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2018 mid-term election

Foolmewunz said:
What's a "blue wave"? I expect the Dems to take over the House by a comfortable margin - like finishing the night with 12 to 20 more seats than the GOP. I expect the GOP to hold the Senate and even perhaps pick up a seat or two. And I expect a few very important governorships to go to the Dems, with a net pickup of 6 to 8.
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From where I sit, I think you pretty much nailed it.

So, what do you charge for a reading?

:p
 
Belz... said:
It was a very short wave. Nothing to Point Break about.
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More like a Long Wave, like a tsunami that's not very high but is 1000 miles wide relentlessly pushing inward when it finally comes ashore! Still not that fun to surf, though.
 
Maybe this has already been mentioned. From Sam Wang:

The NYT currently projects a national popular-vote margin of D+9.2%. The largest popular margin since 2008, larger than waves of 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014.
1994: R+7.1%
2006: D+8.0%
2008: D+10.6%
2010: R+7.2%
2014: R+5.7%

By historical standards, this a popular wave.
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I love gerrymandering.
 
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Steve said:
A change of 3 seats means 53-47 become 50-50. That would be significant.
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Just doing some math:

It looks to me like when the dust settles its going to be 54-46 after this election. Its a safe assumption that Alabama will go red in 2020. That means the dems will need to pick up 5 seats to go 50-50, while keeping every seat except AL. I don't see a plausible scenario where that happens. I'd love to be wrong though.
 
dudalb said:
The most important thing is now there is a major check on Trump. America stepped back from the brink.
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THIS

Losing the House is the really important defeat for Trump. He now no longer has it as his personal lap dog. The House writes all Federal funding and appropriations bills, and House committees will be able to demand (and will get) a number of documents that the GOP do not want anyone else to see, including Kavanagh's entire paper trail which will almost certainly contain proof of all the lies he told under oath, and Trump's Tax Returns

Perhaps most importantly, if Robert Mueller follows the lead of Leon Jaworski and delivers his report to Congress, it wont get buried by a Dem controlled House Judicial Committee the way it would certainly have been under a GOP controlled one.

There's a storm a comin', and I would not want to be in Trump's shoes when it arrives.
 
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smartcooky said:
THIS

Losing the House is the really important defeat for Trump. He now no longer has it as his personal lap dog. The House writes all Federal funding and appropriations bills, and House committees will be able to demand (and will get) a number of documents that the GOP do not want anyone else to see, including Kavanagh's entire paper trail which will almost certainly contain proof of all the lies he told under oath, and Trump's Tax Returns

Perhaps most importantly, if Robert Mueller follows the lead of Leon Jaworski and delivers his report to Congress, it wont get buried by a Dem controlled House Judicial Committee the way it would certainly have been under a GOP controlled one.

There's a storm a comin', and I would not want to be in Trump's shoes when it arrives.
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I have some hope that some Republicans who really despise Trump might realizes he it going to wreck both the GOP and classic conservatism in general.
 
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