2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Skeptic Ginger]

What would you consider to be evidence that the White House, or anyone for that matter, had a handle on it?

I think $8.3b is a pretty good start. President Trump suggested 8.5 .

They sure don't have a handle on it here in King County. It is spreading with little effort to stop it.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's hand sanitizer all the way down.

 

[William Parcher]

Touch the sanitizer plunger -> sanitize hands

If you do it in that order you should be okay.

Start talking about people who carry their sanitizer bottle in their pocket or otherwise have to grab the bottle to use it.

 

[xjx388]

Yes. But don't twist that to think that I believe it's everywhere or that it being everywhere is even remotely feasible. It's not.

Explain how it’s not “even remotely feasible.” If I’m wrong, I’m wrong but it’ll take more than bare assertions to convince me.

Heck, I’m willing to offer you the odds I quoted: I’ll bet $5 USD to your $1 USD that after widespread testing is instituted and the epidemiological data is assessed (say six months from now), this bug was much more widespread than we currently realize but most cases were indistinguishable from a bad case of the common cold.

 

[arthwollipot]

Start talking about people who carry their sanitizer bottle in their pocket or otherwise have to grab the bottle to use it.

Grab bottle from pocket with one hand. Get germs on that hand. Apply sanitiser to other hand. Return bottle to pocket. Rub both hands together to sanitise. No germs on either hand.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Keep an eye on New Zealand - we've had cases at workplaces, schools and an entire steel mill and nothing's been shut. We're about to have a round of Super Rugby this weekend, with large crowds at several locations.

If it explodes here, you'll know it would have been a good idea..

Well that was fast.

I can tell you from the experience here, it is spreading from people before symptoms start (even if only a day or so) and public health is still telling people only to stay home if you have symptoms.

Even with some people here they knew were exposed, they told them not to worry about self quarantine.

So, let's put this nonsense together. Come here from Wuhan or the Diamond Princess without symptoms and you are told to self quarantine for 2 weeks.

But if you are a family member that spent time in the Life Care Center, clearly exposed because we know one visitor took it home to N Carolina, you are told you don't need to self quarantine unless you develop symptoms.

Go figure.

Add to that, one family member did develop symptoms and his own doctor told him it didn't sound like coronavirus, no need to get tested.

This is what the family members testified to today at a press conference they called because they were so frustrated with getting nowhere with public health and the facility staff.

Know what the news decided to show in a clip of the press conference? A woman saying how beautiful her now deceased mother was. Not the family member's very real concerns the contagion was still being spread. No what else they said in the family conference? A family visitor died yesterday from coronavirus.

One of the news channels is trying to address it, no one answered their question at Pence's boring press conference here.

There are several deaths from the Life Care Center not yet tested, so the death count is higher than reported.

 

[William Parcher]

Grab bottle from pocket with one hand...

Now the bottle is an infected surface and remains infected until you sanitize the bottle. This is my whole point which isn't being understood.

 

[xjx388]

Stop trying to change your story.

That’s not an explanation.

I haven’t changed my story; if anything, I was unclear in my meaning and speaking very loosely.

Now, with what I’ve read, I maintain that if the window for initial infection was open since October, the bug has already spread more than we currently understand. It’s here in the US and has been since at least mid December, but probably earlier. It was already much too late when China tried to contain it in January.

 

[xjx388]

Well that was fast.

I can tell you from the experience here, it is spreading from people before symptoms start (even if only a day or so) and public health is still telling people only to stay home if you have symptoms.

Even with some people here they knew were exposed, they told them not to worry about self quarantine.

So, let's put this nonsense together. Come here from Wuhan or the Diamond Princess without symptoms and you are told to self quarantine for 2 weeks.

But if you are a family member that spent time in the Life Care Center, clearly exposed because we know one visitor took it home to N Carolina, you are told you don't need to self quarantine unless you develop symptoms.

Go figure.

Add to that, one family member did develop symptoms and his own doctor told him it didn't sound like coronavirus, no need to get tested.

This is what the family members testified to today at a press conference they called because they were so frustrated with getting nowhere with public health and the facility staff.

Know what the news decided to show in a clip of the press conference? A woman saying how beautiful her now deceased mother was. Not the family member's very real concerns the contagion was still being spread.

Now, start that in Nov/Dec...

 

[arthwollipot]

Now the bottle is an infected surface and remains infected until you sanitize the bottle. This is my whole point which isn't being understood.

