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2018 mid-term election

Segnosaur, interesting how you cut off my quote in a running paragraph just before the last sentence, which was 'And if "it's the economy, stupid", well...'

Maybe think about the reason - I suspect it was subconsciously...

So I take it you folks expect a "blue wave"?
 
JoeMorgue said:
The "Baby Boomer Retirement Wave" is one of those "point where the crystal ball breaks" moments that's gonna be real hard to see what's on the other side of.

The Boomers are one of the few groups with enough size to when they act as a single force really tip the boat.
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Not to argue either side of the argument but we are past the real retirement peak for us "boomers". If the system's gonna break there should be some huge fissures in the wall and we aren't seeing any except for doom and gloom and "coming depression/recession/hyperinflation" prognosticators.

The chief boom years were '48 to '57 - starting to decline after that. We've already passed the 65 y.o. retirement age for people born up to '53 but there's still a statistical majority taking SSA at 62 y.o. That means that we've covered most of the peak birth years.

(Yeah, I'm bored. It's late and all I have to do is go to sleep and wake up to election results rather than looking for answers in the goat entrails of the internet.)
 
Foolmewunz said:
Not to argue either side of the argument but we are past the real retirement peak for us "boomers". If the system's gonna break there should be some huge fissures in the wall and we aren't seeing any except for doom and gloom and "coming depression/recession/hyperinflation" prognosticators.
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Totally agree. That's why we need to cut social security, medicare, and medicaid now. We can use that money for even more tax cuts for the super rich!
 
Childlike Empress said:
Segnosaur, interesting how you cut off my quote in a running paragraph just before the last sentence, which was 'And if "it's the economy, stupid", well...'

Maybe think about the reason - I suspect it was subconsciously...

So I take it you folks expect a "blue wave"?
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What's a "blue wave"? I expect the Dems to take over the House by a comfortable margin - like finishing the night with 12 to 20 more seats than the GOP. I expect the GOP to hold the Senate and even perhaps pick up a seat or two. And I expect a few very important governorships to go to the Dems, with a net pickup of 6 to 8.
 
phiwum said:
Thank you. Odd I missed a post by CE. Very strange.

ETA: In Garrison's favor, that is exactly how I imagine Trump might try to wield a hammer. It shows his expertise in matters physical.

ETA2: But what the hell is Peter Lorre doing in there, next to Hillary?
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Why are they locking up Conservatives in the Wheelhouse of all places?
 
I predict a "Red Wave" in that a clear majority of "hysterical women" will vote Democrat, thereby proving that women's suffrage was a bad idea that the newly conservative Supreme Court needs to fix.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
I predict a "Red Wave" in that a clear majority of "hysterical women" will vote Democrat, thereby proving that women's suffrage was a bad idea that the newly conservative Supreme Court needs to fix.
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The "blue wave" is black, white, and brown, and pink all over.
 
Does anyone know when the results will start coming in? And are there exit polls which can be relied on?
 
MikeG said:
Does anyone know when the results will start coming in? And are there exit polls which can be relied on?
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I don't pay attention to exit polls. I have never been polled leaving a voting location, never once in my life, so I honestly have no clue how or where these exit polls are conducted or how they arrive at their conclusions.

Results should begin coming in after 7PM ET, which I believe is when the first polls on the east coast begin to close and deliver their ballots to the local boards of elections to be tallied. (I say "begin" because polls are required by law to allow anybody already standing in line at the official closing time to vote regardless of how long it takes.)
 
MikeG said:
Does anyone know when the results will start coming in? And are there exit polls which can be relied on?
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I wouldn't worry about anything before 8 PM EST, and even then, buckle up and keep your hands and feet inside the ride at all times.
 
So it turns out I was in the wrong line and waited for no reason because the other place is where I needed to vote. Fortunately the line there was very short but I was the 178th voter that day (as of 11AM) which is more than every other time when I showed up in the evening.

The vote people said this was more than any election they’ve seen.
 
I am really curious to see how close (or far) the polling and estimates are to how it actually turns out. They were off in 2016 (some not as far as people think they remember), but they know that and have tried to adjust.

My impression is that polling is struggling with rapid changes in how people communicate. Especially younger people.

Plus, there are CTs out there about the polling being intentionally wrong in 2016, people who believe that (it is mostly a conservative CT) may refuse to participate or be dishonest to the polling staff.

I have my hopes for today, but I would not be shocked at all if the polling and predictions turn out to be pretty far off. I don't even pretend to know which way the errors may swing.
 
Two completely (as possible) apolitical points:

1. If this election goes deep into the Red, political polling as a concept is dead. It's on life support after 2016 already.

2. New Rule. If your election signs are still up a month after the election, you abdicate and everybody gets to punch you.
 
crescent said:
I am really curious to see how close (or far) the polling and estimates are to how it actually turns out. They were off in 2016 (some not as far as people think they remember), but they know that and have tried to adjust.

My impression is that polling is struggling with rapid changes in how people communicate. Especially younger people.

Plus, there are CTs out there about the polling being intentionally wrong in 2016, people who believe that (it is mostly a conservative CT) may refuse to participate or be dishonest to the polling staff.

I have my hopes for today, but I would not be shocked at all if the polling and predictions turn out to be pretty far off. I don't even pretend to know which way the errors may swing.
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From what I'm reading, the biggest problem with polling accuracy today is how few people care to participate, a self-selecting factor.
 
WilliamSeger said:
From what I'm reading, the biggest problem with polling accuracy today is how few people care to participate, a self-selecting factor.
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I also think people (especially younger people).... distrust might not be exactly the word but close... polls in that it's hard for them to distinguish between legit, professional polling and things like... marketing data polling and sleazy "Take this online quiz" stuff.

I do think there is less of an idea in the cultural mentality right now that polling can be serious and useful.
 
MikeG said:
Does anyone know when the results will start coming in? And are there exit polls which can be relied on?
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Exit polls are best ignored.
America is one hell of big country with several time zones.
Polls generally close at 7 or 8 local time but that means when the polls have closed on the east coast, they will b e open for three more hours on the West Coast.
There is a hot controversy as to whether the news networks should start making predictions and calling races while polls are still open.
So figure out when 7 PM EST is in the UK,and you know when to start watching .
 
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WilliamSeger said:
From what I'm reading, the biggest problem with polling accuracy today is how few people care to participate, a self-selecting factor.
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I admit, if a reporter stuck a microphone in my face when leaving the polling place I would be strongly tempted to say "none of your damn business".
 
dudalb said:
......... figure out when 7 PM EST is in the UK,and you know when to start watching .
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That's the small hours of the morning for us. I'm guessing a fairly good idea of the overall picture will have emerged by the time I'm up 5 hours later (midnight EST).

Just shows how different things are here, as exit polls are stunningly accurate here.
 
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I just found out what is going on Dodge City, and looks as if there are some really corrupt officals in office, and Dodge City needs a clean up just as badly as it did when it was "Queen Of the Cowtowns".
Let's hope there are some Wyatt Earps and Bat Masterson around to do the job.
 
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