2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[angrysoba]

Meanwhile, NZ, with a 50% increase in cases, is still taking no drastic measures and schools are staying open.

Happy times!

Just saw an announcement that NZ is about to go into a four week lockdown.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

My last question was addressed to casebro who is claiming that people immune to corvid-19 can pass the virus along without replication and presumably he means without it replicating in their body. And he was replying to someone talking about why the virus is in nasal mucus. So my point is that I doubt nasal linings are a way it spreads in the cases he is talking about (assuming he's correct that such cases exist).

Nose, mouth and eyes are definitely the main ways it's expected to spread between people who are infected.

I accept that conditionality has been part of the conversation and apologize for losing track of it.

CDC says it can be spread by contact with surfaces.

Correct and I was going for a snarky on-a-roll.

Not that I know of. Mouth, nose, and eyes.

I would assume any (sometimes even very minor) breaches of the skin layer, as well, perhaps.

Yes, that's good advice for not moving the virus near your mouth, nose, or eyes.

I see you feel the same snarky energy! :9

For myself, and after having watched the protocols people go through in countries doing more than ours, I'm going along with it.

Way too many people just shopping to shop and I'm "essential" so yay (believe me, I'm torn on it...I need the money but Christ, people are insane!). I've gloved up.

Going home, I turn my outer layer inside out (minus pants, because nope) before leaving the car, take my shoes off at the door, shed my outer layer into a giant ziplock bag, shower, change, and then clean the shower.

I'm pondering on how to do layer control/avoiding cross-contamination as the weather gets warm, though. Maybe just have a light outer layer in the car, crank up the A/C, and shed it before entering the house.

 

[sts60]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says the US may not necessarily follow the same path as Italy.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/us-i...sory-anthony-fauci_n_5e77b89ac5b6f5b7c5466bb2

Room for hope?
Nope.
We are already on the curve...

Based on data from the Covid Tracking Project, the known positive cases and deaths are at the moment both doubling a little over every two days. Of course, that’s just a short stretch of incomplete data, and a zillion other caveats apply. But it’s sobering to plug in a rate of doubling every three days and see 200 million positive cases and three million deaths by the end of April.

No, we’re not going to actually see those numbers, for a variety of reasons (including but not limited to increasing shutdowns and social distancing). But it’s still going to be bad and very stressing for the health care system, entirely apart from the disastrous economic effects on tens of millions of ordinary Americans. And that’s just the U.S. perspective.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The current situation in Canada

Areas in Canada with cases of COVID-19 as of March 22, 2020, 6:00 pm EDT

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of probable cases | Number of deaths
British Columbia|424|0|10
Alberta|259|0|1
Saskatchewan|33|19|0
Manitoba|11|8|0
Ontario|425|0|5
Quebec|221|0|4*
Newfoundland and Labrador|3|6|0
New Brunswick|9|8|0
Nova Scotia|28|0|0
Prince Edward Island|3|0|0
Yukon|0|0|0
Northwest Territories|1|0|0
Nunavut|0|0|0
Repatriated travellers|13|0|0
Total | 1430 | 41 | 20

Confirmed cases are up 36% from yesterday, which sort of a return to "normal" after a couple of days where the rate was below 20%

The latest points covered by CBC News

• PM hopes repatriation of Canadians abroad is 'a question of days.'
• Canada has 1,436 cases, with 20 deaths and 18 recovered/resolved cases.
• Border no longer open for routine, casual traffic between Canada and U.S
• Flight bringing Canadians home from Morocco lands in Montreal
• Global athletes group calls for postponement of Olympics.
• Impact on health-care system 'could be total collapse,' warns ICU doctor.

Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.7 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.7 for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. The page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may be different.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.7 ratio | Actual US Number | Acual Canada:US Ratio
COVID-19 tests|88,883|773,282|228,216|1:2.6
COVID-19 cases|1,470|12,789|33,889|1:23
COVID-19 deaths|21|183|428|1:20

 

[Meadmaker]

And in the better late than never department:

Automakers to make ventilators

President Donald Trump said Ford, General Motors and Tesla are able to produce ventilators and other metal products for health facilities.
GM has already been working with Ventec, a medical device company, and StopTheSpread.org to assist with increasing ventilator production.
Other Michigan companies are also stepping up to help make products outside of their normal items. On Friday, breweries and distillers were authorized to make hand sanitizer with denatured alcohol, a byproduct of the brewing process.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Final count for USA on March 22nd: 9339

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

On the other hand: Italy shows some slow down. Too soon to tell though. Yesterday was supposed to be the worst, based on models of how quick the quarantine will start to work. It was 13 days since the general quarantine. So far it grew 6.5 times since the quarantine started, and even if the max actually was yesterday, we can expect at least double that till the end. So let's say 13 times more cases from the day the quarantine starts.

