2018 US Senate Elections Thread

Mister Agenda said:
Maybe 100,000 Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida since Maria. I imagine on average that they may have a bone to pick with President Trump. The voters among them could tip a very tight race.
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That's going to be all about mobilizing and getting out the vote. Trump may have done the Dems a real solid with the Hispanic vote. Regardless of your particular national background, after this week, I don't see how you could be Hispanic and feel like your president sees you as a first class citizen.
 
Matthew Best said:
Not strictly relevant since M J Hegar is a Congressional candidate...
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The biggest news on the House side to me is Joe Crowley panicking so much over Alex Ocasio-Cortez, whom he was already outspending 10:1, that after Move On endorsed her his response was to go to Republican lobbyists for help. You couldn't ask for a clearer demonstration of the Democrats' problem.

A few other old established never-challenged-before names like Feinstein have faced similar challenges this year, from people who by a wide margin outperformed them per dollar spent, and beaten them anyway after collecting multiple times as much money from a few giant donors. The fact that they need to do it that way means they know they're not what voters who've paid any attention want.
 
I just requested my primary ballot for Arizona. I requested a Republican one. What to do? On the Republican side we have:

Martha "Now I'm Full On Trumpian" McSally
Kelli "Chemtrails" Ward
Joe "Taking a pardon means I'm guilty?" Arpaio

I'm torn who to vote for. In the general I won't vote for any of these. Any suggestions?
 
Trebuchet said:
If you're trying to harm the R's, I'd probably go with Sheriff Joe.
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That's one of those 'you might be sorry who you wish for' choices. Trump had some votes in the primary (not going to dig up a source) because it was thought he'd lose against Clinton.
 
slyjoe said:
I just requested my primary ballot for Arizona. I requested a Republican one. What to do? On the Republican side we have:

Martha "Now I'm Full On Trumpian" McSally
Kelli "Chemtrails" Ward
Joe "Taking a pardon means I'm guilty?" Arpaio

I'm torn who to vote for. In the general I won't vote for any of these. Any suggestions?
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Trebuchet said:
If you're trying to harm the R's, I'd probably go with Sheriff Joe.
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These are the figures from ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (looks too Dem leaning, or with methodological problems):

McSally vs Sinema ---> Sinema + 6
Ward vs. Sinema ---> Sinema + 10
Arpaio vs. Sinema ---> Sinema + 26

So, it's indeed Arpaio the weakest link

Tell me when the primary is and I'll look into the latter polls and tell you which ones look well done.
 
The republicans can forget about flipping Virginia. Corey Stewart has no chance winning a state Trump lost in 2016.
 
aleCcowaN said:
These are the figures from ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (looks too Dem leaning, or with methodological problems):

McSally vs Sinema ---> Sinema + 6
Ward vs. Sinema ---> Sinema + 10
Arpaio vs. Sinema ---> Sinema + 26

So, it's indeed Arpaio the weakest link

Tell me when the primary is and I'll look into the latter polls and tell you which ones look well done.
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August 28. Interesting about Arpaio; at one time I though Ward was last. Thanks for the info.
 
Delvo said:
The biggest news on the House side to me is Joe Crowley panicking so much over Alex Ocasio-Cortez, whom he was already outspending 10:1, that after Move On endorsed her his response was to go to Republican lobbyists for help. You couldn't ask for a clearer demonstration of the Democrats' problem.
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Crowley's gone.
 
The Don said:
Is that good news (the departure of one of the tarnished old guard), bad news (the loss of an experienced and safe pair of hands) or no news ?
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Depends who you prefer. I predict the Republicans will jump on Ocasio-Cortez' "socialist leanings". The district should be reliably Democratic, but who knows.
 
slyjoe said:
Depends who you prefer. I predict the Republicans will jump on Ocasio-Cortez' "socialist leanings". The district should be reliably Democratic, but who knows.
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It's a D +29 district. In this political climate that's a lock.
 
New poll:

Voters in three key Senate battleground states prefer the next Congress to be a check on President Donald Trump rather than a booster for his policy priorities, and only about a third say Trump deserves to be re-elected, according to new polls of Arizona, Florida and Ohio conducted by NBC News and Marist College.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/battleground-state-polls-find-more-voters-prefer-congress-check-trump-n886776?cid=public-rss_20180627

Kind of surprising how low "Does Trump deserve re-election" polled:

 
The Don said:
Is that good news (the departure of one of the tarnished old guard), bad news (the loss of an experienced and safe pair of hands) or no news ?
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Well, Donnie Johnny thinks it's good news. It seems Crowley never said anything nice about him so he's cheering that he lost. Let's see how he likes having him replaced by a Latina Socialist-Lite.
 
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