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2018 mid-term election

Childlike Empress said:
Segnosaur, interesting how you cut off my quote in a running paragraph...
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The reason I cut off my quotation of your post is because I was responding to a particular statement that you made (why people would support the Democrats now if they didn't in the previous elections).
just before the last sentence, which was 'And if "it's the economy, stupid", well...'
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Yes, sometimes a strong economy benefits the party in power. But:

The jobless rate was already pretty low by the time Obama left office. Plus, while things like the GDP and stock market have increased in the past 2 years, those gains haven't necessarily been beneficial to the average voter (who have seen wages grow slowly, and seen purchasing power decrease thanks to inflation and Trump's tariffs.) The Republican tax cuts haven't given much benefit to the middle and lower classes, and are widely seen as "lets give cash to the wealthy".

So if you're a voter who isn't seeing any substantial improvement in their finances (but see the super-rich gaining even more wealth), AND you see the possibility of losing your health care, then "its the economy stupid" won't have the same impact.
So I take it you folks expect a "blue wave"?
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I expect the democrats to improve their performance in the house and in various state legislatures, while probably failing to gain a senate majority (mostly due to a disadvantage in the seats that are actually up for grabs.)
 
JoeMorgue said:
Two completely (as possible) apolitical points:

1. If this election goes deep into the Red, political polling as a concept is dead. It's on life support after 2016 already.
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Not really. Trump won within the margin of error in key battleground states.
 
Jerrymander said:
Not really. Trump won within the margin of error in key battleground states.
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I know Trump winning didn't like... break the concept of polling or statistics but I mean more in the sense of how the public and media react to polling, the whole polling fandom, and basically the 24 hour non-stop polling cycle that last from years out to... basically hours after the election.
 
90% of the public knows crap about how statistics (polling is a statistic based science) works.
 
MikeG said:
What does that mean?
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Usually it means that touch screen voting machines are so out of calibration that touching the screen for one candidate accidentally selects another. The touchscreen interface is not functioning properly.
 
It's a 99% porbablity A Democrat will win the Senate Race in Califorinia....:D


I actually voted for Democratic 2, De Leon over Feinstein simply because;

A. I feel that 25 years is along enough for anybody to be in congress and
B. Given Feinstein is 85 years old, the chances we will have to go the trouble of a special election before her term expires is pretty high...
C. the differences between them in terms of policy are pretty minor.
 
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If there's one thing I hope we can learn as a country today and take away from this election, it's the proper pronunciation of Beto.
 
Segnosaur said:
So if you're a voter who isn't seeing any substantial improvement in their finances (but see the super-rich gaining even more wealth), AND you see the possibility of losing your health care, then "its the economy stupid" won't have the same impact.
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Yeah, maybe, but your first argument countering what I wrote was about "They may have been suckered into Republican promises, but once they were exposed to the realities they have decided their previous votes were a mistake.", which directly relates to what you cut out of my post, so it seemed a bit strange.

It's not my impression that many people in the US have their immediate situation wrecked by the Trump presidency (contrary to what they are told on TV). Apropos, on prime time Sunday German television two days ago, the main journal for foreign issues had their whole episode devoted to the elections, and started with "fly-over country" people, not only Trump voters, euphoric about what the last two years meant for them.

Which is remarkable because that journal usually doesn't miss an opportunity to diss Trump.
 
I voted a little before 5, so before the after work crowd shows up. I was number 339 out of around 750. That's a really high turnout for a midterm election
 
Trump tells Democrats: "Sorry I lied about you so much. But even though I'm trying to blame you as much as me, we can get along together, can't we?"

From: https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...-racist-midterms-attacks-on-democrats-2018-11
Trump gave speeches branding the Democrats as radicalized socialists hoping to take away lawfully owned guns from US citizens and open the borders to immigrants he called "invaders," making false or unfounded claims along the way. But with Republicans' complete grip on government power poised to slip from Trump's hands, as polling aggregators give Democrats an 80% chance of winning the House of Representatives, he expressed regret over his tone....But on the eve of the fateful day, Trump began peppering his usual hard-charging rhetoric with self-criticism and what appeared as calls for reconciliation. "I do eventually want to unite," Trump said at a rally in Fort Wayne, Indiana, "but I'm driving them crazy."
 
Early CNN exit polling (it gets adjusted later, so take with large grain of salt):

Trump:

Approve: 44%

Disapprove: 55%



Strongly approve: 31%

Somewhat approve: 13%

Somewhat disapprove: 7%

Strongly disapprove: 47%



Vote to support: 26%

Vote to oppose: 39%

Trump not a factor: 33%



Right Direction: 41%

Wrong Track: 56%
 
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Childlike Empress said:
The Berniecrab carries the symbol of communism instead of its scissor. Pretty clear. The word I chose was correct, at least not false, just carlitos apparently didn't get the joke or just tried to be a bit contrarian.

So, that much for some requested light entertainment.

My prediction is that there certainly will be no blue wave, and maybe the Republicans will win even more. Because there is no reason anybody who rejected the Democrats in 2016 should vote for them now. In this regard Garrison is quite spot on. "Orange Man Bad" because *insert lie, irrelevancy or exaggeration* is all there was. And given the large potential of previous non-voters, and the unlikeliness of them switching from "system too rigged to care" to "let's vote Democrats", I don't think high voter turnout would necessarily be bad for Trump. And if "it's the economy, stupid", well...

We'll see. Would be ok to be wrong again for once after all that time of being right... ;)
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Well that overlooks a lot. Like how a huge number of Democratic voters sat out 2016 because they were convinced Hillary had already won it and they had jobs and kids to attend to.


There are also a lot of people that voted for Trump just because they thought it would shake the system up but clearly didn't think we'd have concentration camps, budget busting tax cuts for the wealthy, dangerous deregulation everywhere, wholesale attacks on the LGTBQ community or people put in charge of cabinet positions that are actively trying to destroy the country.


Then there are people who were previously apathetic about politics in general because generally stable people like the Bushes, Bill Clinton and Obama were always in charge but are now scared because Trump is clearly a deranged lunatic surrounded by even crazier psychopaths.


There are also Republicans that voted with the party thinking Trump would calm down and act like a president to all the people who now regret their vote since Trump is clearly trying to lead America into a civil war.


Then there are those desperate voters in rust belt states that believed Trump's lies that he was going to magically bring back all their old jobs. He hasn't because he can't. They are waking up to the nightmare they helped create and have huge regrets.



Lastly you have people that generally like Democratic policies that just hated Hillary. Well she is gone now.


dudalb said:
I admit, if a reporter stuck a microphone in my face when leaving the polling place I would be strongly tempted to say "none of your damn business".
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I was walking out of Walmart awhile back and a radio station shoved a microphone in my face asking what I thought of the Republican Party. They never aired my response because I think the burning hatred in my long response was just too much for them to risk.
 
More early CNN exit polling (it gets adjusted later, so take with large grain of salt):

Top issue:

Health Care: 41%

Immigration: 23%

Economy: 21%

Gun Policy: 11%


Condition of Economy:

Good: 68%

Poor: 31%


Family financial situation vs. 2 yrs ago:

Better: 35%

Worse: 14%

Same: 49%
 
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