 

[smartcooky]

In fact, NZ is moving to complete shutdown from Wednesday.

All schools & non-essential workplaces will close.

Yeah, Wednesday midnight we go to Level 4, so my business doors will be closed from Thursday until further notice.

 

[arthwollipot]

So I've been told I'm working from home for the next two days. I'm not looking forward to doing this job with only one small screen. But as I have already decided not to catch the bus to work this week, so not having to pay for parking for those two days will be nice.

 

[marting]

Centre for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases

New statistical analysis of underreporting by country. USA estimates are around 15% of actual infections have been reported. Germany has the highest estimated range.

Report and data on Github

https://twitter.com/cmmid_lshtm

 

[pipelineaudio]

Holy &^*((* JREF you did it! Especially whoever posted the Hammer and the Dance link! Honolulu's mayor and several others announced they will be locking us down tomorrow and right there on the screen was the hammer and the dance. Looking a bit more hopeful! Theyre going to keep the hotels open and keep the tourists, which could still be leaky, but I think itll still be much better than what was planned

 

[Giordano]

No, I'm saying the swab test that shows positive shows virus in the nose. Which does not necessarily mean you have the disease. But others assume you are a carrier even though without having the the disease you have not replicated .

I eagerly await anti-body infirmation. It will tell us who actually had the disease, crossmatch that data with whose swabs were positive and we will get an immunity rate. That should happen in days?

Meantime, Microsoft has teamed up with Illumina to use Microsoft's computer power and Illumina's genetics power to see which receptor the virus uses, and just who is immune. They'll get started next month.

If you test positive by nose swab (a pcr test) I am >99.999% certain you are infected and likely infectious. Do you know of any study that suggests otherwise? Again I doubt even pcr (technically rt pcr) is sensitive enough to detect the virus in a nose swab unless it is already replicating in you. False positives by the current pcr tests result from other mechanisms, not just surface viruses that haven’t established an infection.

Antibody tests are great for the reasons you cite. Antibodies start increasing some 7 to 10 days after an initial exposure. Much more quickly and strongly if you are exposed a second time.

 

[marting]

Holy &^*((* JREF you did it! Especially whoever posted the Hammer and the Dance link! Honolulu's mayor and several others announced they will be locking us down tomorrow and right there on the screen was the hammer and the dance. Looking a bit more hopeful! Theyre going to keep the hotels open and keep the tourists, which could still be leaky, but I think itll still be much better than what was planned

Yep, As I said in response to the dog's post. It's one of the best pieces I've seen. Good to see it having an impact at a high level!

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Okay, here's my thing.

I now have a letter stating I work for a business deemed essential and must be "given access to the area" and I have it tucked into the clip of my driveway door opener on my car visor.

Again I am both comforted and disturbed by this. That these (seemingly coming) steps will be necessary (seems like it is for checkpoints?). A scary thought, but yeah, they actually will be necessary. So good if these are signals of that starting to happen.

Also good there won't be anyone in the store that doesn't need to be. People who need supplies to fix a senior's electrical, whatever, makes sense. But the "retail therapy" sect this weekend, Ok I'll stop :9.

Also scary...I, of all people, am considered "essential personnel in operations against Covid-19."



ETA: especially for this job. The one I have a degree for but only work on for little gigs, no, that's actually completely erased right now. Right now America needs me to stock shelves. *looks around, speaks with a ridiculous faux-whisper* there wasn't even a Saturday night truck this week, 24/7 no lockdown was going to be first week of April who knows on that now, but anyways no Sunday truck. We won't have anything more than we had Friday morning until Tuesday morning when...oh, shelter in place order. Hmmm...

 

[Giordano]

Is there a good source of information that describes just what a coronavirus test actually is and how it's done?

What I mean is that I have read, and I'm pretty sure it's accurate, that this is a PCR test that looks for DNA markers (RNA?) that are unique to the SARS 2 virus.

Ok, so what does that mean? I know on "Law and Order" that means they send in a sample and it comes back identifying who the victim/killer is, in ways that make the plot interesting. I know that in real life, it involves taking some sort of bodily fluids, putting them in some sort of medium, adding some sort of chemicals, and somehow getting a computer printout that says you're 62% Irish, and have the coronavirus.

