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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Is there any place that presents the current infections by population centers only ...i.e. without regard to borders?
And also takes out returning/repatriated travelers so that I could see community transmissions?

I'd just like to see a map that tells about cases spreading within a geographical place. Not the imports.
 
The death toll in the US will pass a Thousand tommorow for sure, if it has not done so in one of this evenings updates.
What's that about 15 and going down?
 
Looks as though New Orleans is going to be the next big city hard hit.
Atlanta also looks as if it will be bad also.
And the Governor of Florida is blaming the Corona virus outbreak on New York. Man is sturly a moron.
 
Sherkeu said:
Is there any place that presents the current infections by population centers only ...i.e. without regard to borders?
And also takes out returning/repatriated travelers so that I could see community transmissions?

I'd just like to see a map that tells about cases spreading within a geographical place. Not the imports.
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It's spreading locally. I'm unclear what you are looking for you don't have.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Incompetrump is mine. :D
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It is a hashtag on twitter. Your influence must be great.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/incompetrump?lang=en

Here is an interesting chart. Show how death rate is going up in different countries. It highlights how many days it takes for the number of deaths to double compared with other countries. To get on this list a country needs 25 deaths and measurements start from there.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

For those that do not want to click on the link
South Korea and Japan are doing the best. The USA was doing well, but now is racing towards disaster. Spain and Italy are disaster zones.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
It's spreading locally. I'm unclear what you are looking for you don't have.
Click to expand...

Do you know a site that show how it is spreading?

What I want to see are the number of people that get infected AT THAT LOCATION. Not arriving from somewhere else with it and then being reported in a city/county/state/province/country stat as if it happened there.

There's no way to know how it spreads in certain locations if numbers include all these imports- they should be listed but separated out. Also, in the maps I see, borders cut stats between countries which doesnt tell the true story. e.g. If a big outbreak is happening in an area at the border of Iran and Pakistan, I'd like to see that total, and not individual country stats separated. Like looking at a borderless community spread.

Does that make sense?
 
Sherkeu said:
Do you know a site that show how it is spreading?

What I want to see are the number of people that get infected AT THAT LOCATION. Not arriving from somewhere else with it and then being reported in a city/county/state/province/country stat as if it happened there.

There's no way to know how it spreads in certain locations if numbers include all these imports- they should be listed but separated out. Also, in the maps I see, borders cut stats between countries which doesnt tell the true story. e.g. If a big outbreak is happening in an area at the border of Iran and Pakistan, I'd like to see that total, and not individual country stats separated. Like looking at a borderless community spread.

Does that make sense?
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If you're interested in a specific place google the city and coronavirus. Many county health departments report some details. For instance Lubbock TX until very recently had no cases. Then, a few weeks ago a few started coming in. Each was investigated and ascribed to either community spread (unknown but local), spread from an identified person earlier, or an external import (Texas Tech has a lot of people from all over the country) . initially, the large majority were from imports, now it's mostly community spread. This is typical. Once it starts showing up somewhere it becomes largely community spread within just a few weeks.
 
marting said:
If you're interested in a specific place google the city and coronavirus. Many county health departments report some details. For instance Lubbock TX until very recently had no cases. Then, a few weeks ago a few started coming in. Each was investigated and ascribed to either community spread (unknown but local), spread from an identified person earlier, or an external import (Texas Tech has a lot of people from all over the country) . initially, the large majority were from imports, now it's mostly community spread. This is typical. Once it starts showing up somewhere it becomes largely community spread within just a few weeks.
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Thanks. I really just want to see the whole picture. Lubbock happens to be pretty isolated. Brownsville/Matamoros area would be more something I'd like to see plotted on a map and not separated between US/Mexico. Think of it as looking at the Earth without any consideration to countries. Just look at places with a certain density of humans.
And then only count humans who caught the virus in that place.
 
I had previously posted about excess attributable mortality, and that not all patients dying from covid will be excess mortality because they will be 'expected' deaths.

When looking at flu mortality we often look at excess deaths. There are deaths directly due to flu, usually due to pneumonia. But in the weeks after flu there are more than expected deaths from strokes and heart attacks. Infections often increase the 'stickiness' of blood and clotting events - thromboses significantly increase following an infection. These deaths are called excess attributable deaths, these can only be measured in retrospect. It is very likely we will see an excess of these events following the covid outbreak.

On the other hand, many of those dying are elderly with chronic health problems. Some will have died anyway even if Covid had not been present. In retrospect we will also find that excess mortality due to Covid may be less than total covid deaths because of inevitable deaths e.g. terminal cancer where the final event might have been covid today but would otherwise have been e.g. flu tomorrow. Finally because social distancing will reduce e.g. flu cases there will be fewer deaths from other respiratory infections.
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Prof Fergusson newly recovered from covid himself has estimated expected mortality at about 2/3. So the excess mortality directly attributable to covid will be 1/3 of total deaths.
 
Planigale said:
Prof Fergusson newly recovered from covid himself has estimated expected mortality at about 2/3. So the excess mortality directly attributable to covid will be 1/3 of total deaths.
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We'll know soon enough anyway, but don't forget to factor in the lives saved through less pollution, so you get a fair picture.

I doubt the 2/3, but I'll wait to see.
 
The Atheist said:
And does Japan already know something but just not saying it?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-...s-to-stay-home-to-avoid-coronavirus-explosion

It also yet again raises the question of if it's rampant, why aren't they weeing the deaths & severe cases at levels in Italy & Spain?
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My interpretation of the article is that they're trying to avoid it becoming as rampant as it is in Italy and Spain (and increasingly the UK and US) - because there are fears of a second wave of infection.
 
JoeMorgue said:
"I used to think I high a strong immune system. Turns out I just didn't hang out with tiny people who sneeze directly into your eyeball while telling you a story" - New Parent
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I used to think I had a strong immune system. Turns out I worked in cubicles, and since my employer decided to go for open space offices, I'm sick way more often.
 
angrysoba said:
Ha! I know what you mean.

Yes, things are basically going on more or less as before, but there are requests to avoid various kinds of activities.

Municipal gyms and museums and other stuff that local and central governments can control are more or less shut down. That includes schools, or at least it did, but they are due to open again.

The thing is people are getting complacent given that here in Japan we haven't shot off the end of ramp yet like so many other countries.

I remember a few weeks ago my sisters in England and in France assuming we had been locked down, when all that was going on was school closures. Then the countries they lived in seemed to blow right past us. I was pretty surprised that they had still been going to crowded pubs, international rugby matches, restaurants, church etc... and treating it as no big thing to.... complete lockdown. Things happened very quickly (but not quickly enough!).

But yes, Japan still has workdays and weekends, but I really do think it is going to move the same way, and in Japan that could be severe given that we have the oldest population in the world here.
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I'm in Tokyo, and I can confirm this.

I commute every day by train for an hour and a half each way. Life in Tokyo goes on pretty much as normal. More people are wearing masks than usual (myself included), but that's about the only noticeable difference. Any different in Osaka? The cherry blossoms are blooming now.
 
UK figures for deaths is lower than it should be because the Govt are saying they can't release information about deaths without permission from next of kin because of 'Data protection rules'

Do we believe them?
 
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