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2018 mid-term election

For parties, Republicans underwater and Democrats up 50/46. But Pelosi has large negatives (again, early CNN exit).
 
Childlike Empress said:
So if you're a voter who isn't seeing any substantial improvement in their finances (but see the super-rich gaining even more wealth), AND you see the possibility of losing your health care, then "its the economy stupid" won't have the same impact.
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Yeah, maybe, but your first argument countering what I wrote was about "They may have been suckered into Republican promises, but once they were exposed to the realities they have decided their previous votes were a mistake.", which directly relates to what you cut out of my post, so it seemed a bit strange.
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Once again... the statement that you had posted had the exact claim: "Because there is no reason anybody who rejected the Democrats in 2016 should vote for them now.". Those are your very words.

Notice that you said "no reason"? Well that's exactly the reason I was giving you.

It's not my impression that many people in the US have their immediate situation wrecked by the Trump presidency (contrary to what they are told on TV).
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Wrecked? No. Harmed? Yes.

You don't need to see something extreme (like having to declare bankruptcy or losing your job) to feel you are not doing well. Having a few less dollars in your bank account at the end of the month because Trump's tariffs have caused prices to rise would be enough for some people to say "I'm worse off and regret voting republican".

From: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-the-trump-wage-slump/
As a result of the growth, nominal wages – that is, the numbers people see in their paychecks, before taking inflation into account – are growing. Over the past year, the average hourly nominal wage has risen 2.7 per cent. There are two problems, though. First, 2.7 per cent isn’t a great growth rate for nominal wages. It was rarely so slow in the entire second half of the 20th century, for example.... Second, nominal wages by themselves can’t buy a higher standard of living. Prices matter, too... Add it all up – faster inflation plus mediocre nominal-wage growth – and you get a stagnation in real wages.
Apropos, on prime time Sunday German television two days ago, the main journal for foreign issues had their whole episode devoted to the elections, and started with "fly-over country" people, not only Trump voters, euphoric about what the last two years meant for them.
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I cannot talk about a TV show that I have not seen nor know anything about. Perhaps the only people willing to be interviewed were those willing to say "things were better". Maybe those claiming they weren't trump voters actually DID vote for Stubby McBonespurs, and were lying to avoid embarassment.

In any case, people being interviewed don't exactly make a good statistical sample.
 
Some places are requiring photo ID just to get into the neighborhood where the polling station is:

As Counties Place Polls In Gated Communities, Florida Voters Are Left Out

"To even get in to the gate you needed to show an ID, before you even got to the polling place itself," Polizzi says. After voicing her concerns that the complex was being used as a public polling station, private security workers told her "too bad," she added.

Another voter tweeted a similar complaint about the same precinct, saying "I wouldn't show them ID and they held me at the gate and blamed me for holding the line. Precinct A014."
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CNN published an article saying a minimum of 207 Democratic House seats at the end, with 230+ seats (I can't remember the exact number.)

Will pollsters be out of work tomorrow?
 
Aaaaaaand, they're off.....


First numbers coming in; first of many. Donnelly slips into a trailing position in Indiana with less than 2% of the vote counted.

OMG! It's a red tidal wave. Woe is me! Woe is me! (I'm working up to that blue wave of Democratic tears that one clever member has been borrowing from the internet.)
 
Already conservatives on twitter are saying that Democrats are filling up buses at the border and paying illegals to vote Dem.
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
For parties, Republicans underwater and Democrats up 50/46. But Pelosi has large negatives (again, early CNN exit).
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She always does. Most of the people who hate her (and to be fair, a good portion of the people who *like* her) have no actual clue about her, in my experience.
 
So far super early looking good for Dems in Kentucky and Florida, good for Republicans in Indiana. Still way too early, but narratives start early.
 
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538's House odds are up, not much change for Senate.

House
19 in 20
Chance Democrats win control (95.0%)
1 in 20
Chance Republicans win control (5.0%)

Senate
1 in 6
Chance Democrats win control (16.5%)
5 in 6
Chance Republicans win control (83.5%)
 
Truth be told I think what gains the Dems make in getting back the Governerships is going to be a better long term indicator of which way the wind is blowing.
 
Prediction:

If the GOP Gain/keep control of the house and Senate, It will be 'The will of the people, and a great day'.

If the Democratic Party Gain control of the house and/or Senate, It will be 'because of Voter fraud, illegals, and fake news'.
 
Now Florida flips and 538 odds lower for Dems, but 25% of Miami still out so it's decidedly not called yet:

House
5 in 7
Chance Democrats win control (72.7%)
2 in 7
Chance Republicans win control (27.3%)

Senate
1 in 30
Chance Democrats win control (3.4%)
29 in 30
Chance Republicans win control (96.6%)
 
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Wow, 538's live odds are moving like crazy.

House
1 in 2
Chance Democrats win control (52.6%)
1 in 2
Chance Republicans win control (47.4%)

Senate
<5 in 100
Chance Democrats win control (<5.0%)
>95 in 100
Chance Republicans win control (>95.0%)
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
Wow, 538's live odds are moving like crazy.
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Nathaniel Rakich of 538 had this to say about that:

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
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Uh...why would a few east coast calls move any model that quickly? DOn't get me wrong, the East coast is clearly better than the West, screw you Dre and Snoop, but that sounds odd - not that I'm making any sort of prediction, and this is a decades fight in any event.
 
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Hey gang! I'm not following anything this evening, I made my symbolic gesture earlier today, I'll just wait and see how the dust has settled in the morning.
But I have been informed that Illinois has fired the Sith Lord and hired Jabba the Hutt as his replacement.
So that's it, it's official, Illinois is no longer just screwed, we're outright ******.
Back to this evenings political maylay, still in progress.
 
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