2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[The Atheist]

Big numbers everywhere today - I cannot think of a single reason why WHO hasn't declared a pandemic yet.

The slightly promising sign is it isn't spreading anywhere near as fast as you'd expect, with cases outside China not rising exponentially.

I think that means we're seeing far more mild cases than WHO is letting on.

We have four official cases in NZ, but I'm certain it's been circulating for weeks.

 

[arthwollipot]

Nothing supports the idea that this virus has been in the population for a long time or that every doctor's office would be detecting this now if they tested for it.

Coronaviruses have been in the population for a long time. They are one of the several types of virus that cause the common cold. This novel strain of coronavirus has not been circulating for a long time.

 

[theprestige]

OK. But you understand we have good reason to know when it first existed now, right?

Yes.

Do you understand we have good reason to think it was spreading in November-December, before being detected in January, and that we have good reason to think it has spread further than we are yet able to detect?

 

[dudalb]

Coronaviruses have been in the population for a long time. They are one of the several types of virus that cause the common cold. This novel strain of coronavirus has not been circulating for a long time.

I am not a biologist, but any chance it could have mutated?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Three and a half months seems like a pretty long time.

If it started in October, and didn't get detected by Chinese authorities until January, and attempts to mitigate the spread didn't start until around that time, then how could there not be widespread circulation by now?

As I understand it, there isn't even widespread testing yet, to rule out widespread circulation.

Don't confuse the two things, genome epidemiological investigation into the origin (patient zero) of the pandemic, and current undercounted cases.

You are suggesting it might have circulated widely before it circulated widely.

That's nonsense. If that were the case (no evidence) then you would expect to find a significantly different version of coronavirus circulated and this was a new strain that emerged. And remnants of the parent clade would be found to still be circulating and one could connect the dots via their genomes.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

“A long time,” for a virus like this could be 2-3 months.

It was in Washington State more or less six weeks, based on the genome epidemiology, before the first cases were identified on January 20th. China didn’t lock down until January 23.

So it was likely already in Washington in late December, a month before we ever heard of it. Why couldn’t it have been elsewhere, looking like the common cold? That’s the part I’m not getting.

Give up. I have nothing more to say except go read some more.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Nobody was ever suggesting that.


If it's been around since October, then it's probably spread a lot further than we realize, and the data won't catch up until we have widespread testing of all flu-like cases.

Doesn't work that way, at least not this particular disease.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Uh no. I’m suggesting it existed before we knew it existed.
It was in Washington about six weeks before the first cases there were identified, which means mid to late December. Would you agree that the data supports at least that much?

Assuming so, why couldn’t it have been other places that early or even earlier?

No, you don't have the story straight. The first case here from which the rest spread was the case of a person in Everett who was exposed through travel. He was identified, isolated, and released from quarantine after his tests were negative three times. (Separate story, he relapsed though asymptomatically so far).

The latest cases here are closely genetically related and have a mutation marker other cases don't have.

Here's a good source for you:
Hutch Science: COVID-19

Where you will find this reported in the NYT: NYT: Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests

Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest that the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.

Washington had the United States’ first confirmed case of coronavirus, announced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Jan. 20. Based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence, another case that surfaced in the state and was announced on Friday probably was descended from that first case.

The two people live in the same county, but are not known to have had contact with one another, and the second case occurred well after the first would no longer be expected to be contagious. So the genetic findings suggest that the virus has been spreading through other people in the community for close to six weeks...

Six weeks in WA State, not all over the place in the US. Though by now, it is all over the place in the US from multi-foci.

 

[arthwollipot]

I am not a biologist, but any chance it could have mutated?

Are you asking whether the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a mutated strain of an existing common-cold causing coronavirus? I guess it's possible but I'm not a biologist either. Didn't we get this one from an animal vector?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes, in October-November 2019. I have made it pretty clear this is what I’m working from.

You changed your story.

This is what you said:

If it appeared in humans in November 2019, that means it spread in China at least somewhat before anyone knew what it was. Which means, given the travel to and from China, it could have spread all over the world. Ergo, it was likely out of control before they really implemented containment measures in very late December, early January. Which fits with the evidence of people unconnected with China or known cases testing positive “in the wild.”

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Are you asking whether the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV is a mutated strain of an existing common-cold causing coronavirus? I guess it's possible but I'm not a biologist either. Didn't we get this one from an animal vector?

There is zero genome evidence for this.

 

[William Parcher]

There is zero genome evidence for this.

You had better specify which of his two questions you just answered.

 

[arthwollipot]

There is zero genome evidence for this.

There you go.

You had better specify which of his two questions you just answered.

I assumed the first one, which was the one that the response actually answered.

 

[William Parcher]

I assumed the first one, which was the one that the response actually answered.

It could have been an answer for the second question and that's why I said it needed clarification.

 

[Meadmaker]

Got the news today that FIRST Robotics is cancelling an event scheduled for this weekend in King County, Washington.

No surprises there. A lot of schools are closed, and there are guidelines about events. Apparently, the guidelines said don't have it. This was a district competition, which means it would have hosted about 40 teams and up to about 2,000 people. The event would have begun tonight with pit setup, and carried on Friday and Saturday.

I can only assume that lots and lots of high school sports are being cancelled up there.

I just hope that doesn't happen here, but I'm rather gloomy about our prospects. So far, we have no confirmed cases in Michigan, and our teams are setting up for their events tonight.


The worst thing is not the cancellation itself. The worst thing is that it might be a good idea.

 

[arthwollipot]

It could have been an answer for the second question and that's why I said it needed clarification.

Not really, but sure.

 

[dudalb]

And the Stock Market took another 1000 point virus related hit today.
Irony is that the thing that would most calm the markets is evidence that the White House is finally getting a handle on the virus is the think least likely to happen anytime soon.

 

[xjx388]

No, you don't have the story straight. The first case here from which the rest spread was the case of a person in Everett who was exposed through travel. He was identified, isolated, and released from quarantine after his tests were negative three times. (Separate story, he relapsed though asymptomatically so far).

The latest cases here are closely genetically related and have a mutation marker other cases don't have.

Here's a good source for you:
Hutch Science: COVID-19

Where you will find this reported in the NYT: NYT: Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests Six weeks in WA State, not all over the place in the US. Though by now, it is all over the place in the US from multi-foci.

I quoted that NYT article myself. Explain why it could be in Washington in December but nowhere else in America.

 

[William Parcher]

Not really, but sure.

Anyone could (incorrectly) say that there is zero genome evidence that the virus came from animals.

 

[angrysoba]

Got the news today that FIRST Robotics is cancelling an event scheduled for this weekend in King County, Washington.

No surprises there. A lot of schools are closed, and there are guidelines about events. Apparently, the guidelines said don't have it. This was a district competition, which means it would have hosted about 40 teams and up to about 2,000 people. The event would have begun tonight with pit setup, and carried on Friday and Saturday.

I can only assume that lots and lots of high school sports are being cancelled up there.

I just hope that doesn't happen here, but I'm rather gloomy about our prospects. So far, we have no confirmed cases in Michigan, and our teams are setting up for their events tonight.


The worst thing is not the cancellation itself. The worst thing is that it might be a good idea.

You can count on lots of events being either cancelled or played behind closed doors.