But it doesn't matter because you sanitise your hands immediately after handling it!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's constantly mutating. Measuring it's mutations is how we tracked it back in time.

Keep in mind, some of the mutations can act as a markers for tracking related infections without necessarily changing the virus.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

And just in - this is why it's everywhere: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/120069317/coronavirus-ministry-of-health-updates-on-outbreak

Someone else with the virus was walking back and forth through Grand Central Station (commuting) and now cases are breaking out in NY.

 

[Roboramma]

Could be that or even 2-3 months before China clamped down. I'm not suggesting that it's been here for years.

A person in China contracts it in October, spreads it a bit locally. Some of those people travel and spread it elsewhere. Extend that out for a month or two before we ever heard of coronavirus. I'm suggesting that it's very possible that this thing was out of the gate long before they tried to shut it.

There has been widespread testing all throughout China for at least several weeks. As I mentioned earlier at apartment buildings around Shanghai the security guards test the temperature of everyone who enters the building and those who show a high temperature are reported as potential cases.

A friend of mine told me two of his close friends were put in to quarantine on returning to Shanghai from Singapore when they were reported by their building's security.

Given this sort of thing, if the virus has been spreading around China at least for significantly long periods of time prior to Hubei being shut down, why are the case numbers outside of Hubei so much smaller than within it? It's not lack of testing.

 

[William Parcher]

But it doesn't matter because you sanitise your hands immediately after handling it!

An infected bottle is in your pocket. Don't you understand that people need to understand that?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Start talking about people who carry their sanitizer bottle in their pocket or otherwise have to grab the bottle to use it.

I have been wetting my hands with the sanitizer and before it dries I spread it on my steering wheel, my keys, the bottle, the car door handle and wherever I think there could be contamination from my hands. Try that.

 

[angrysoba]

The Guardian has now updated its "myths" page. This one is not so much a myth as clarifying information for anyone who wants to claim "I told you it was mutating!"

Claim: it is mutating into a more deadly strain
All viruses accumulate mutations over time and the virus that causes Covid-19 is no different. How widespread different strains of a virus become depends on natural selection – the versions that can propagate quickest and replicate effectively in the body will be the most “successful”. This doesn’t necessarily mean most dangerous for people though, as viruses that kill people rapidly or make them so sick that they are incapacitated may be less likely to be transmitted.

Genetic analysis by Chinese scientists of 103 samples of the virus, taken from patients in Wuhan and other cities, suggests that early on two main strains emerged, designated L and S. Although the L strain appeared to be more prevalent than the S strain (about 70% of the samples belonged to the former), the S branch of the virus was found to be the ancestral version.
The team behind this research suggested that this may indicate the L strain is more “aggressive”, either transmitting more easily or replicating faster inside the body. However, this theory is speculative at this stage – there haven’t yet been direct comparisons to see whether people who catch one version of the virus are more likely to pass it on or suffer more severe symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-deadly-strain-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

 

[arthwollipot]

An infected bottle is in your pocket. Don't you understand that people need to understand that?

It doesn't matter if you sanitise your hands after every time you handle it.

 

[William Parcher]

I have been wetting my hands with the sanitizer and before it dries I spread it on my steering wheel, my keys, the bottle, the car door handle and wherever I think there could be contamination from my hands. Try that.

Now you are talking.

 

[William Parcher]

It doesn't matter if you sanitise your hands after every time you handle it.

The world needs to understand that which has just come to your understanding. The world is bigger than just you.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That’s not an explanation.

I haven’t changed my story; if anything, I was unclear in my meaning and speaking very loosely.

Now, with what I’ve read, I maintain that if the window for initial infection was open since October, the bug has already spread more than we currently understand. It’s here in the US and has been since at least mid December, but probably earlier. It was already much too late when China tried to contain it in January.

You need to look more closely at the cases here in the US, they pretty much all stem from people who traveled here from areas with active virus.

You keep conflating your claims from

If it appeared in humans in November 2019, that means it spread in China at least somewhat before anyone knew what it was. Which means, given the travel to and from China, it could have spread all over the world. Ergo, it was likely out of control before they really implemented containment measures in very late December, early January. Which fits with the evidence of people unconnected with China or known cases testing positive “in the wild.”

Then you shift to the cases circulating here which did not happen in Oct and Nov 2019, or even in Dec. They all happened here well after the first cases turned up in Wuhan.