Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Delphic Oracle]

Another 24.3% growth. We've doubled in 3 days.

 

[Abooga]

Thanks! I'd seen that but forgotten it; it's certainly highly relevant. Unfortunately to be really useful one would also need to know how many people from Vò were hospitalized/died. Someone knows that, but is the information publicly available? I've not manged to find it. It's not the best name for searching!

https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-52010013

There isn´t much data about this, in the BBC article I linked, it says they found 89 people infected, 50/75% of which were asymptomatic.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

The death toll in the US will pass a Thousand tommorow for sure, if it has not done so in one of this evenings updates.

Over 1,000 (1,037) just now.

So, will be over 2,000 by Sunday at the current rate of increase. And over 4,000 by next Wednesday.

Let’s hope not, but it seems inevitable.

 

[wobs]

Sorry if this has already been posted from 2017...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41...e4n7T8_Bu8eKOoGIf595T-voDow6UIe7dD_i2edDCQjz8

And they warn that a deadly outbreak could emerge again: the cave where the elements of SARS were found is just 1 kilometre from the nearest village, and genetic mixing among the viral strains is fast. “The risk of spillover into people and emergence of a disease similar to SARS is possible,” the authors write in their paper.

And a study shared by a scientist friend of mine:

 

[Mader Levap]

This arises in the context of a draft paper from a group in Oxford (I'm not sure I want to link to it, as I think it is essentially misinformation) saying that perhaps (but they put it a bit stronger) 50% of the UK population was already infected by 19/3/2020. I think this is likely very far from the truth, and a dangerous claim to spread (it might cause people to think there is no longer any point in reducing contacts).

Yup, it can't be true. Otherwise there would be already tons of deaths of 60+ and other vulnerable population in UK.

Impossible to cover up, at most they could do it Russia-style assigning it as "pneumonia" or other nonsense. Do we know about any weird spikes of totally different deaths in various countries like UK or Japan lately?

 

[dudalb]

Looks as though New Orleans will be the next major city to be hard hit by the virus.
Of course this is an old story for the Big Easy. It was very hard hit by the Cholera Pandemic of 1846.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Yup, it can't be true. Otherwise there would be already tons of deaths of 60+ and other vulnerable population in UK.

Impossible to cover up, at most they could do it Russia-style assigning it as "pneumonia" or other nonsense. Do we know about any weird spikes of totally different deaths in various countries like UK or Japan lately?

Hey, my partner is one of the 'they'!

 

[Fast Eddie B]

It looks like the US just passed Italy in total cases, now #2 behind only China.

Likely will surpass China within a matter of days.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

It looks like the US just passed Italy in total cases, now #2 behind only China.



Likely will surpass China within a matter of days.

Worldometer says U.S. has most active cases and new cases today.

 

[dudalb]

It looks like the US just passed Italy in total cases, now #2 behind only China.

Likely will surpass China within a matter of days.

And half of the US will never know it becauxe it will be never be mentioned on Fox News.

 

[Mader Levap]

Matter of days? More like one day.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

It looks like the US just passed Italy in total cases, now #2 behind only China.

Not sure why that is significant considering the US population is more than five times that of Italy..

 

[casebro]

Yup, it can't be true. Otherwise there would be already tons of deaths of 60+ and other vulnerable population in UK.

Impossible to cover up, at most they could do it Russia-style assigning it as "pneumonia" or other nonsense. Do we know about any weird spikes of totally different deaths in various countries like UK or Japan lately?

But the point of it was that if NO WAIT, 19-3-2020 was only a week ago, too soon for many deaths that would even need to be covered up.

 

[Steve]

Not sure why that is significant considering the US population is more than five times that of Italy..

Significant perhaps because the growth of cases in the USA increases every day with no sign of slowing down.

 

[Belz...]

Another 24.3% growth. We've doubled in 3 days.

Edited by zooterkin: 

<SNIP>
Edited for rule 0 and rule 12.

 

[eeyore1954]

And half of the US will never know it becauxe it will be never be mentioned on Fox News.

You give Fox News some pretty high ratings. 1/2 of the US.

 

[Planigale]

Yup, it can't be true. Otherwise there would be already tons of deaths of 60+ and other vulnerable population in UK.

Impossible to cover up, at most they could do it Russia-style assigning it as "pneumonia" or other nonsense. Do we know about any weird spikes of totally different deaths in various countries like UK or Japan lately?

I know I keep on recommending it but the centre for evidence based medicine at Oxford University has a good site on mortality.
https://www.cebm.net/england-and-wales-mortality-during-the-covid-19-outbreak/
These graphs will answer your question. Currently overall mortality remains below average and even looking at respiratory deaths the rate is steady. There is a lag time in the figures coming through. So no large number of concealed deaths.

 

[crescent]

Not sure why that is significant considering the US population is more than five times that of Italy..

Significant perhaps because the growth of cases in the USA increases every day with no sign of slowing down.

The U.S. daily rate of increase is about 25%, Italy is at about 10%.

Sadly. we'll catch up with Italy's overall numbers today or tomorrow. We'll surpass the per capita infected population density in a week or so. We are probably already above the per-capita rate that Italy had when their death rate really started to climb.

Worst of all, our death rate is also growing much faster, still averaging well above 20% daily this week.

Things are getting worse. Denialism won't hold forever. Not that it matters, as the denialism will just shift flavors from the "we have fewer than other nations" to "we are over-counting deaths and under-counting infections".

 

[The Atheist]

This arises in the context of a draft paper from a group in Oxford (I'm not sure I want to link to it, as I think it is essentially misinformation) saying that perhaps (but they put it a bit stronger) 50% of the UK population was already infected by 19/3/2020.

I'd like you to post the link, please.

I've been saying since early on that the maths just isn't adding up with Covid-19 and I don't think any theories can be completely dismissed at the moment.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

My latest point of confusion: if significant amounts of transmission are from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic victims, what does that imply about the major method of transmission? Are there enough random coughs and sneezes due to other causes to keep a large supply of viruses available to infect other people? Is there some other means by which viruses get out?