I want to know a little bit more than that.

Not that I can do anything about it, but I'm curious what the holdup is in making more test kits. I'm guessing that this "reagent" that they mention is some rather specific set of chemicals that can't be produced using things you buy at the grocery store.
If that's not it, then what the heck is the issue with producing about 500 million test kits?

So, I would like to have an "advanced layman's" guide to PCR and/or the coronavirus testing process. What I mean by that is I have a graduate degree in electrical engineering, so I'm no scientific slouch, but my eyes glaze over once specific chemical names start being used. I've always wondered how real biotech stuff, like pills, actually gets created, purified, and stuck in a powder. I don't expect to learn that in any real way, but if I could read, "This tests requires 3-9-Whattheheckisthat that can only be produced by a process that requires 85 hours of fermentation time" that would greatly increase my knowledge.

Not that it matters much, but I do find it interesting, but as long as I'm fretting about coronaviruses, I always like education.

A quick guess as to the highlighted part:

All PCR depends on an enzyme that makes extra copies of DNA. A DNA-dependent DNA polymerase. And the way PCR is performed in practice the DNA polymerase has to be of a type that is stable to periodic brief high temperatures (near boiling). My guess is that it is the availability of enough thermostable, DNA-dependent DNA polymerase that is the problem because it has to be isolated and purified from appropriate bacteria. A little complicated, whereas the other PCR reagents are mostly salts etc that one can buy in big bottles.

Another possibility: for coronavirus one has to first convert its RNA genome into a DNA copy before beginning the PCR itself. So one also needs an RNA-dependent DNA polymerase. Which also has to be isolated and purified from appropriate bacteria.

 

[Apathia]

Based on data from the Covid Tracking Project, the known positive cases and deaths are at the moment both doubling a little over every two days. Of course, that’s just a short stretch of incomplete data, and a zillion other caveats apply. But it’s sobering to plug in a rate of doubling every three days and see 200 million positive cases and three million deaths by the end of April.

No, we’re not going to actually see those numbers, for a variety of reasons (including but not limited to increasing shutdowns and social distancing). But it’s still going to be bad and very stressing for the health care system, entirely apart from the disastrous economic effects on tens of millions of ordinary Americans. And that’s just the U.S. perspective.

[Insert prayer emoji that ISF doesn't have here.]

 

[quadraginta]

Ah. Good to know a vaccine is viable.
I guess now that "real" people, are dying in numbers (e.g., USAans instead of foreign brown people) we'll see some advancement a vaccine for this one.

Geekwire (a Seattle tech news site) has reported that Moderna and the NIH have begun Phase 1 human trials of a possible vaccine. This is on an accelerated schedule, bypassing much of the animal trials that generally precede human testing.

Sadly, the schedule for a safe approved, vaccine (assuming this one works) is still 12-18 months out.

 

[quadraginta]

Well, they shut all stores at noon. Stores can open from 8 am until 12 noon now. No one on the street after 4pm (until 4 am) at risk of a minimum 15 day city jail stay. Yikes. I talked to the police today and they told me straight up that even though they know me they would have to take me in if I'm out.

ETA: this is a national order from the President of Guate (although the 12 noon tienda rule is a municipal edict).

I'm not sure this is a useful precaution. Possibly even contraindicated.

Shoehorning everyone's necessary shopping, like groceries, into a smaller time window isn't going to keep people from going out, it's just going to have more of them in the same place at once. I don't see how that is an improvement.

Grocery stores around here are closing early (at 20:00) but that is supposedly to give them extra time to clean, disinfect, and restock. That seems reasonable to me.

 

[arthwollipot]

I've been advised to work from home for the next two days. I have mobile devices, and there is a large backlog of work that requires no actual human interaction of any kind. At last I can do my work in my pyjamas!

That's a joke. I sleep naked.

 

[quadraginta]

But other people have said that even immune people can act as carriers because they spread what they pick up without any replication. You are not accounting for said immunity.

I know it has been said that asymptomatic people, either infected without symptoms at all, or infected but pre-symptomatic) act as carriers, but I haven't seen anyone claim that people who have acquired immunity are carriers. Perhaps some comments about still being contagious for some short period after recovery, but even that hasn't been clearly asserted.

If the immune continue to be able to spread infection then we're in real trouble. The only paths out will be to contract the disease or get a vaccine. And the vaccine path is quite a way out in the future.

The herd immunity thing won't work.

 

[Cheetah]

Holy &^*((* JREF you did it! Especially whoever posted the Hammer and the Dance link!