What state are you in?

 

[angrysoba]

Fair enough, I wasn't clear. What I meant by "the same thing" is an annual phenomenon of respiratory illness attributed to viruses of one kind or another, this year being heavily attributed to the newly discovered Covid 19 virus, but not appreciably different in terms of case rates, spread, and fatalities but with the illusion of being so because of extreme levels of testing and reporting and media hysteria and the attendant societal hysteria.

Okay, but the question then becomes why are the hospitals being deluged with patients and why is there a massive shortage of ventilators now, and why are the obituary pages in Italian newspapers four or five times what they usually are, and why are the incinerators backed up if this is just what happens every year?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Not exactly. Each year a vaccine is produced which represents the best guess as to which varieties will be the most prevalent in the coming season. Many years a new mutant crops up which renders the vaccine mostly moot.

Which is to say: we throw our best solution at this problem with an immunization program incorporating federal, state, local, community organizations, the works, at it.

To stop it from looking like what is happening right now.

Pardon me, just spring-boarding your thought back towards the central point.

We do a lot to stop the "regular flu."

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

For starters it's not " just like the flu", it's " in addition to the flu ", and why we have field hospitals in Central Park..

I'm glad you noticed. It's taking a while for some other people to.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

No. Everything I'm looking at is indicating that flu numbers are down while coronavirus numbers are up. In other words, same thing. And as you can see in the article I posted from last year, tent hospitals aren't a new thing during flu outbreaks.

Yeah, a couple tents in front of a couple hospitals.

Have you no sense of scale?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don't think what I've posted counts as denialism. I'm not saying there is any conspiracy, I am looking at publically available information and statistics and asking legitimate questions. The fact that you brush off the questions as "conspiracy theory" rather than answering them says a lot.

If people in denial recognized their denial, they wouldn't be in denial.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Was the pun intentional? Either way I was amused.

Wasn't a Catholic denomination.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

For once a WH press conference that I liked. The first graph they show explains extremely well how the US government thinks about this epidemic and probably also how all responsible governments sees it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggCZXLTSbPE

 

[Samson]

Ireland USA Denmark Sweden and UK are all moving about equally in the main stats, there is far too much focus on absolute numbers in the media.
Cases per million is far more illuminating.
It is a real failure of the most basic kind.

Sweden is worth watching with lax rules compared to UK for example

 

[Samson]

New Zealand can be predicted to eliminate this virus, and get back to work in about 6 weeks.

 

[The Atheist]

Fair enough, I wasn't clear. What I meant by "the same thing" is an annual phenomenon of respiratory illness attributed to viruses of one kind or another, this year being heavily attributed to the newly discovered Covid 19 virus, but not appreciably different in terms of case rates, spread, and fatalities but with the illusion of being so because of extreme levels of testing and reporting and media hysteria and the attendant societal hysteria.

Ask yourself this:

China was vilified at the start for trying to cover up, then mobilised the entire country to stop it, at astronomical cost. Would they have bothered if the number of deaths and severity of cases was "same as 'flu"?

The other message I'm seeing here is that if you feel secure because you're in a less densely populated place, you shouldn't. It's not spreading at a faster rate in the big crowded cities than in the small towns or quiet countryside. Not one bit.

That's an excellent point.

New Zealand can be predicted to eliminate this virus, and get back to work in about 6 weeks.

You aiming for a new Tui Billboard, mate?

 

[Marcus]

Which is to say: we throw our best solution at this problem with an immunization program incorporating federal, state, local, community organizations, the works, at it.

To stop it from looking like what is happening right now.

Pardon me, just spring-boarding your thought back towards the central point.

We do a lot to stop the "regular flu."

Yes, we should also put a lot of effort into covid vaccines, and we are. Going forward, the yearly covid vaccine updates in future years may be a bit easier than the flu vaccines as it doesn't seem to mutate as much.

 

[Dr.Sid]

You aiming for a new Tui Billboard, mate?

Edited by Agatha: 

Removed breach of rule 11 and rule 12

 

[Meadmaker]

And you'll probably also just say it was because of all the extreme measures we took. Which is a non-falsifiable argument. Out of curiosity, what outcome, to you, would prove me right? In other words, what has to happen for you to "be rather surprised"?

The self proclaimed experts are saying there will be 100,000 deaths in the US if we do the sort of extreme measures we are doing now. So, if we end up not doing nearly that bad, you'll be right.


Take a look, though, and make sure that those refrigeration trucks are actually a contingency. I don't think they are.

 

[Meadmaker]

Kind of, except maybe not...if you watch the 10 minute vid of the German pulmonologist, he says that 7-15% of flu cases ARE coronaviruses and are included in the statistics. And that now ALL flu where this coronavirus is detected are being counted as "coronavirus".

You said you weren't a conspiracy theorist, but you're watching a Gernman pulmonologist and.....sounds like a CT.

No. The tests don't detect "a coronavirus", they detect specific RNA sequences for this coronavirus.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The measures being taken to reduce the spread of Covid19 will reduce the spread of all other infectious diseases too. So of course flu numbers are down.

It's also nearing the end of flu season. It should be diminishing now anyway.

 

[casebro]

Your post is full of straw.

What are you trying to prove insisting someone make phone calls for you?

What state are you in?

Lets see if I can use small words: We need to make a prediction of how the epidemic will effect the mass population based on a cohort of the mass population. Not a bunch of elderly folks sequestered on a cruise liner, nor one of several cohorts of patients showing signs. The staff at the Life Care Center in Kirkland is the closest we have. No samples needed, time since exposure has already shown to the subjects just how their own response to the exposure has been. Simply gathering that data will teach us more than a bazillion "experts" on the news. If that cohort is too small, combine it with the cohorts if the choir and the govt meeting, since those also consisted of healthy individuals freely going about their lives. You know, like you and I want to be. Lets get REAL risk rates.

Show me the straw.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Italy's health system isn't being overwhelmed, its health system in Lombardy/Milan is. We have seen this before in certain places. Israel in 2015, for example, or Boston in 2013.

Is this coming from some alt-right social media circle?

Gee, only Northern Italy is overwhelmed. Well that sure makes a difference.

In the North:
AP: Italy hopes virus is easing but fears new onslaught in south

Italy, one of the hot spots in the global pandemic, has by far the most virus deaths of any nation in the world, a grim tally that reached 9,134 as of Friday...

Some 500 medical personnel at the hospital are infected, and Lorini said he has found himself treating colleagues, friends, children of friends and parents of friends in his overwhelmed 88-bed ICU that serves a city of 120,000.

He marvels that he is still standing and wonders if maybe he was infected early on with slight symptoms and developed immunity. Nationwide, at least 50 doctors have died and 6,414 medical personnel have tested positive

Now in the South:

But the need is also growing in the south, where hospitals are even less prepared and equipped than the prosperous north. In one week, Puglia in the “heel” of the Italian peninsula went from 478 cases to 1,182, with a doubling of ICU patients. Campania also doubled its caseload to 1,310 and tripled the number of people in ICUs.

“It’s a matter of hours, not days,” the governor of the Campania region that includes Naples wrote to the central government, complaining that his urgent requests for ventilators had gone unheeded. “There is a real chance of adding a tragedy of the south to the tragedy of the north.”

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

But those things are preparations for a presumed pending catastrophe, not evidence that one has happened yet, or will happen.

So it's not a catastrophe until it's over?