Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Ulf Nereng]

Florida preacher arrested for holding a huge service despite the no large gathering order:''
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/florida-pastor-arrested-river-church/index.html

Some good news at a time like this is always welcome.

They should charge him with attempted mass murder.

 

[Sherkeu]

Having said that, something interesting happened today. Everyone using the social media Line received a message from the Ministry of Health asking the recipients to report their symptoms, if any, and various other data about how they conduct themselves to avoid getting the new coronavirus.

That could actually be a good idea, which may have some useful findings.

This is good. If most of the population responds, it will give them a better map showing the high risk areas. I wish we did that here, especially for the people whose mild symptoms don't require them telling anyone about it.

There is one map here, though limited to just tracking fevers registered on Kinsa smart thermometers, it definitely meshes with the problem areas.
see the map here: https://healthweather.us/

 

[The Atheist]

I don't know. I think it makes sense to say that singing (and other activities that intensify the use of your lungs) could aerosolize the virus.

"Could", sure. But to this extent?

The choir claims it had distancing, so they're standing 1.5m apart, yet one person (Patient 0) managed to infect half of the people.

That means that patient 0 infected every single person standing within 4.5 metres (that's a whopping 15 feet) of him/her, including people to the rear. It patient 0 only infected people to the front & sides, they would have had to infect every single person within six metres (19 feet) of them.

While singing.

Not buying it, sorry.

Anyone have an idea how often this might be happening?

It'd be nice to know, but I doubt there's any kind of reliable stats.

I expect having 'flu and Covid-19 is a bad mix for anyone.

Having said that, something interesting happened today. Everyone using the social media Line received a message from the Ministry of Health asking the recipients to report their symptoms, if any, and various other data about how they conduct themselves to avoid getting the new coronavirus.

That could actually be a good idea, which may have some useful findings.

Damn right, and I don't understand the reluctance to test in the idiot countries having that approach, and we're one of them.

Are they scared of the numbers, just absurdly ignorant, or both?

Aside from being direct help in reducing spread, one thing we desperately need is data.

 

[William Parcher]

Some good news at a time like this is always welcome.

A large gathering is not good news and is not welcome at all.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

....within 4.5 metres (that's a whopping 15 feet) of him/her, including people to the rear.

Maybe the 15 that didn't get infected were in the rear...

 

[William Parcher]

They should charge him with attempted mass murder.

Don't forget to charge everyone who was there with that same crime.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Looks like the "don't wear a mask" fraud is ending in hawaii at least

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu". We have this German doctor:

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.

So we have we now have the US government on record as officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".

Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.

 

[casebro]

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu". We have this German doctor:

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.

So we have we now have the US government on record as officiall reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".

Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.

uh huh. It agrees with what I said in post 931. TPTB do not want to tell us it is all a tempest in a test tube. That wouldn't get anybody any votes.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu". We have this German doctor:

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.

So we have we now have the US government on record as officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".

Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.

It is BS. I mean 0.1% is BS.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

For starters it's not " just like the flu", it's " in addition to the flu ", and why we have field hospitals in Central Park..

 

[eeyore1954]

Anybody watching the numbers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It has projections of hospitalizations and deaths by state (U.S. only). This was only one of two sites I found that actually provide projections. Their projections are now hitting the news.

The projection numbers dropped very significantly today. By a lot. A whole lot. Their peak projections seem very early to me. And much lower than I would expect. I was trying to do my own projections, but mostly gave up because there are too many unknown variables.

Why do they project that the need for ICU beds and ventilators will peak before the peak for regular hospital beds?

And what is up with their projection for Iowa? They are projecting extremely small numbers for Iowa even in comparison to Nebraska and South Dakota and North Dakota where there are far fewer known cases and where there is smaller growth and three should continue to be slower spread.

And they show the peak in Iowa at April 15, which is also what their website says should be the peak for the U.S. But the progression in Iowa is at least 15 days behind places like New York, California, Washington, etc. There is no way the peak will be at the same time.

I have been seeing references to this website more in the news. And statements from local and state officials and hospitals are referencing it directly or seem to be referencing data form it. And making decisions based on this data.

It seems like something is wrong here.

I wonder if they were doing predictions for a while now and if so how correct were those from a few weeks ago.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

For starters it's not " just like the flu", it's " in addition to the flu ", and why we have field hospitals in Central Park..

No. Everything I'm looking at is indicating that flu numbers are down while coronavirus numbers are up. In other words, same thing. And as you can see in the article I posted from last year, tent hospitals aren't a new thing during flu outbreaks.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

It is BS. I mean 0.1% is BS.

Now that, I'd be interested in. Why are the projections wrong? Fauci doesn't have a history of downplaying things. If anything, the opposite (see his AIDS predictions from years ago).

 

[Mader Levap]

COVID-19 denialism belongs to conspiracy section, methinks.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

No. Everything I'm looking at is indicating that flu numbers are down while coronavirus numbers are up. In other words, same thing. And as you can see in the article I posted from last year, tent hospitals aren't a new thing during flu outbreaks.

They are new in Central Park.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

When the Twin Towers were attacked and fell one after the other on 9/11, I couldn't understand why there was such fuss and crying about the second tower falling. It was the same thing as the other one.

The analogy fails. So far, globally, we have ~35k deaths. Of course they each matter, but statistically that is but a drop in the bucket from a normal flu year. I'm just not seeing how this equates to a "second tower". It still seems to be part of the first tower, as the German pulmologist I linked to says.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

COVID-19 denialism belongs to conspiracy section, methinks.

I don't think what I've posted counts as denialism. I'm not saying there is any conspiracy, I am looking at publically available information and statistics and asking legitimate questions. The fact that you brush off the questions as "conspiracy theory" rather than answering them says a lot.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

They are new in Central Park.

They can put them anywhere they want, it doesn't change the numbers.

 

[Pixel42]

No. Everything I'm looking at is indicating that flu numbers are down while coronavirus numbers are up. In other words, same thing.

The measures being taken to reduce the spread of Covid19 will reduce the spread of all other infectious diseases too. So of course flu numbers are down.